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Daily Commentary 11/6 MON (10:38pmET)

Date:
November 6, 2017

10:35pmET: I've uploaded the latest data for The Computer handicapping models (except for GB-DET related games). Clearly, the Giants are The Computer's best bet of the week, at this stage. I can't imagine anything will change that...unless Eli is benched which is doubtful. They are 1.5 dogs that we think are 8+ point favorites.

Seattle, Dallas, and Cincinnati are other plays sticking out -- Cincy for the upset over TENN is close to being the call by The Computer.

6:28pmET: The game that is popping out the most from The Computer (still have a 4 games to analyze, including teams involved in MNF tonight for next week)...and it caught me be surprise a bit, and then when I looked it made a lot of sense.

The Computer says Giants by 9+...but Vegas says -1.5 49ers at SF. The Computer says 'no way'.

Couple variables to watch -- is Janoris Jenkins back (minor)? Is Jimmy Garoppolo playing (probably not)?

The Giants have 7 losses...4 to some of the best teams in the NFL (LAR, DAL, PHI, SEA). They shoulda/coulda beat PHI, TB, LAC but lost. The Giants whacked the Broncos a few weeks ago out of nowhere AT Denver. This is a thought-to-be playoff team that lost to good teams early and then went off the tracks some.

The 49ers almost beat ARI and INDY...that's their claim to fame. Close scores with SEA and Rams, but really not close in-game.

This is a bad 49ers ravaged with injuries. Facing a Giants team with some talent and it's own issues but not so much they didn't whack the Broncos a few weeks ago and then had Seattle down the following week and let it get away.

Hard to know the Giants mentality going into this game, so I wouldn't go crazy on it...but it's the right play, as of right now.

Afternoon notes...

-- Denver putting Jake Butt and Chad Kelly on IR = they know this season is toast.

-- Denzel Perryman is back this week, and I bet he starts right away...and Jatavis Brown is further buried.

-- Mike Evans suspended one game...A.J. Green should be announced soon as well. It's going to be a crazy week trying to find a replacement for Tyreek Hill or anyone else on a BYE.

-- Corey Coleman expected back Week 11

1:30pmET: I've looked through 5-6 games for Week 10 so far, from a Handicapping standpoint. We have a lot of strong plays popping up but no super 'wow' ones. Most we disagree with the point spread by 3-5 points and that's strong for us to make plays, but the biggest discrepancy so far...and it's early because of defensive injuries/returns really helping this -- Seattle -5.5 over at Arizona we think is a 11-12 point Seattle win. But that could change on the injury reports.

11:28amET: Morning notes...

-- It doesn't look like Hue Jackson is done with Josh Gordon. Another Hue running his mouth event that isn't true. He of the 'guaranteeing' Cody Kessler was a star, and then DeShone Kizer. When will this guy be called to task for coaching failing QBs and losing every game he coaches? Hue may be done but Sashi Brown is meeting with Gordon soon and there are plans that he'll be ready to play Week 13.

I wouldn't be surprised if Brown is doing all this just to spit in Hue's face.

Gordon worth it in fantasy? I don't think so. I mean, you could have worst stashes but after years off, plus this QB/coach/team...Hue can fire back at Sashi by not playing him or targeting him.

-- Leonard Fournette suspended having something to do with a team photo. I see both sides of it...

1: NFL players have obligations, and if they pick and choose which ones to follow...the team picture would be half empty.

2: Who gives a $#&+ about a team photo anymore? Who's in charge of the team, my wife? Were all the moms there with their cellphones taking pictures? Did the players sign up for individual picture packages paid for by their parents...the same parents who have maxed out their cellphone capacity because of all the stupid pictures they have their kids already? Anyone have this argument with their 'significant other' (i.e. wife/girlfriend...because that's who it is 99.9% of the time)? Can anyone tell I've had this argument before and it still bothers me? Did I ever tell you about the time there was a family vacation involving extended family and then certain people (every female member of my family) thought it was a great idea for everyone to dress in white and get a family picture on the beach?

Let me just tell you -- when this happens to you, if it hasn't happened already, the whole family picture on the beach thing...over/under on people fighting because the guys are annoyed at the whole process = 4.7 couple fights. Over/under on divorces/breakups from the family pic on the beach idea = 1.2. Consider the 'real cost' before you go down this road.

The real cost for Doug Marrone is -- this is a wild overreaction that punishes the team (if they would have lost) and fans over something so trivial. Have him pay a big fine...or pay everyone to have the picture re-done next practice. Have the whole team run suicides in honor of Fournette.

And Leonard Fournette is not going to forget. Marrone thinks this establishes him as 'the boss'. Guess who will be still employed with the Jags 4 years from now and who isn't. Suspend the backup guard for this...not Fournette. You picked a fight with the wrong dude about the wrong issue.

===================

8:50amET:

Well, a major decision for me today. I am abruptly retiring from fantasy football/FFM.

I am retiring to my private island I bought from Richard Branson and all I will do is bet on football games and drink fruity drinks (non-alcoholic). I need to figure out how to get a Starbucks going on this isolated paradise. You can do such things when you're 10-0 in the last two weeks of Blazing Five...and 35-10 (77.8%) YTD on those picks.

What's the comment I get most from people now? Well, you know you're due for a really bad week, right? Thanks. Nothing like cheery, super-positive fantasy football to find the negative in anything...people who come from a land of "I lost this week because I'm dumb and cursed...it's my fault" and "I got so lucky with a win this week. Thank goodness X had a big game. You know I won't get that production ever again!" We all do this...why?

We gotta break this cycle of negativity.

What are you basing my eventual downfall on? You've been or seen somewhat hot before and then you/they regressed? You think everything has to revert to 'the mean'? My answers to that are: (1) Have you ever seen someone or been 77.8% on 45 bets halfway through a season? We don't know what happens from here. There is no precedent. And...I'm not throwing darts here. I've been constantly spinning the Rubik's Cube, changing what I think is important to my handicapping model. Studying the prior years of data and my own results. I've been tinkering with this all year and for years. I am picking these games on purpose with a system and strategy. I fully plan to go 5-0 next week. I know I might not. I know I will eventually lose A game. I think I'm like 18-2 the last 4 weeks. I could have said that after every week the last three weeks. Let's enjoy the ride!

With all that said...definite 0-5 coming this week. Bank on it! No one can be this hot.

I'll start analyzing data on Week 10 games today. If anything jumps out big, I'll send more money/let you know today so you can get a jump on it.

Game Plan for today...

-- Quick Notes from Sunday will post around 10-11amET

-- Dynasty Stash first report planned later tonight or possibly first think tomorrow. It will be the first 10-15 names and commentary. This entire week (and every week for the rest of the season) we will be adding names/commentary daily, and re-ranking as we see fit.

-- Daily Comments will start after noonET time, I think...just stuff I see fit to discuss.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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