Handicapping Week 14 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)...
All Games ATS YTD:
99-90-3 (52.4%) = Katz (8-8)
97-92-3 (51.3%) = Skol (11-5)
97-92-3 (51.3%) = Rabbitt (8-8)
94-95-3 (49.7%) = RC (8-8)
90-99-3 (47.6%) = Savage (7-9)
Another 8-8 week last week, this time debuting the ‘star’ system. 3-1 on the top four ranked plays, but lost the top one, which I really bet and lost (Ravens win but don’t cover). It’s been that type of year. The grind, the chase continues. Oen good week and I can be near the top of the leader-board...I'm in the hunt but time running out.
I really do not like any games that much this week…nowhere near like I loved BAL and BUF last week. I am kinda smitten with The Computer’s top choice this week. It may be the only game I really play seriously.
SEA at LAR (PK)
My bet of the week. Out of nowhere. I’m suddenly smitten with the notion that we’ve all/I have fallen asleep on the Rams. Punishing them for losing to the Ravens hard, when…why is that a bad thing? Crushing the Cardinals last week was a ‘what’s wrong with Arizona?’ take. The Rams are 4-2 the last six weeks, and their defense has held five of their last 6 opponents to 17 or fewer points. The Rams may be getting it together but we’re missing it because of that Ravens blowout. Seattle is not THAT good of a team and the Rams have a lot of the right pieces to be a good team…they may be hitting a stride now.
If the Vikings happen to lose ahead of the Rams game, or if the 49ers lose…it would mean a Rams win pulls Seattle, SF, and the Vikings back to the surging Rams who would be two games out of the NFC West with an SF game to go…and one game back of the Vikings. This is the Rams season here.
DET at MIN (-13.0)
The Vikings win most of their home games by double-digits, and now coming off a loss and facing the David Blough experience…I usually just take the points in all games now because I don’t know what is going on as a bettor anymore, but I’ll take the one real home advantage left in the NFL here.
*SURVIVOR POOL PICK* I’m alive in so many Survivor Pools it’s crazy. And I still have Minnesota I can use! Chaa-Chingg!!!
TEN at OAK (+2.5)
The Titans are playing way better but also had a lot of luck along the way the past 5 weeks. The Raiders started rolling a few weeks ago and then fell down the last two weeks. AT Oakland, this could be where the two paths change course, and the Raiders steal a win. Depends if the Titans are down a couple key defenders for this game. If Adoree Jackson is out, then this is 3-4 stars and bettable. Adoree in takes it down to 1-2 stars and not bettable for me.
IND at TB (-3.0)
Everything feels right about the Bucs here and Indy is fading, which means it’s time to take Indy and points in a must-win. I’m playing it like this…1-star for Indy if Vinatieri is active/starting and 3-stars, Blazing Five if Vinatieri is inactive. I think Vin will be inactive, so 3-stars for now…but dropping away if he is active game time. Vinatieri has made an 8-4 team 6-6. PK Chase McLaughlin is there and ready to go now…
CAR at ATL (-3.0)
New head coach with a new plan Carolina won’t have a full book on…against a bad team and I’m getting points! I’ll take it!!
KC at NE (-3.0)
I’m not impressed with the Patriots in about any phase of the game right now. They have little offense. A battered O-Line (just lost their center too). Terrible kicker. KC has the offense, an emerging defense (at least not-terrible), and have played NE twice in last year…the mystique of facing the Pats is muted, plus the Pats floundering of late ruins the mystique aspect even more. Chiefs win outright.
LAC at JAX (+3.0)
Two terrible, dead teams playing in a game…I’ll take the home one getting points. The Jags are much better with Minshew.
PIT at ARI (+2.5)
Everything in the world says bet against Arizona, which means it’s the perfect time for them to confound all of us once again. I’m a sucker for the points these days. Gimme ‘em with Arizona. Kyler bounces back.
DAL at CHI (+3.0)
I’d like to have more confidence in the Bears here – I’ve been playing an anti-Dallas ride of them faltering to physically tougher teams, and the Bears fall in that category. At Chicago, cold, on TNF…I like the Bears. EXCEPT the Cowboys are due for a back against the wall game.
DEN at HOU (-9.5)
Houston riding high/hot off the New England win and Denver good/dull enough to keep it close. I’ll just take the points here. I’m not ready coronate Houston for beating NE. I’d love this to get to +10, and I think it will and beyond by Friday night.
MIA at NYJ (-5.5)
The Jets are a +5.5 favorite over a team? Really? I know it’s Miami heading north and blah-blah-blah. I got another analytic to counter that – IT’S THE JETS!!!! THEY JYUST GOT CREAMED BY A PREVIOUSLY 0-11 TEAM!!!
CIN at CLE (-8.0)
Which side are you on?
1) Cleveland rallies off a soul-crushing loss and plays a sharp game dispatching an inferior opponent?
2) Cleveland swirls down the toilet after a soul-crushing loss and plays yet ANOTHER penalty and turnover and drop filled game and doesn’t cover?
You can see which one I chose.
SF at NO (-2.5)
I’ve not loved the way the 49ers defense has played against good offenses. They are crushing bad teams/offenses, but semi-struggling against Seattle, Baltimore, Arizona types. The Saints win this and pierce the 49ers hype balloon.
WAS at GB (-13.0)
The Redskins have won two in a row. The Packers do not impress me. Washington can try and just run this/run the clock and keep close. Washington’s defense is playing with a little more effort. I’m trying to come up with reasons to just take the points, but I would never bet WITH Dwayne Haskins. He’s due for ‘one of those games’ again. I’ll pick Washington not bet them.
NYG at PHI (-9.5)
The Eagles HAVE to win this game. It would have been better to be played NOT on Monday Night at Philly because I think all the extra pressure is now on the Eagles. I want to take the points, but this has to be a game where the Eagles go run it up to exercise some demons from last week…especially if Dallas loses on TNF.
BAL at BUF (+5.5)
I said I would never bet against the 2019 Ravens after they thumped the Pats, but I’ll pick against them. I bet this line goes closer to +7.0. The Bills are one of the only teams that will not fear the Ravens, and Sean McDermott has a chance here to show the world he is the top defensive genius in the game (or not) and set a blueprint for how you stop Lamar. I’d never bet it, but I want to see what the Bills do here.