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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Daily Commentary 12/4 MON (6:48pmET)

December 4, 2017

6:40pmET: Handicapping item...if Tyrod Taylor is OK, not a game-time decision, etc. -- The Computer says Bills by about 10.0 over Indy this week. No official line yet because of Tyrod. If you see Tyrod is 'good' and this line like 3-5 (?...could be 7.0+, we'll see) with Bills favored, then this could be a nice opportunity. Bills have a ton to play for...and Indy is battered with key injuries. With Nathan Peterman starting -- avoid all of this.

-- OG Kyle Long going on IR for the Bears...another hit to this team.

-- OG Andy Levitre out 2-3 weeks is massive for the Falcons fading playoff hopes.

-- Marcus Peters could get suspended for Week 14, and that would basically give Oakland a big leg up in this game. I don't think KC mgt. has the balls to do it. This should be a win for KC, but if Peters is out...it's very much at risk of a loss.

1:53pmET: The first wager of the week that jumps off the computer screen...Jets at Denver is a pick 'em. The Computer says Jets by 9.0 if either Siemian or Lynch starts.

I lost two big bets last week...OAK and LAC...two heavy favorites, both won but by 3 or so short of 'covering'. No shame in that. The Computer was on the right trail the win wasn't big enough, I can live with that.

We had a 4-win win streak of our spread vs. the Vegas line where we're 8 or more points ahead on the favorite broken with the OAK win-but-not-cover event Sunday with NYG.

1:33pmET: Surprise! Ben McAdoo got fired. Then they fired the long-time GM...he fostered McAdoo to this embarrassing season so he got caught in the aftermath. The thing that struck me about all this is... There will probably be 7-10 head coaches and 4-6 GMs fired this offseason, and since no one from college worth a salt wants NFL jobs and the GM pool is just a rehash of the existing group that are all horrible at their jobs...who can these teams hire to make a difference?

If any team is going to hire a tarditional blue-blood, 'experienced' and 'right pedigree' person for the job it's going to be NYG...and thus they won't go anywhere for a few years. NYG moving into the #2 spot in the draft and taking Sam Darnold will ensure NYG will not win a Super Bowl for another 5+ years easy. Darnold is a fraud top pick QB. Even Nick Saban going pro wouldn't help because the pro game is not built for Nick Saban's style...not for long anyways. He's better than most anyone regurgitated from the NFL system but he'd wear out his welcome faster than Jim Harbaugh.


Well, that was a cool week. At just the right time...one of the biggest scoring differential weeks I've ever experienced across the FFM boards. One part 'our' guys kicked ass (Tyreek, Russell, Engram, Tucker, etc.) and the 'others' (Wentz, Julio, Hunt, etc.) faltering at just the right time...the good week also helping pickup weak output from Brady, Cooks, etc. Hopefully, it all shook out well for you and your scratch and claw, or global domination, march to the playoffs.

Morning Notes...

-- Ravens top CB Jimmy Smith injured/suspended for PED use explains a lot and changes fantasy football. The Ravens are a hoax of a defense -- beating up the weak and getting popped by the strong. Without inflated performance by PEDs Smith this defense is going to take a massive hit. All clear for the Steelers Week 14. Josh Gordon Week 15 and T.Y. Hilton Week 16 would now be solid starts vs. shaky ones.

-- Be prepared for life without Matt Stafford...his leg injury lingers and nerve damage to his hand in this game...the Lions are about done and a wounded Stafford will roll out this week, I'm sure he'll try to play, but if another loss he might get shutdown. Stafford playing thru a hand injury and/or going out kills off Marvin Jones and Golden Tate to some degree. It helps Theo Riddick as the safe check down, but it destroys Riddick if Stafford goes out.

Once the Lions are out of it I suspect they'll give Tion Green and Dwayne Washington a deeper audition to stay on the roster. If Ameer Abdullah returns, I pray they release Washington this week (very possible).

-- C.J. Fiedorowicz suffered another concussion. I suspect he will be put on IR and TE Stephen Anderson may start to matter some in deeper roster leagues.

Today's Agenda...

-- Quick Notes will post before noon ET

-- 2-3 game recaps to post today on a very busy week...no more BYE weeks, so I have no hours to spare watching/seeking/learning for the improbable playoff teams many of us found ourselves with after a slow start. Persistence not panic paid off for many this season.

-- I'll start tinkering with the Handicapping for Week 14. The Computer suffered it's first losing Blazing Five in maybe 10 weeks(?)...a 2-3 record, and 'bet of the year' (instant/guaranteed to lose when that label hits) Oakland couldn't cover in their win v. the NY Genos. If anything stands out, I'll point it out.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>