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Handicapping Week 13: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)

Date:
November 29, 2018

Handicapping Week 13: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)

Don’t listen to me on all picks…I can’t find .500. Picking a lot of winners but not coverers among the favorites, and I know that’s the game (factoring the spread, duh)…but it’s making me mad. Was much better rolling with the right favorites in 2017, been a small disaster over all picks in 2018.

However, my top bets are soaring (DAL-BAL and some IND led to a sweet recovery of my ARI nightmare the week prior)…that’s why I can’t change my system models too much. I don’t bet all games – I’m looking for real bets to make. The real opportunities. The system is giving me gold at the top and garbage below…so, if you want – take my double-digit spread differentials and then do the opposite everywhere else. I may try that to just to jinx myself. My top 2 games from The Computer are 7-3 the last 5 weeks. Running near 65%+ since Week 2.

I’m going to bet much of my gambling life on IND this week, plus take positions in PIT, NO and maybe smaller positions in DEN and CLE.

All Games ATS Through Week 12:

99-69-8 = Savage

95-73-8 = Rabbitt

90-78-8 = Skolman

87-81-8 = Katz

81-87-8 = RC

*16-9-1 YTD when all five Handicappers unanimously agree on an ATS pick.

Week 13 Games:

IND (-4.0) at JAX

The Computer says: IND by 19.1 (Point Spread Differential = 15.1)

Could be ‘bet of the year’ if Jalen Ramsey is inactive. There’s not one thing going for JAX…everything is against them. The QB change, no Fournette, the entire O-Line decimated. Playoff hopes dashed. Plus, the Colts are really, really good. I love this bet, and if Ramsey is out…I swear, I will rob a bank to get more funds to bet on this.

KC (-15.0) at OAK

The Computer says: KC by 30.0 (Point Spread Differential = 15.0)

The question will be how seriously the Chiefs take this game. In reality, they could win this game by 50+.

NO (-7.0) at DAL

The Computer says: NO by 18.4 (Point Spread Differential = 11.4)

The Computer really likes the Saints here, with Dallas puffed after a big national TV win against Colt McCoy. This has some ‘bet of the year’ opportunity if LT Tyron Smith is out.

LAC at PIT (-3.5)

The Computer says: PIT by 17.4 (Point Spread Differential = 13.9)

The Computer has not liked the Chargers ‘internals’ all year. Now LAC minus their offense goes to the Steelers – and you have to love the Steelers coming off disappointment games.

SF at SEA (-10.0)

The Computer says: SEA by 18.8 (Point Spread Differential = 8.8)

The 49ers are not trying to win football games and Seattle has everything to play for. This could be a massacre and the end of the Nick Mullens era.

DEN (-5.0) at CIN

The Computer says: DEN by 12.4 (Point Spread Differential = 7.4)

Denver has everything to play for and are the better team. Cincy’s playoffs are at stake here, so I expect their best 9whatever that is) + Denver may have a hangover from the Steelers win, but I don’t think Cincy gets the full credit for how ARI-OAK level bad they are.

MIN at NE (-7.5)

The Computer says: MIN by 1.7 (Point Spread Differential = 6.7)

Mild surprise, The Computer says the Vikings are the favorite here…if Xavier Rhodes is OK. If not, it slides back to NE. Either way – you take 7.5 juicy points with the better team.

BAL at ATL (-1.0)

The Computer says: BAL by 4.5 (Point Spread Differential = 5.5)

I don’t like anything about this game as a bettor.

CLE at HOU (-6.0)

The Computer says: HOU by 1.3 (Point Spread Differential = 4.7)

The Computer sees a good chance the Browns pull the upset here, so take the points. The Browns would be like 6-4-1/7-5 coming into this game without Hue and starting Baker Week 1…people don’t see CLE as that good yet. They might after this week.

NYJ at TEN (-7.5)

The Computer says: TEN by 3.9 (Point Spread Differential = 3.7)

A lot favors TEN here, but Tennessee giving up 7.5 is a lot.

CAR (-3.5) at TB

The Computer says: CAR by 6.9 (Point Spread Differential = 3.4)

Carolina might destroy TB here. A must-win against a winnable foe.

CHI (-4.5) at NYG

The Computer says: CHI by 7.6 (Point Spread Differential = 3.1)

This is assuming Chase Daniel. I wouldn’t bet it. The Bears have been flirting with losses and heading to NYG with LAR looming after that. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose here. The Bears D may win this outright.

LAR (-10.0) at DET

The Computer says: LAR by 12.1 (Point Spread Differential = 2.1)

This has all the makings of a 20+ point blowout.

BUF at MIA (-4.5)

The Computer says: MIA by 5.7 (Point Spread Differential = 1.2)

Must win for both teams. Road teams going to Miami always underperform.

WSH at PHI (-6.5)

The Computer says: PHI by 7.7 (Point Spread Differential = 1.2)

The tale of two injury-ravaged teams. I like Philly, but it’s a lot of points.

ARI at GB (-14.0)

The Computer says: GB by 14.3 (Point Spread Differential = 0.3)

You’d think GB is ripe to blowout the Cards here, but the Packers O-Line is really bad and may have lost it’s best OL for this game. A lot of sacks coming…and maybe defensive scores can keep ARI within range. Green Bay loses this, and McCarthy may get fired by midnight Sunday.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>