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Daily Daily Commentary 10/25 WED (11:53pmET)

Date:
October 25, 2017

*Notes as I see them/the mood strikes -- about football or otherwise. Updating throughout (latest time in title). Moving fast so forgive typos...

11:45pmET: Just to whet our collective whistles more: http://m.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Marquise-Goodwin-People-underestimate-me-as-a-complete-football-player/4ebd3838-13bd-43d9-9387-d01b4f978a46

http://m.49ers.com/news/article-2/49ers-WR-Marquise-Goodwin-Has-the-Chance-to-Be-Special/2d217fe8-bdd1-43f8-9d56-730eb75e1236

I'm not trying to talk you into this, I'm trying to consider myself whether to make this foray or not in certain spots. Trying to learn all the background on the guy I can.

10:50pmET: it's getting late and I'm not sure when I'll finish my SF-DAL recap, but let me post the Marquise Goodwin take raw...unedited (didn't even re-read it, here's is my one-take writing)...for more clarity as you consider your waivers run tonight...

-- OK, let’s talk Marquise Goodwin. Let’s go back in time.

A nondescript WR for the University of Texas for four seasons. Everyone knew he was fast – a Track & Field star and Olympic runner. Dangerous kick returner but only returned one kick in college for a TD in 44 returns. The knock on Goodwin was “Typical Olympian…great speed, soft, poor hands.”

At the NFL Combine, he ran a 4.27 40-time and people looked past all the concerns. At his Pro Day, he ran a 6.66 three-cone which the 4.27 and the 6.66 times – we’re talking off the charts. We’re talking Tyreek Hill-like. Goodwin was drafted #78 overall by Buffalo in 2014.

In Buffalo, he was lost. He was in the E.J. Manuel/MKyle Orton/Doug Marrone era, and then in the Tyrod Taylor/Rex Ryan era. Let’s just say, Goodwin wasn’t going to progress much in his career with those guys masterminding the offenses.

Goodwin caught 3 TD passes on 17 catches as a rookie…he had some sweet lighting strike plays/games/ Like, one catch, long TD…nothing else. A ghost. He barely played in 2014 and 2015. In 2016, he had his bets season – 29 catches, 3 TDs. Rex Ryan was too preoccupied with Percy Harvin to recognize Goodwin as a similar/better talent, apparently.

Four quiet years in Buffalo, and all the whispers of ‘Track & Field’ and the lackluster Bills years. I assumed he wouldn’t get much beyond the minimum deal as a free agent. The new 49ers regime ponied up a 2-year/$6M deal with $4.5 guaranteed. Odd for a no-name WR of little output. Odd, but obviously there was some serious interest and commitment by the new regime.

Goodwin was hurt off and on in the preseason and didn’t see much action. He came out of the gates slow, but seeing some targets – six targets each of the first two games this season but for only 3 catches and 21 and 26 yards with no TDs. He started losing ground to Aldrick Robinson…it appeared.

Then, BAM…Goodwin struck for 5 catches, 116 yards against the Colts…sweet, but a one-time heat up versus the Colts is not confirmation of anything big. In Week 6, he followed that up with a 2-catch, 26 yards day, 5 targets…but did get a jet sweep/carry for 6 yards. Week 7, the C.J. Beathard era begun and Goodwin say 8 targets for 80 yards. A sweet catch and run 50+ yard play he nearly took to the house. Several nice catches after that. Seemed to be involved in the offense every series…even as Dallas shellacked them.

Fantasy people are taking notice of the 116 yards three weeks ago, and then this 80-yard effort Week 7. Things are beginning to stir. But not enough… ESPN says he’s barely 5% owned as of Tuesday. No one is really taking the bait. Why should they? A nothing in college, or in Buffalo, or for weeks with the 49ers…and who cares about the 49ers anyway. We barely care about Pierre Garcon.

My pitch is this:

Sure, you could go Robert Woods or JuJu Smith-Schuster or hold Danny Amendola (examples), and you’re not crazy to do so, but what if Marquise Goodwin is about to take a step? Not 2-3-4 steps, just a step. A guy paid a lot to play for SF…a guy starting to see nice targeting levels. A guy who has off-the-charts athleticism. A guy who plays for a team down a lot and throwing a lot. If I could get three garbage time catches from Goodwin, I like my chances that he’s going 50+ yards on one of them. If he starts to pop, he’ll start to see handoffs, etc. He’s a long shot at something special. I know what I’m getting with a lot of other guys. I’m not sure what will happen if Goodwin hits…but it could be amazing.

I also got excited about Trent Taylor a few weeks ago, so be careful listening to me. I might be right about the player, but what the team does is a whole other piece of the puzzle.

I’m more into Ted Ginn this week because I know he’s a WR2, WR3 floor. But where I can take a week or two look at Goodwin to see if I unearth something magical…well, I’m a sucker for these WRs that can take carries as running threats because they are so athletic.

 

FIN

7:20pmET: Week 8 projections Updated

5:30pmET: Oakland called up Elijah Hood. This move will come with the "Well, Marshawn Lynch is suspended and they need an RB." No, they don't. They can survive one game without Lynch...they just did so essentially last week. I wonder if this speaks to some other move coming...

Hood is OK, but this OAK running attack is nothing I'd want a big stake in. I don't think Hood is the future but he work in a spot, but no way he gets a big push here. He's have to be hot right from the jump. I didn't see 'it' in college or the preseason. Useful. NFL-worthy. Being a rookie people will get initially excited if he shows anything.

3:55pmET: I've teased talk about Marquise Goodwin and I'm sure you've seen him mentioned on the various 'waiver reports' flying around. Apparently no one is buying it that I see. FFM'ers mostly went with Ted Ginn this week on waivers if they needed a WR, plus might be holding Robert Woods or Sterling Shepard for their WR needs. I re-watched DAL-SF today...I'm starting to become a believer, to a degree in Goodwin. I'd recommend staking a position in him if you can do so. Just to see. I'll explain more in the SF-DAL recap tonight.

11-5-8 for targets the past three weeks. CJ Beathard is not bad, Dallas is just that good. It's shaky so don't jump overboard but there might be something here...especially for those of you where TD distance matters. He is that 'next best guy' at WR still on waivers, and deserves that label but there might be a little magic here. i'm not sure so it's a very cautious kick the tires -- especially if your season is going south and you need a boom-bust move. Athletically, this guy is the real deal...like Tyreek Hill fast. Like he was an Olympic sprinter fast.

he may be worth a flex start this heavy BYE week.

3:00pmET: The Bears have traded for Dontrelle Inman. Of all the WRs I could think to trade of...Inman wasn't one of them. he's a serviceable body. I would not rush out to get him unless you are in a super-deep league. There's no way Inman is walking into that offense with no working relationship with Trubisky and mattering for fantasy. Inman isn't that good anyway. It's better than nothing but not by a lot. It's worth noting but I can't see gold here. pick him up and see for a week...or trade him before he ever plays.

Morning Notes...

-- Jason Katz notes posted (home page, scroll down)

-- SEA-NYG recap posting in the next few minutes.

-- I saw a note that Kevin Byard won the Defensive Player of the Week. We projected as a top 3-5 IDP DB for 2017...and we're almost there -- he's #5 in PPG right now, a blink away from #2. 

-- The Bucs defense is ravaged with injury...Noah Spence is going to miss several weeks and Robert Ayers is playing on one knee. Of all the defenses in the NFL, when I see one of my players is facing Tampa, I get giddy...them and the Colts are the worst i.e. the best for your weapons to face right now. Carolina gets the Bucs this week.

Top 3 fantasy PPG players at each position YTD (PPR view):

QB = Prescott, Watson, A. Smith

RB = Gurley, Hunt, Fournette

WR = A. Brown, Hopkins, OBJ

TE = Ertz, Gronk, Brate

DST = JAX, DET, LAR

PK = Zuerlein, Butker, Succop

DL = D. Lawrence, Cam Jordan, Ingram

LB = Telvin Smith, Z Brown, Mosley

DB = Reshad Jones, Tyvon Branch, Hyde

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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