Handicapping Week 10 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)...
All games ATS:
71-63-1 (53.0%) = Katz (8-6 last wk)
69-65-1 (51.5%) = Rabbitt (7-7 last wk)
69-65-1 (51.5%) = RC (7-7 last wk)
69-65-1 (50.8%) = Skol (8-6 last wk)
63-71-1 (47.0%) = Savage (8-6 last wk)
7-7 split last week. It seemed to be that kind of week for all…right around .500 for the group or slightly better. It’s hard to do all picks ATS and get to 55%+…or even stay above 50%. That’s what makes this so fun/maddening…the chase. Let the chase continue…
Note – My spread projections/differentials…my system is built to look at the week in a bubble. The key injuries (which are somewhat unknown for some teams yet) factor in. Betting trends in general for what’s working on home/away, off a bye, etc., are factored in. It’s not a system that is trying to say X team is Y points better than Z team in general…it’s my computer model trying to tell me which teams have the best betting characteristics (that have been working prior) going into THIS PARTICULAR WEEK + the injuries + how the team has been playing recently, etc.
FYI: Here are The Computer’s Top 12 NFL teams based on my own ‘Power Rating’ (quality of current roster + various metrics on O-Line, defense, special teams, offensive output, coaching ratings, etc., plus quality of wins-losses).
1) San Francisco
2) New Orleans
3) New England
6) Kansas City
7) LA Rams
9) Pittsburgh (this still catches me by surprise too…but, arguably, the best O-Line in the NFL)
10) Green Bay
MIA at IND (-10.5)
The Computer says: IND by 25.3…Spread Differential 14.8
Beating the Jets is not a cure all…it’s equivalent to what beating Miami used to be – meaningless/expected. Indy suffers no great drop-off if Brian Hoyer has to start here. I wish Hilton-Campbell were healthy, but Pascal-Rogers with the TEs will be fine against the likes of Miami.
*SURVIVOR PICK OPTION #2* In some cases, I have to use Indy here because the other great option is the Saints, but I used them Week 5 over Tampa Bay. I might as well use Indy while I can in a matchup like this, at home. I feel pretty confident here, I just wish Indy was at full strength.
SEA at SF (-6.0)
The Computer says: SF by 19.9…Spread Differential 13.9
Everything favors SF here. The better team at every position except QB. Plus, you get SF on 11 days of prep/rest and it being another home Monday Night Game for them.
ATL at NO (-13.0)
The Computer says: NO by 26.3…Spread Differential 13.3
Besides having the better, healthier team…you’d rather have Sean Payton’s planning off a BYE than Dan Quinn.
*SURVIVOR PICK OPTION #1* Where I didn’t use NO already, I’m going Saints…you have to. Off a BYE, you want Payton planning vs. Quinn planning ON TOP OF how much better the Saints are, and at NO.
ARI at TB (+4.5)
The Computer says: ARI by 6.4…Spread Differential 10.9
Why everyone makes a mockery of the NY Jets or Cleveland Browns as a terrible organization, and they are, and just lets Tampa Bay slide right by not taking the same hits…I don’t understand – terrible roster, awful QB, overrated head coach, terrible GM. Why is Tampa Bay a strong favorite here?
KC at TEN (+4.0)
The Computer says: KC by 11.1…Spread Differential 7.1
I’m betting this early where I can – I believe Mahomes is playing/starting, and I’m still OK if he doesn’t. The Chiefs pass rush is coming on…and the Titans have allowed the most sacks in the league so far. This could be one of those 5-8 sacks in a game events for KC.
NYG at NYJ (+2.5)
The Computer says: NYG by 7.2…Spread Differential 4.7
All the internal metrics favor NYG right now…even though NYJ beat Dallas and NYG got crushed by them.
LAR at PIT (-3.5)
The Computer says: LAR by 8.2…Spread Differential 4.7
My eyes tell me the Steelers are a minor fraud. I also sense the Rams are fixing their issues and they are coming out of a BYE, where Sean McVay should be a big advantage here. If James Conner is back, I love the Rams ever more.
MIN at DAL (-3.0)
The Computer says: MIN by 1.0…Spread Differential 4.0
I was surprised the computer was so positive here on Minnesota. The computer thought it would be a slam dunk if Adam Thielen were playing. Now, it’s just leaning Minnesota coming off a loss and Dallas on a short week.
LAC at OAK (+1.0)
The Computer says: OAK by 2.7…Spread Differential 3.7
Oakland is better on offense and stopping the run…the one issue is the Raiders are getting killed in the air…if not for that, and watching it the last few weeks, I’d bet real money on Oakland here. This is a playoff game for Oakland, and I think they will design a game plan that embarrasses Anthony Lynn and wins the game. The Chargers pass rush is overrated and Derek Carr is great at neutralizing supposed great pass rushes…it’s his best quality.
DET at CHI (-2.5)
The Computer says: CHI by 4.1…Spread Differential 1.6
No conviction here, but Chicago is overdue for a win…even just a lucky one. They’ve lost four in a row, but really had two of those games won.
BAL at CIN (+10.0)
The Computer says: BAL by 9.4…Spread Differential 0.6
I have a funny feeling that Baltimore runs into trouble because we’re making too much of their win over New England, and we get the dreaded rookie/debut QB off a BYE…in this era, the debuts seem to shock all of us every single time. *I might switch this Saturday if the Ravens hurt OLs are OK/playing.
CAR at GB (-5.0)
The Computer says: GB by 4.5…Spread Differential 0.5
The home field with the cold/wind is the advantage for GB, but it’s a lot of points vs. a menacing defense facing a mostly sputtering offense all season.
BUF at CLE (-3.0)
The Computer says: CLE by 2.5…Spread Differential 0.5
I’ll pick against Cleveland, which means they’ll finally win.