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Handicapping Week 12 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)...

Date:
November 21, 2019

Another sub-.500 week, another .500 Blazing Five week, but another winning week in actual bets (2-1). All my analysis and computer models on picking all games is one step forward/one step back the last 4-5 weeks, after a decent start. I give up. I’m going to adjust to have more football eye test involved than just all data trends…I seem to be one week late on every trend of late, so ‘screw it’ when trying to pick all games…I’ll add more intuition/tape impressions into it to try to jump start my ‘all picks’.

I’ll stick by the computer analysis when picking actual games I’m going to bet real money on (56%+ win totals this year on real bets on my Stock Market reports Sunday morning).

Last week, I hated every game for betting opportunity but Arizona +points…and got in early at +11.5, +11, +10.5…and avoided the late game fumble TD that blew up the late +10.0 lines. But, in general…I hated last week, and went 2-1 in real bets…and was terrible in picking all games ATS.

This week, I think it is the best week I’ve seen for picking games in a long time. I’m going to place the largest bet of my entire season on one team in particular and then several other healthy bets on two others and some small snacks on 2-3 others. I think Week 12 is giving me the window to make my entire (real) handicapping season…or blow it to smithereens. We’ll see.

All picks and three survivor options below, and I’m using all 3 in various pools I’m still alive in.

 

 

All games ATS:

85-74-3 (53.5%) = Katz (7-6-1 last wk)

83-76-3 (52.2%) = Rabbitt (9-4-1 last wk)

79-80-3 (49.7%) = RC (5-8-1 last wk)

78-81-3 (49.1%) = Skol (4-9-1 last wk)

78-81-3 (49.1%) = Savage (6-7-1 last wk)

 

 

Top 12 Teams According to The Computer…

 

1) BAL

2) NE

3) SF

4) DAL

5) NO

6) KC

7) MIN

8) LAR

9) PIT

10) GB

11) SEA

12) OAK

 

 

TB at ATL (-4.5)

The Computer says: ATL by 17.2…Spread Differential 12.7

Read my Atlanta v. Carolina Week 11 recap for more details, but I’m going at this game hard with the ATL.

*SURVIVOR OPTION of 3* I have three survivor options noted this week, from teams I can still play. You could go round and round with which one is better based upon which one you could use later. There are merits to using ATL or CLE or PIT…and strategic reasons to wait on any of them for later. I looked at the next few weeks…and one strategy didn’t stand out over another. At this stage, I want to go with something I know is going to win now and not worry about what might be a nice play weeks ahead (because nothing stands out tall on that front).

I think of them all, ATL is maybe least likely to use later (so use now) and CLE you can use at Cincy in a few weeks (but I fear the ‘what if’ that CLE just lost to PIT and is falling apart ahead).

 

PIT at CIN (+6.5)

The Computer says: PIT by 17.0…Spread Differential 10.5

The Steelers bounce back with 10 days off and take out frustrations on helpless Cincinnati.

*SURVIVOR OPTION of 3* You figure the Steelers are going to lay it on Cincy to exercise some demons from last week and go in strong to next week’s CLE rematch.

 

DET at WAS (+3.5)

The Computer says: DET by 13.7…Spread Differential 10.2

I love Detroit here because they are being undersold because the public would believe Jeff Driskel is worse than Dwayne Haskins, but it’s not even close…Driskel is far superior. I love this bet this week as well. Going fairly heavy on DET this week, as a bet, but waiting for Stafford officially ruled out to get the bets line.

 

BAL at LAR (+3.5)

The Computer says: BAL by 13.6…Spread Differential 10.1

I’m going with the best team in football until further notice, I don’t care what the spread is. And this one…it’s another gift – they’ll beat the Rams by 20+ easily.

I’m going to be this heavy because I don’t think we’re giving the Ravens credit for how superior they really are…and how bad the Rams are now.

 

OAK at NYJ (+3.0)

The Computer says: OAK by 12.8…Spread Differential 9.8

Oakland is better than the Jets in every way. I think the Jets 2-game win streak is a head fake of fortuitous schedule and everyone LOVES Darnold…so they think the Jets are secretly good but wins over NYG and WAS/Haskins is not impressive.

 

DAL at NE (-6.5)

The Computer says: DAL by 2.6…Spread Differential 9.1

We think this is a bad matchup for the Patriots. NE could barely beat a wounded Philly team, and now they’ll get the power running, great D-Line of Dallas coming at them. Love Dallas here for an outright win…but Belichick holds me back from getting too excited.

 

IND at HOU (-3.5)

The Computer says: IND by 4.9…Spread Differential 8.4

The Computer has not believed in Houston hype most of the season, but it does buy the quality of the Colts. Indy has won four of their last 5 games with Brissett at QB, including a 7-point win over HOU Week 7. Indy is the better team, all-around, to my eyes but I would not seriously bet this.

 

JAX at TEN (-3.0)

The Computer says: JAX by 4.6…Spread Differential 7.6

I have no idea why The Computer loves Jacksonville so…it’s been getting burned by them for weeks. I put some extra discounts on JAX in the system to account for the issues in our reading of them…and JAX still was the strong play for The Computer. I’m not betting on it, but I’ll pick it.

 

CAR at NO (-9.5)

The Computer says: NO by 2.4…Spread Differential 7.1

The Computer thinks this is where Carolina bounces back from their struggles and puts up a fight to save the season…not enough to win, but to cover.

 

MIA at CLE (-10.5)

The Computer says: CLE by 17.1…Spread Differential 6.5

Miami is falling apart again and the Florida team going north in colder weather is always a strike against them on top of everything else. I think this is a game the Browns try to rack points in to show they are ‘fixed’ and ‘good’.

*SURVIVOR OPTION of 3* Miami is overmatched here, but my slight pause is – will the Browns muck this up, as they are apt/built to do? Miami is scrappy, and how will the Browns react off the debacle last week? It might be with power…it might be the Browns playing empty/drifting/taking lightly.

 

GB at SF (-3.0)

The Computer says: GB by 0.2…Spread Differential 3.2

The 49ers are starting to worry me that they are a different version of the Patriots…good but made a name off embarrassing bad teams early this season…and now struggling with better QBs they’ve faced of late.

 

DEN at BUF (-4.0)

The Computer says: BUF by 6.3…Spread Differential 2.3

Close call flips to Buffalo on the early injury report but this could go back to Denver for us on Saturday.

 

 

SEA at PHI (-1.5)

The Computer says: PHI by 0.3…Spread Differential 1.2

We would have Philly as the pick if not for all their injuries.

 

NYG at CHI (-6.0)

The Computer says: CHI by 5.7…Spread Differential 0.3

It may be wise to just take the points in this epic battle…


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>