All games ATS:
91-82-3 (52.6%) = Katz (6-8 last wk)
89-84-3 (51.4%) = Rabbitt (6-8 last wk)
86-87-3 (49.7%) = RC (7-7 last wk)
86-87-3 (49.7%) = Skol (8-6 last wk)
83-90-3 (48.0%) = Savage (5-9 last wk)
I fired my computer models for ineffectiveness. Too many around .500 weeks picking all games ATS and no consistency for over a season now. Blazing Five is around .500 again after a solid start to the season. Actual bets are 55%+ but after butchering last week with big bets on ATL and DET…I’m firing it.
Then, I’m rehiring the computer to seek new models. Try all new ways. All the matchup analysis doesn’t mean $#!% picking games ATS when flipping a coin would have worked as well. Hopefully, we’re onto new opportunity to find the Holy Grail.
I am using a ‘five star’ system. Looking at five characteristics of each game from a betting standpoint and seeing how many of the characteristics my pick has over the opponent. Having a 5-0/five star game, in theory, should be money in the bank. Anything 4-5 stars is strong. 3+ stars are ones I look at to possibly really bet.
Here’s the real-world test #1 of the ‘star’ system, not just going back and seeing it has some promise after-the-fact.
SF at BAL (-6.0)
The 49ers look great because they crushed the Packers, but GB has been overrated all season. Before the Packer beatdown, SF was almost losing to Arizona twice and beaten by Seattle. Meanwhile. Baltimore is crushing everything in its path. I go Ravens every week to try keep cashing in like I have for a few weeks now.
BUF at DAL (-6.5)
I love this pick. I discussed this on the Bet The Close podcast…pointing out how soft Dallas is and how they crumble when they play better/more physical teams. Bills can win this outright.
GB at NYG (-6.0)
I think I love the Packers coming off a week of adversity/off a humiliation…and the Giants are arguably the worst team in the NFL. I take the Packers and lay the points. Potential rain here makes it a slight bit touchy to lay heavy points.
*SURVIVOR PICK* Of the teams I have left to use where I went CLE last week, the Packers are the most obvious play.
MIN at SEA (-3.0)
Two teams that you never know what you’re going to get. I’ll take Seattle for the hopes that we see more Rashaad Penny, and that Russell Wilson is better than Kirk Cousins in big games, and that Adam Thielen may miss this game as well. The Vikings are not good on the road and out of a dome.
LAR at ARI (+3.0)
The Rams are so bad, that I’ll take about any home team getting points against them. And Arizona has been pretty good covering most of this season.
OAK at KC (-10.0)
The smart bet for a season+ is to take anything opposing KC because the public is dazzled by Mahomes. The lines are always too high, or the Chiefs lose a lot lately. The weather could make the Chiefs passing attack a bit sluggish if the high winds projection keeps up.
TB at JAX (+1.0)
This game smells like a reversal of fortune game…the Bucs were great last week, and the Jags look beyond dead. And then the following week, they each inexplicably do a 180 on their play…as it happens in the NFL. The Jags are due to play a plausible game after being so bad for the last three weeks.
NE at HOU (+3.5)
I’d love the Patriots here, but so many of their players have been dealing with the flu and the Patriots aren’t that good. Scuffled with Dallas and Philly the last two weeks. Houston needs this win. I’ll take ‘home’ + ‘points’.
WAS at CAR (-10.0)
I have no confidence in Washington, but I have no confidence in Carolina either. The Redskins are going to try to run the ball every play here, and they might be able to keep it close. Just taking the +10 because it’s a lot of points in a ‘slow down’ game that Washington may run all over defeated Carolina.
NYJ at CIN (+3.0)
I just don’t think the Jets are as good as the run they’ve been on, and the Bengals have been scrappy the last few weeks. Cincy moving to Dalton might be the extra boost they needed to steal their first win.
CLE at PIT (+2.5)
I just don’t think the Steelers can hang with the Browns, BUT the Steelers could be jacked emotionally at home here in the revenge game of the year and the Browns are hard to rely on. My gut says Cleveland, which means take the home emotional Steelers.
PHI at MIA (+10.0)
The Eagles are due for a breakout, but 10 points is a lot…and then teams tend to not play well when travelling to the party town of Miami. I’ll just take the points with little confidence in either team.
NO at ATL (+6.5)
Since their simultaneous Week 9 BYE, the Saints are 2-1, lucky to not be 1-2…and got smoked by the Falcons. Atlanta is also 2-1 but looked terrible last week. I would want to know if Marshon Lattimore is playing this week to have more confidence in the Saints. With NO having two key OLs out, and possibly Lattimore…I just take the ATL with points just because.
LAC at DEN (+3.0)
I think Denver might have had their soul ripped out the last two weeks…up huge on the Vikings and then blowing it in the 2nd-half and then playing a street fight game with Buffalo, and the Bills showing them who is boss. I think Denver is rolling over and the Chargers are desperate to play well after two humiliations on national TV before last week’s bye. But this being at Denver and getting points with two bad teams…I’ll take the points.
TEN at IND (-2.5)
With everyone ‘noticing’ the Titans…this is where they faceplant on everyone. Derrick Henry is iffy this week, potentially, too…with a hamstring.
CHI at DET (+5.5)
Just taking the points because at DET on Thanksgiving with two bad teams playing. David Blough is not terrible, but this is a lot ask. I would never bet this for real unless the line jumped to more than 7 with Detroit.