Discussing the Green Bay-DST Trinity of Pairings for Redraft/Best Ball 2022…

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Discussing the Green Bay-DST Trinity of Pairings for Redraft/Best Ball 2022…

 

Disclaimer: I am into the Green Bay Packers defense being the best single defensive unit in the NFL, today. Now, when I make that proclamation in seasons past…somewhere between 2-5 key defenders will tear their ACLs in August/September to ruin it…I have that power sometimes…but looking past that – I want to be with the Packers defense, from everything I see as an evaluator.

The Packers have the best CB trio/group in the NFL, one of the best ever potentially…and the other 8 defensive guys are pretty nice too. Their offense can support their defense via time of possession and playing from ahead. Also, as the season wears on…you like a FF DST playing in (potential) bad (sloppy or just freezing cold) weather – and the Packers will be outdoors/in the upper Midwest or Northeast most all of November-December-January. Week 16 they are at Miami, is the only 2nd-half of the season respite from outdoors/cold+.

I like everything about this defense, as you know/as I’ve been discussing since the start of the calendar year.

BUT… I also know that schedule (ease of) is more important, in picking/running with a DST for FF. And that’s where an issue lies with the Packers-DST…Weeks 1-3 aren’t great schedule-wise for GB. I don’t want to start out the FF season in the hole, so I have been looking at ways to have my cake/Packers-DST and eat/use it too. And three teams/DSTs stand out as great schedule alignments to run a pairing with the Packers-DST to get past the choppy start and then roll on through the few speed bumps later.

Let’s take a look (in random order) at three favorable options to pair with Green Bay DST, and we’re gonna look at them via Green Bay’s schedule then the pairing defense’s nice matchup alternative noted where the GB schedule is weak, and the pairing DST is strong/er…

 

*Note: If you think ‘who cares about DSTs enough to tie up two roster spots on them?’ I would say to you – there’s huge FF-scoring swings in playing the right DST week-to-week and it’s critically important for a week-to-week edge. AND I’d ask you to ponder -- are you getting trapped in the ancient, classically conditioned thought ‘I don’t want to use a roster spot on a DST when I can try for an RB who might break through!” That is true, but 99% of the time it doesn’t work out that you landed the gem RB out of nowhere…or not for long. With two DSTs melding into one super-machine (if you get it right) you would have a huge advantage over opponents more than/right up there with having the best TE or QB, etc.

You might not deploy a two-DST plan upfront, and that’s OK…but don’t write it off because it doesn’t ‘feel’ right.

This is also needed analysis/consideration for those in Best Ball, etc.

The alternative to sitting on a 2nd DST all season just for these matchups is just picking up a DST for that specific ‘soft’ week.

 

*Pairings listed below in random order, not a hierarchy/rank…

 

 

1) Green Bay Packers-DST with the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

I also love what the LAC DST is becoming…on paper. They are my other argument for possible ‘best’ defense in the NFL, personnel-wise in 2022. And it just so happens they are a great pairing on schedule as well…with one exception.

Week 8 when GB is at Buffalo, LAC is on a BYE…that sucks. But the rest of it is so strong that you can play/stream a 3rd DST for that moment…or suck it up with GB in the bad matchup.

There are four projection scenarios where you would use LAC over GB in 2022, on paper/all things being equal…possibly five matchups in 2022, but LAC could get strong enough/be talented enough to be a real option in a few other matchup spots as well.

Green Bay DST is tracking #10-12 ADP overall among DSTs as of this writing, but I bet they rise to the top 5-8 as the mainstream wakes up by September. LAC DST is tracking outside the top 12, so the ‘price’ of doing this is fairly achievable; right now.

 

 

GREEN BAY

Week 1 = @ MIN (LAC vs. LV/Carr)

Week 2 = CHI

Week 3 = @ TB (LAC vs. JAX/Lawrence) 

Week 4 = NE

Week 5 = NYG (at Europe)

Week 6 = NYJ

Week 7 = @ WSH (LAC v. SEA/Lock)

Week 8 = @ BUF (LAC on a BYE)

Week 9 = @ DET

*From Week 10 on, Green Bay will be playing outdoors/in the possible cold and mess all but Week 16. This is an advantage for the GB DST, in theory.

Week 10 = DAL (LAC at SF might wind up better?)

Week 11 = TEN

Week 12 = @ PHI

Week 13 = @ CHI

Week 14 = *BYE* (LAC vs. MIA/Tua)

Week 15 = LAR (LAC v. TEN/Tannehill)

Week 16 = @ MIA

Week 17 = MIN

Week 18 = DET

 

 

2) Green Bay Packers-DST with the CAROLINA PANTHERS

This is perhaps my favorite GB DST pairing. The Panthers-DST has a good CB group as well, if the C.J. Henderson reports are accurate, and the Panthers-DST fits the GB schedule weak spots perfectly. Just when you need GB-DST help, Carolina has a wonderful matchup to go to…not just OK/good enough matchups -- they have terrific matchups to counter the GB DST issues.

You would use Carolina five times in the season, on paper/projected.

Green Bay DST is tracking #10-12 ADP overall among DSTs as of this writing, and I mentioned already that I think they will rise to the top 5-8 as the mainstream wakes up…while the Panthers-DST is not even on people’s radars, not in the top 20 ADP among DSTs right now -- so, you should be able to do this pairing without much cost/resistance.  

 

 

GREEN BAY

Week 1 = @ MIN (CAR vs. CLE/Brissett)

Week 2 = CHI (CAR @ NYG)

Week 3 = @ TB (CAR vs. NO/Winston) 

Week 4 = NE

Week 5 = NYG (Europe)

Week 6 = NYJ

Week 7 = @ WSH

Week 8 = @ BUF (CAR @ ATL/Mariota)

Week 9 = @ DET

*From Week 10 on, Green Bay will be playing outdoors/in the possible cold and mess all but Week 16. This is an advantage for the GB DST, in theory.

Week 10 = DAL

Week 11 = TEN

Week 12 = @ PHI

Week 13 = @ CHI

Week 14 = *BYE* (CAR @ SEA/Lock)

Week 15 = LAR (CAR vs. PIT/Pickett)

Week 16 = @ MIA

Week 17 = MIN

Week 18 = DET

 

 

3) Green Bay Packers-DST with the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Philly-DST pairing is interesting, and it was an idea pointed out to me by an FFM audience member. When I first proposed GB pairing general concepts a few months ago, Philly hadn’t yet signed James Bradberry…so I like the Philly defense even more with Bradberry.

But I don’t love the Week 1 at Detroit because I respect Detroit’s O-Line and QB…but PHI-DST might be better than trying to tackle Minnesota at Minny on a big Week 1 stage. I don’t love Week 3 at WSH either. I don’t hate it, but I don’t fully love it. The weaker Weeks 1 and 3 options from Philly make it not as exciting for me.

However, on the upside -- they hit all the GB weak spots well overall…and Weeks 4 and Week 18 are some possible PHI-DST options as well. We might get 7 usages out of Philly, that’s good…but GB is the lead dance partner in this so I’m not trying to avoid GB in general -- just trying to avoid the really bad matchups and bye for GB-DST.

Green Bay DST is tracking #10-12 ADP overall among DSTs as of this writing, and we think they rise to the top 5-8 as the mainstream wakes up. The Eagles-DST is tracking outside the top 15 ADP among DSTs, so this is another low/no resistance opportunity to pair.

 

 

GREEN BAY

Week 1 = @ MIN (PHI at DET)

Week 2 = CHI

Week 3 = @ TB (PHI at WSH)

Week 4 = NE (PHI v. JAX?)

Week 5 = NYG (Europe)

Week 6 = NYJ

Week 7 = @ WSH

Week 8 = @ BUF (PHI vs. PIT)

Week 9 = @ DET (PHI at HOU?)

*From Week 10 on, Green Bay will be playing outdoors/in the possible cold and mess all but Week 16. This is an advantage for the GB DST, in theory.

Week 10 = DAL

Week 11 = TEN

Week 12 = @ PHI

Week 13 = @ CHI

Week 14 = *BYE* (PHI at NYG)

Week 15 = LAR (PHI at CHI)

Week 16 = @ MIA

Week 17 = MIN

Week 18 = DET (PHI v. NYG?)

 

So, there’s three of the best GB-DST pairing concepts from our computer models -- but you’re not redraft nuts to just go with GB and grab 1x streamer DSTs on the run for the few weeks you’ll want them.

 

NO Video Q&A tonight (no TNF game)
The Dual DST Theory for 2021…

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Discussing the Green Bay-DST Trinity of Pairings for Redraft/Best Ball 2022…

Date:
July 28, 2022

 

Discussing the Green Bay-DST Trinity of Pairings for Redraft/Best Ball 2022…

 

Disclaimer: I am into the Green Bay Packers defense being the best single defensive unit in the NFL, today. Now, when I make that proclamation in seasons past…somewhere between 2-5 key defenders will tear their ACLs in August/September to ruin it…I have that power sometimes…but looking past that – I want to be with the Packers defense, from everything I see as an evaluator.

The Packers have the best CB trio/group in the NFL, one of the best ever potentially…and the other 8 defensive guys are pretty nice too. Their offense can support their defense via time of possession and playing from ahead. Also, as the season wears on…you like a FF DST playing in (potential) bad (sloppy or just freezing cold) weather – and the Packers will be outdoors/in the upper Midwest or Northeast most all of November-December-January. Week 16 they are at Miami, is the only 2nd-half of the season respite from outdoors/cold+.

I like everything about this defense, as you know/as I’ve been discussing since the start of the calendar year.

BUT… I also know that schedule (ease of) is more important, in picking/running with a DST for FF. And that’s where an issue lies with the Packers-DST…Weeks 1-3 aren’t great schedule-wise for GB. I don’t want to start out the FF season in the hole, so I have been looking at ways to have my cake/Packers-DST and eat/use it too. And three teams/DSTs stand out as great schedule alignments to run a pairing with the Packers-DST to get past the choppy start and then roll on through the few speed bumps later.

Let’s take a look (in random order) at three favorable options to pair with Green Bay DST, and we’re gonna look at them via Green Bay’s schedule then the pairing defense’s nice matchup alternative noted where the GB schedule is weak, and the pairing DST is strong/er…

 

*Note: If you think ‘who cares about DSTs enough to tie up two roster spots on them?’ I would say to you – there’s huge FF-scoring swings in playing the right DST week-to-week and it’s critically important for a week-to-week edge. AND I’d ask you to ponder -- are you getting trapped in the ancient, classically conditioned thought ‘I don’t want to use a roster spot on a DST when I can try for an RB who might break through!” That is true, but 99% of the time it doesn’t work out that you landed the gem RB out of nowhere…or not for long. With two DSTs melding into one super-machine (if you get it right) you would have a huge advantage over opponents more than/right up there with having the best TE or QB, etc.

You might not deploy a two-DST plan upfront, and that’s OK…but don’t write it off because it doesn’t ‘feel’ right.

This is also needed analysis/consideration for those in Best Ball, etc.

The alternative to sitting on a 2nd DST all season just for these matchups is just picking up a DST for that specific ‘soft’ week.

 

*Pairings listed below in random order, not a hierarchy/rank…

 

 

1) Green Bay Packers-DST with the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

I also love what the LAC DST is becoming…on paper. They are my other argument for possible ‘best’ defense in the NFL, personnel-wise in 2022. And it just so happens they are a great pairing on schedule as well…with one exception.

Week 8 when GB is at Buffalo, LAC is on a BYE…that sucks. But the rest of it is so strong that you can play/stream a 3rd DST for that moment…or suck it up with GB in the bad matchup.

There are four projection scenarios where you would use LAC over GB in 2022, on paper/all things being equal…possibly five matchups in 2022, but LAC could get strong enough/be talented enough to be a real option in a few other matchup spots as well.

Green Bay DST is tracking #10-12 ADP overall among DSTs as of this writing, but I bet they rise to the top 5-8 as the mainstream wakes up by September. LAC DST is tracking outside the top 12, so the ‘price’ of doing this is fairly achievable; right now.

 

 

GREEN BAY

Week 1 = @ MIN (LAC vs. LV/Carr)

Week 2 = CHI

Week 3 = @ TB (LAC vs. JAX/Lawrence) 

Week 4 = NE

Week 5 = NYG (at Europe)

Week 6 = NYJ

Week 7 = @ WSH (LAC v. SEA/Lock)

Week 8 = @ BUF (LAC on a BYE)

Week 9 = @ DET

*From Week 10 on, Green Bay will be playing outdoors/in the possible cold and mess all but Week 16. This is an advantage for the GB DST, in theory.

Week 10 = DAL (LAC at SF might wind up better?)

Week 11 = TEN

Week 12 = @ PHI

Week 13 = @ CHI

Week 14 = *BYE* (LAC vs. MIA/Tua)

Week 15 = LAR (LAC v. TEN/Tannehill)

Week 16 = @ MIA

Week 17 = MIN

Week 18 = DET

 

 

2) Green Bay Packers-DST with the CAROLINA PANTHERS

This is perhaps my favorite GB DST pairing. The Panthers-DST has a good CB group as well, if the C.J. Henderson reports are accurate, and the Panthers-DST fits the GB schedule weak spots perfectly. Just when you need GB-DST help, Carolina has a wonderful matchup to go to…not just OK/good enough matchups -- they have terrific matchups to counter the GB DST issues.

You would use Carolina five times in the season, on paper/projected.

Green Bay DST is tracking #10-12 ADP overall among DSTs as of this writing, and I mentioned already that I think they will rise to the top 5-8 as the mainstream wakes up…while the Panthers-DST is not even on people’s radars, not in the top 20 ADP among DSTs right now -- so, you should be able to do this pairing without much cost/resistance.  

 

 

GREEN BAY

Week 1 = @ MIN (CAR vs. CLE/Brissett)

Week 2 = CHI (CAR @ NYG)

Week 3 = @ TB (CAR vs. NO/Winston) 

Week 4 = NE

Week 5 = NYG (Europe)

Week 6 = NYJ

Week 7 = @ WSH

Week 8 = @ BUF (CAR @ ATL/Mariota)

Week 9 = @ DET

*From Week 10 on, Green Bay will be playing outdoors/in the possible cold and mess all but Week 16. This is an advantage for the GB DST, in theory.

Week 10 = DAL

Week 11 = TEN

Week 12 = @ PHI

Week 13 = @ CHI

Week 14 = *BYE* (CAR @ SEA/Lock)

Week 15 = LAR (CAR vs. PIT/Pickett)

Week 16 = @ MIA

Week 17 = MIN

Week 18 = DET

 

 

3) Green Bay Packers-DST with the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Philly-DST pairing is interesting, and it was an idea pointed out to me by an FFM audience member. When I first proposed GB pairing general concepts a few months ago, Philly hadn’t yet signed James Bradberry…so I like the Philly defense even more with Bradberry.

But I don’t love the Week 1 at Detroit because I respect Detroit’s O-Line and QB…but PHI-DST might be better than trying to tackle Minnesota at Minny on a big Week 1 stage. I don’t love Week 3 at WSH either. I don’t hate it, but I don’t fully love it. The weaker Weeks 1 and 3 options from Philly make it not as exciting for me.

However, on the upside -- they hit all the GB weak spots well overall…and Weeks 4 and Week 18 are some possible PHI-DST options as well. We might get 7 usages out of Philly, that’s good…but GB is the lead dance partner in this so I’m not trying to avoid GB in general -- just trying to avoid the really bad matchups and bye for GB-DST.

Green Bay DST is tracking #10-12 ADP overall among DSTs as of this writing, and we think they rise to the top 5-8 as the mainstream wakes up. The Eagles-DST is tracking outside the top 15 ADP among DSTs, so this is another low/no resistance opportunity to pair.

 

 

GREEN BAY

Week 1 = @ MIN (PHI at DET)

Week 2 = CHI

Week 3 = @ TB (PHI at WSH)

Week 4 = NE (PHI v. JAX?)

Week 5 = NYG (Europe)

Week 6 = NYJ

Week 7 = @ WSH

Week 8 = @ BUF (PHI vs. PIT)

Week 9 = @ DET (PHI at HOU?)

*From Week 10 on, Green Bay will be playing outdoors/in the possible cold and mess all but Week 16. This is an advantage for the GB DST, in theory.

Week 10 = DAL

Week 11 = TEN

Week 12 = @ PHI

Week 13 = @ CHI

Week 14 = *BYE* (PHI at NYG)

Week 15 = LAR (PHI at CHI)

Week 16 = @ MIA

Week 17 = MIN

Week 18 = DET (PHI v. NYG?)

 

So, there’s three of the best GB-DST pairing concepts from our computer models -- but you’re not redraft nuts to just go with GB and grab 1x streamer DSTs on the run for the few weeks you’ll want them.

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>