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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Daily Commentary 12/5 TUE (8:15pmET)

December 5, 2017

8:15pmET: Week 14 Projections 1.0 posted.

Note -- Assuming Zach Ertz out more than in this week.

*Week 14 projections may be closer to 8pmET as we wade through as much data as we can for version 1.0. I can tell you...I have been fighting with defensive data all day. There's a case for like 10+ teams to be the legit DST this week...not kidding. And some of the names...yikes.

5:25pmET: Just an FYI when you see the Buffalo Bills-related projections this week -- we are leaning kinda strongly that Nathan Peterman will start this week. Thus the Colts have a decent DST rating and the WRs/TEs down for the Bills, etc.

Weather Check:

-- No shocking weather outlook for any game this week. There are a couple 'cold' scenarios to consider -- Colts at Bills 15-20 degrees. Packers at Browns 25-30 degrees. Ravens at Steelers 25-30 degrees.

2:40pmET: Juju Smith-Schuster out...you want to say Martavis Bryant is a sleeper, but he's not been that much in the weeks JSS was out/hurt.

Note: Looking at the first pass of The Computer's QB rankings for this week...Mama Mia, is this going to be the strangest week of the season...

Morning Notes...

-- This has been the single worst regular-season winning percentage season of my fantasy career (note to self: cancel the radio advertising campaign where we say DOMINATE your opponents 64 times in a :30 seconds). However, oddly, it's been one of the most fun seasons...because it's been one of the most maddening. I've sweated so many Sunday night and Monday night games. Won and lost so many close calls. Been picking and dropping players all throughout the week. Have picked up and then dropped gold bars in Weeks 3-4-5-6 like an Alvin Kamara, etc. because my injury desperation and must-win weeks forced me to play for the week not for weeks to come. And somehow...I've made about the same percentage of fantasy playoffs as normal. Terrible records, terrible seeds, (terrible outlook for Week 14) but I made it...and I've heard from so many people who've done the same.

I'm going to remember this season forever...like my grandparents look back and share stories about growing up in The Great Depression.

You didn't quit on your 0-2, 1-3, 2-4, 3-5 team and with all the weekly maneuverings you somehow clawed past the pack and made it to the playoffs in better numbers than I would've ever expected. Kudos for a little luck and a little guts on some pickups/drops -- and you did it. Against all odds.

We have nothing to lose now because we didn't think we'd be here. We probably shouldn't be here. 6-7 shouldn't be a playoff team. 7-6 shouldn't win a division. You shouldn't have lost David Johnson and 3-4 other key players before Week 2. BUT this year is a total chaos and that's just the way this year was. For all those into the playoffs -- this is what it's all about...outsmarting your opponents with the odds stacked against many of us at various points this season.

The odds are stacked against in Week 14...so, we have to keep fighting. Winning ugly is a good thing. Time to get ugly...

*For those that cruised to division titles and BYEs...of course you did! Another year of FFM domination!

*For those who fell short of the playoffs. I got plenty of excuses about injuries, etc., Just play this video and imagine this would be me trying to explain to you what went wrong this season: http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/irwin-mainway/n8641

Actually, it's not your fault. I'll do like the NFL head coaches who lose 40-0 with player's who suck and say "I did a bad of coaching!" It's not you... https://youtu.be/2uAj4wBIU-8

Just trying to lighten the mood for the crestfallen today...

-- I never thought I'd be considering the Jets, Packers, or Cowboys DST in Week 14...but here I am, in leagues where I've relied upon the Steelers DST -- and took another blow last night with Ryan Shazier, after they lost Joe Haden a few weeks ago. Today's game recaps will be dedicated to NYJ-GB-DAL DSTs. Possibly Tampa Bay if Stafford is down. Possibly the Colts if Peterman returns.

Plus, we have a Week 15 issue with the PITT DST facing NE.

Those that grabbed the Chargers to play Weeks 11 and 13, around the Steelers with the thought to then ditch LAC this week...we may be keeping LAC and ditching PITT. I'm not sure yet. It's all very confusing. I need this whole day to go to the mountain and speak to the Lord and come back down with the answers to all these DST questions.

Hey, you laugh but where do you think I came up with Jags and Steelers DST off the bat this season and then the LAC grab for that BUF weeks? I'm not that smart. it's divine intervention.

What a mess.

What fun for me! I secretly love this back against the wall stuff.

-- The Bears worked out 3 free agent tight ends yesterday, I'm not sure who's secretly hurt. It doesn't really matter for FF anyway.

-- Good news from SF -- Garoppolo to remain the starter, per the coach.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>