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Daily Commentary 12/11 MON (7:18pmET)

Date:
December 11, 2017

7:16pmET: The Computer thinks big favorites MIN-NO-JAX aren't big enough favorites this week and are all potential Blazing Five candidates.

Last week the biggest Vegas favorites -- the Computer thought weren't big enough...Dallas and LAC, and they both blew out their opponents. New England tonight is the other.

We lost/were way off on the Jets but that was a pick 'em game most of the week. Big favorites are working.

4:33pmET: Vegas says Chargers -2.0...but The Computer says -9.0 LAC.

My big fear for LAC in a game like this would be -- going to KC in December...freezing cold. However, the early look at the weather is in the 50s.

What part of the field is KC better than Oakland? None.

LAC is allowing the lowest sack totals in the league, and is a top sack getter...KC is middle of the pack as an O-Line and bad rushing the passer. Everything but 'home' favors LAC here.

3:30pmET: Now the Saints are a great DST for Week 15...Josh McCown out for the season. You can rip up and burn your Robby Anderson tickets as well, I suspect. He'll get some hail mary shots from Bryce Petty and most of the targets...but not good ones. Marshon Lattimore on him to boot. Maybe garbage time hopes?

Vegas says Saints by 15 over NYJ this week...The Computer says Saints by 21+.

1:03pmET: The first point spread outlier of the week...

Vegas says Atlanta -6.0 at Tampa Bay...The Computer's early read is Atlanta -17.4 -- one of the biggest gaps of our 2017. Consider on the surface -- Atlanta is healthy and has everything to play for. Tampa Bay is all banged up, lost top 2 OLs 2 weeks ago, and lost Gerald McCoy this week. The Bucs haven't won a game with Jameis Winston starting since a narrow Week 4 win over sad NYG. Tampa Bay is 0-7 in Winston's last 7 starts.

This line has already jumped from -4.0 to -6.0 in a day.

12:17pmET: So many injuries to deal with this week... Every week it seems like there is a war with several casualties. Monday mornings we have count the dead, get the body bags, and then I have to sadistically figure out how to prosper from these injuries for fantasy. It's a gruesome business but someone has to do it.

I don't have much/any Carson Wentz stock, but I do see some poetry in me losing David Johnson and Aaron Rodgers right away, and yet still scrambling to the playoffs, and now facing teams next week who got to the playoffs in large part to Wentz...just in time for 'bye-bye Wentz' and 'hello, Rodgers'. If you own Wentz, sorry about your luck...I say unemotionally. I've lost so many players this year I don't have a sympathetic bone left in my body. I just watch games on Sunday's wondering which key guy I'm going to lose to injury this week. I hate to say I find delight when the main injuries are not mine for the week...because I'm a cold, bitter fantasy player.

So are you.

-- Going through the handicapping first pass later today and will report when I see anything that jumps out. The Computer's Blazing Five is 3-1 going into tonight with the Patriots. Another winning week 'on lock'.

You keep thinking The Computer is going to fail...that it can't possibly keep picking top games at a 70%+ clip, and that there will probably be a day where that comuppance happens....but https://youtu.be/pRlacveHlB4

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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