Game Lines

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Daily Commentary 12/19 TUE (10:55pmET)

Date:
December 19, 2017

Week 17 Running Backs 'Out of Nowhere' 

If Week 17 is your title game or the 2nd half of your two-week title game, than you might be interested in grabbing a RB at the last second Sat./Sun ahead...just taking a total flyer on developing situations that will make them white hot pickups Week 17, but you grabbed them Week 16 before anyone thought about it.

I have 11 names to consider, and I am going to add them one at a time throughout today...just for something to play around with today/this week. In order of my 'enthusiasm'/the potential payday...

*Not in order of talent but a mix of talent and the likelihood their team is even in the position to have this happen.

11) Mike Gillislee, NE v. NYJ -- Gillislee has been inactive for weeks, but with the Burkhead injury he'll be back taking goal-line work. If Week 17 is meaningless to NE, could they push Gillislee to 15-20+ carries to rest Dion Lewis? Low odds Week 17 is meaningless, BUT I put him on here as a reminder that he may matter some in nonPPR the next two weeks as part of the rotation anyway with Rex out.

10) Rod Smith, DAL v. PHI -- What if Dallas loses to Seattle this week? Then they're done. What if Ezekiel being rusty or whatever caused the loss? What if they go a Rod Smith tryout for Week 17?

9) Corey Clement, PHI v. DAL -- Clement looks like the best RB in that Philly stable. He may get the chance at a bigger workload if Philly locks up the #1 seed and Dallas is out of it completely.

8) Derrick Henry, TEN v. JAX -- If the Titans lose AGAIN, they might be officially dropped out of the race depending upon what all else happens with other teams. Either the losing streak, being out of it or just in it still but dying for weeks could force Mike Mularkey to finally stop already with DeMarco Murray. If they ever say Henry is starting people will lose their minds. FYI, Henry really isn't all that special...not in this offense.

7) Corey Grant, JAX v. TEN -- If the Jags lose this week, there's a chance they can still win the AFC South and lockup the #3 seed depending in KC and TEN. If Week 17 is meaningless, then Corey Grant is a potential stud start Week 17. He racked 100+ yards in his Week 17 effort last season.

6) Matt Breida v. LAR -- Week 17 will be meaningless for the 49ers, so why not give your rookie an extended look and give Carlos Hyde a break?

5) Tarik Cohen v. MIN -- Imagine how I will be to live with if the Bears announce Cohen is getting a full start for Week 17!! Why not give Jordan Howard, the franchise back, a break?

4) DeAndre Washington, OAK v. LAC -- A low-rated run defense, possibly toast for the playoffs, and Washington getting a start as Lynch sits? In a game Lynch was out suspended, earlier this season...Washington had 10 target/8 catch game 8-62-1/10 and 6-26-0.

3) Marlon Mack, IND v. HOU -- Frank Gore has to take a game off at some point this season?

2) Charcandrick West, KC v. DEN -- KC may be locked into the #4 seed no matter what, that's a real possibility going into Week 17.

#1 is going to blow your mind, and probably never come true...

1) Jamaal Charles, DEN v. KC -- picture it now...Meaningless game to Denver. They pre-announce Jamaal to be the lead back to face his old KC team in what might be his final game...and KC in desperate need (if they lose this week). Picture-esque, no? Odds it happens = 1%. Fantasy scoring if it does = awesome.

10:14pmET: Getting a lot of questions on free agency WRs...Mike Wallace, Martavis Bryant, Keelan Cole, Adams/Cobb, and Tyrell Williams

-- I think Keenan Allen is playing this week, so we'll change that if the info changes.

-- Adams/Cobb...Hundley + Vikings = not good

-- Mike Wallace I love this week...IF CB Rashaan Melvin is not playing, but that's becoming a little iffier every hour. I only kinda like it if Melvin plays.

-- Martavis Bryant is the most experienced with Ben with this no-Antonio crisis. I could see Bryant popping a 7-150-2 line easily this week...or a 4-45-1.

-- You know I love Keelan Cole but I get afraid they swing right to Dede Westbrook because that's what the entire football community says to do. But Cole has so many more reps with Bortles and he didn't just have a good game because he was left open last week (or weeks)...he's making big catches and plays. He's SO good. I just fear they'll Tyrell Williams him this week (aka 3-4 targets). We'll see. He could be 'the man' for two weeks and a star is born. He could get snubbed because 'Dede mania'.

10:53pmET: WR projection changes to a few players, and changes noted on the spreadsheet.

9:03pmET: Thanks to Atlanta not being able to stop Tampa's late drive, The Computer lost last night...falling to 3-2 on the week. A winning week, but still...I hate it when the team I play wins, leads by 2 scores most of the game, but then gives up some late junk and blows the cover. It happens. The Computer still sits over 70% on the Blazing Five.

This week's best plays with so-so injury info early in the week...

LAC, ATL (Computer shows an ATL outright win right now), CHI, CAR, PIT

7:42pmET: Week 16 Projections Posted

*Mike Wallace more assuming Rashaan Melvin will not play this week

*Denver more assuming Paxton Lynch starting

Afternoon Notes...

-- Tampa Bay lost another OL for this week, that makes 3 down. That can't be good for anything for the Bucs...but nice for the opposing DSTs.

-- I'm listening to everyone rail on the Steelers like they're the worst team in the history of football and the Patriots are so prepared and cerebral and just out-thought the Steelers/Tomlin because of last week.

So...if Jesse James catch holds, and the Steelers win -- then what the hell would everyone be talking about? The Steelers lost by an inch, a slight shift of a ball, a frazzled last second. So the smartest team in the history of football facing the dumbest, apparently, won by a fraction of a whisker of a moment. The gap between smartest team ever and dumbest is one shift of a ball crossing the goal line? Ridiculous. I see this every week and it's what makes bad bettors and bad fantasy GMs...panic attacks over one event, one narrative.

One of my keys to betting success this season, incorporating more of the public and their biases and their overcompensation/hysteria into my algorithms.

Yes, the Patriots are miles ahead of the Steelers because Jesse James shifted his catch crossing the goal line for the win. I guess Mike Tomlin is the real genius. He's, apparently, so dumb and did such little preparation and yet came within a breath of beating a team that studies all the time/never makes any mistakes. It's like a student studying all week for hours on end for a final exam and getting a 100, and then an idiot like me doesn't study at all and walks in and gets a 99. The 100% scorer ranked higher on the class test rankings but who's really smarter?

Morning Notes...

-- I'm hearing more and more A.J. McCarron to start chatter for Cincy, for the last two games. That won't happen, according to 'sources' I have -- as the Bengals want to hide McCarron's value (it's artificially propped up today). He's a restricted free agent, so Cincy can force other teams to pay up to sign him and get a good draft pick in exchange.

-- Green Bay signed back QB Joe Callahan, and is trying out free agent QBs (like Matt McGloin)...Aaron Rodgers is absolutely not playing this week.

-- If the Colts weren't bad/injured enough...Center Ryan Kelly went on IR officially, not a shock. Leading LB of late Jon Bostic went down now as well. The Colts have a bad defense and now lose another linebacker. Ravens run game vs. IND this week. Mike Wallace this week with the Colts shutdown CB likely out again (R. Melvin).

Today's Agenda...

-- Week 16 Projections planned to post between 6-8pm ET

-- I will lay out the next few weeks and months FFM/CFM as best I know it today...can you believe it's NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft time?

-- Various game recaps

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>