ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

Handicapping Week 10: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)

Date:
November 8, 2018

Handicapping Week 10: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)

If you flipped a coin, you could pick games as well as The Computer has this year. Heated up Week 8 and looked like a turn was happening…then a bad Week 9. Top bets are hitting, Blazing Five can’t get away from .500…and ATS always around .500.

So, enjoy our picks this week…but for entertainment purposes only, apparently. Not all that entertaining for me.

I tweaked things a bit in the system this week, but nothing radical. My real betting plan, today, is to bet GB stronger, then a basket of IND-NYJ-PHI to try to get 2-of-3. KC is our top computer bet, but I hate laying 16.5 type lines.

All Games ATS Through Week 9:

81-47-6 = Savage

71-57-6 = Rabbitt

69-59-6 = Katz

69-59-6 = Skolman

63-65-6 = RC

*12-8-1 YTD when all five Handicappers unanimously agree on an ATS pick.

Week 10 Games:

ARI at KC (-16.5)

The Computer says: KC by 30.7 (Point Spread Differential = 14.2)

The biggest spread we’ve given to one team over another. If KC scores 30+…do you think Arizona can get past 14+ to cover? Not without some luck. I hate playing 14+ point favorites but The Computer says this is going to be ugly. The Rams beat Arizona 34-0 earlier this year…in a similar-ish set up.

Arizona has lost half their games they lost by 18+ points. To the Rams-Redskins-Broncos.

MIA at GB (-9.5)

The Computer says: GB by 18.9 (Point Spread Differential = 9.4)

Miami with Osweiler…a Florida team headed north in November…Rodgers so good at home…Green Bay in a do-or-die. This is one of my favorite bets of the week. Partly because of the underrated GB defense.

JAX at IND (-3.0)

The Computer says: IND by 11.3 (Point Spread Differential = 8.3)

You know the Computer loves the Colts and that’s been paying off nicely for a few weeks now. Leonard Fournette’s return(?) doesn’t scare me.

BUF at NYJ (-6.5)

The Computer says: NYJ by 13.7 (Point Spread Differential = 7.2)

I love that this has dropped because the illustrious Sam Darnold is gone…that only made this a better bet on our book. Now, a Blazing Five pick.

DAL at PHI (-7.0)

The Computer says: PHI by 12.1 (Point Spread Differential = 5.1)

I love this bet. I love Philly here with a week off, and Dallas off a crushing home defeat on MNF…AND they lost Sean Lee. Dallas is about to flush down the drain and Philly about to rise to take the NFC East.

 

CAR at PIT (-3.5)

The Computer says: PIT by 7.8 (Point Spread Differential = 4.3)

Two very similar teams…winning a bunch lately, similar defensive metrics, MVP-type QBs. The Computer gives the edge to the home team.

WAS at TB (-3.0)

The Computer says: TB by 6.3 (Point Spread Differential = 3.3)

The Bucs are killing me. The Computer keeps thinking they’re better than I think. I’ll go here again with The Computer and against decimated O-Line Washington. If TB turns this into a shootout, I don’t think Alex Smith can hang.

ATL (-4.5) at CLE

The Computer says: ATL by 1.3 (Point Spread Differential = 3.2)

The Computer has been standing by the Browns as ‘not bad’ for weeks. I don’t love the Falcons in outdoor games, especially in the colder conditions. Cleveland’s CB situation dictates this…if Denzel Ward and Damarious Randall out, then ATL for the win and maybe cover. Ward back…this might title the Browns.

 

NO (-5.5) at CIN

The Computer says: NO by 8.5 (Point Spread Differential = 3.0)

The Computer thinks the Bengals are a fraud, but worries the Saints coming off such an emotional win could go flat in the colder/outdoor conditions.

DET at CHI (-6.5)

The Computer says: CHI by 8.4 (Point Spread Differential = 1.9)

The Lions were good a few weeks ago. The Bears have been rolling for weeks. Khalil Mack is back. We like the Bears here but wary of the Lions hanging close/backdoor covering.

LAC (-10) at OAK

The Computer says: LAC by 11.6 (Point Spread Differential = 1.6)

This is a lot of points to give up as a road favorite, but I guess you have to go anti-Oakland. How can you possible bet seriously on the Raiders right now? We’ve never seen a team so gutted from within.

SEA at LAR (-9.5)

The Computer says: LAR by 11.0 (Point Spread Differential = 1.5)

Do-or-die game for Seattle, to a degree. Rams must win to keep pace with the Saints…and dispatch Seattle from any thoughts of the NFC West title.

NYG at SF (-3.0)

The Computer says: SF by 2.4 (Point Spread Differential = 0.6)

I so want to bet against Nick Mullens, but The Computer says ‘beware’. I still think NYG is going pop SF right here.

NE (-6.5) at TEN

The Computer says: NE by 6.0 (Point Spread Differential = 0.5)

Tennessee is one of the better ‘bad’ teams out there – they keep winning games they shouldn’t and staying close in every game. At some point, I have to switch from they’re lucky’ to maybe they aren’t that bad. I still do not like what I see from New England…but they keep winning.

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>