Handicapping Week 15: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)
Another 8-8 week, a solid 3-2 on the Blazing Five…but we’re still just one step forward, one step back every week now. Stuck in the mud. I’m sick of it so I employed a new twist to my models this week to try to juice things a bit but all it did was put us in line with the Vegas lines more than any week this season.
My top bets have been getting back to winners the past two weeks, but not off the charts. Just limping back to positives for the year in real wagering. Going to try to make some things happen with my top bet below -- Minnesota…and then maybe smaller bets on Indy and, perhaps, KC for fun.
Good luck this week.
All Games ATS Through Week 14:
112-88-8 = Savage
111-89-8 = Rabbitt
109-91-8 = Skolman
105-95-8 = Katz
95-105-8 = RC
*19-13-1 YTD when all five Handicappers unanimously agree on an ATS pick.
MIA at MIN (-7.0)
The Computer says: MIN by 20.4 (Point Spread Differential = 13.4)
I could not love this wager any more. You have all the elements – Miami’s highly visible win over NE, the Vikings nightmare on MNF. Miami’s was pure luck (and that NE blows this year compared to normal NE) and Minnesota had a bad game at a tough place to play. All the emotions of last week drove the line from -9.5 to -7.0…I’m all over a reversal of everything we saw last week.
Minnesota is clearly the better team here, in part due to the fact that Xavien Howard is hurt…it would be like if Xavier Rhodes was out for the Vikings, only worse because Miami’s defense is weaker otherwise. Miami will be hard-pressed to score 14 points in this game and the Vikes, under a new O-C (which I also love the first week for betting) will score 21 at least.
I like this bet with X. Howard back…but if he’s out, I’m playing this strong. Already taking positions at -7.0 projecting Howard out.
DAL at IND (-3.0)
The Computer says: IND by 15.3 (Point Spread Differential = 12.3)
You know how much my computer models have loved the Colts since Week 3. We’ve bet them a lot and won a lot (and then lost it all with them -4.0 vs. JAX). They upset HOU last week and now they face another win-streak team…a must-win for the Colts in their wild card chase, and possible division title hopes.
Dallas has been good but lucky in parts of their win streak, including last week’s four-leaf clover game vs. Philly. The Cowboys are the most sacked team in the league and Indy one of the lowest getting sacked – the protection and offensive efficiencies favor Indy, a lot…and them at home. I like the Colts here to continue to show they are a top NFL team. Plus, the Cowboys are so due to lay an egg…
PHI at LAR (-9.0)
The Computer says: LAR by 18.5 (Point Spread Differential = 9.6)
I love Nick Foles and all, but this is not the way or right time for any of this. Unplanned starter, no real work with the 1st-team guys in probably weeks/months. The Eagles in a nose dive and the Rams ready kill somebody…an Eagles team with a depleted secondary. A good chance the Rams run it up here.
NE (-3.0) at PIT
The Computer says: PIT by 3.7 (Point Spread Differential = 6.7)
The Computer has been wrong on the Steelers the last three weeks and now wants a 4th chance at it. As much as we all hate the Steelers for their stupid losing ways…the Patriots just lost to Miami in a stupid way. It was a few weeks ago NE got embarrassed by Tennessee.
The Computer feels these are two overrated teams, but you get one at home and the one every thinks cant bounce back (PIT), while assuming the other one (NE) will. This is a play on the Steelers having the home field edge in a war (the Pats are 3-4 on the road this year) and playing against public sentiment.
I would never bet this for realsies, but The Computer says things point to the Steelers.
LAC at KC (-3.5)
The Computer says: KC by 18.3 (Point Spread Differential = 5.6)
We’ve thought the Chargers were overrated all year. Several lucky moments have taken LAC to 10-3 when they could easily be 7-6. They go to cold KC to play a team not overrated. Take the home TNF juggernaut team…KC.
SEA (-6.0) at SF
The Computer says: SEA by 1.3 (Point Spread Differential = 4.7)
We got the cover and outright win with SF last week, we go for it again here. SF is 3-3 at home and playing inspired football. Seattle comes off a big MNF win…a short week, going on the road, KC the following week means Seattle could look right past SF here.
NO (-6.5) at CAR
The Computer says: NO by 1.8 (Point Spread Differential = 4.7)
MNF at Carolina…a little chilly temps for the indoor Saints. Carolina has looked so bad and their playoff life is about over but come kickoff they could be in a position where if they win, they can change the season and be in the thick of the wild card. A home field/MNF boost to take the points.
HOU (-6.0) at NYJ
The Computer says: HOU by 2.3 (Point Spread Differential = 3.7)
Cold, rainy, New York game…I’ll take 6.0 points and hope for a slog and/or some slick ball turnovers.
GB at CHI (-5.5)
The Computer says: CHI by 8.5 (Point Spread Differential = 3.0)
I personally love this game. I think the Bears are going to destroy the Packers here to take the division title, but never take Aaron Rodgers lightly.
ARI at ATL (-8.5)
The Computer says: ATL by 6.2 (Point Spread Differential = 2.3)
Should ATL be 8.5 favorites to any team? Even awful ARI? I don’t think so.
CLE at DEN (-3.0)
The Computer says: DEN by 0.8 (Point Spread Differential = 2.2)
I think this is a high upset alert, the Browns winning outright. The Browns march to a division title starts here…and I don’t like Denver with Chris Harris out and Case Keenum in.
TEN at NYG (-2.5)
The Computer says: NYG by 1.0 (Point Spread Differential = 1.5)
The Giants are a favorite? Just take the points is the safe bet in that scenario.
WAS at JAX (-7.0)
The Computer says: JAX by 5.9 (Point Spread Differential = 1.1)
Can the Jags beat any team by 7.0? Josh Johnson could be a bit unorthodox and confuses the Jags by running for 100+ yards and not fighting their great pass defense.
TB at BAL (-8.0)
The Computer says: BAL by 9.0 (Point Spread Differential = 1.0)
This is a prime game for the Bucs to start mailing in their lost season and they type of defense that makes Jameis look stupid.
OAK at CIN (-3.0)
The Computer says: CIN by 3.9 (Point Spread Differential = 0.9)
I want no part of betting this. A slight home field edge tips it to Cincy.
DET at BUF (-2.5)
The Computer says: BUF by 2.8 (Point Spread Differential = 0.3)
I want no part of betting this, but I do feel like the Bills are going to take it to the Lions outdoors here. This is a great game for the Lions to pull their disappearing act on Matt Patricia, as they tend to do off and on this season.