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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Handicapping Week 15 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)...

Date:
December 12, 2019

A .500 week (7-7-2) on all picks ATS, and 2-2-1 on the Blazing Five…man, I thought I had that MIN -13.0 cover over DET in the bag, but the Lions scored late to push it.

Another solid week for the ‘star system’ in real betting terms. I’m betting my 4+ star picks from the computer characteristics/analysis of the game -- and that has led me to three games the past two weeks…

BUF (+6.5) over DAL…which ended up an outright win

BAL (-5.5) over SF…a BAL win, but missed the cover in the rain. A loss.

LAR (PK) over SEA…last week, an outright win.

We’ve got two 4+ star events this week. Let’s keep the 4+ star picks rolling!

 

All Games ATS YTD:

106-97-5 (51.3%) = Skol (9-5-2)

105-98-5 (52.4%) = Katz (6-8-2)

103-100-5 (51.3%) = Rabbitt (6-8-2)

101-102-5 (49.8%) = RC (7-7-2)

99-104-5 (47.6%) = Savage (9-5-2)

 

==============================

 

All Picks ATS for Week 15….

 

BUF at PIT (-2.0)

Stars: ****1/2

I think this is the game where the Buffalo Bills once again show they are not just good…they are closer to ‘great’ than ‘good’. And the Steelers, God love them…they are barely good. I think this line could go to +2.5 or even +3.0 for Buffalo when Conner-JuJu are confirmed and then I am going all-in on my Stock Market bet with them.

 

LAR at DAL (+1.0)

Stars: ****

Ride the Rams…they are rising into a peak as Dallas is collapsing. I am betting this big this week along with Buffalo.

 

SEA at CAR (+6.0)

Stars: ***

I want to take the points here just because. However, the Panthers have gone beyond ‘quitting’ and with Norv Turner pulling strings things won’t get better. Seattle needs this game bad, and I don’t think they’ll mess around. Seattle has had a very tough schedule in 2019…this is their easy game in the past few months.

 

ATL at SF (-11.0)

Stars: ***

Atlanta is 3-2 since their Week 9 BYE. They are getting some players back on offense, but a killer loss on defense with Trufant out. San Fran is finding their offensive identity and they will score 30+ here, and I don’t think Atlanta can keep up. I hate laying -11.0 but I will. This is the first ‘easy’ game in weeks for SF.

 

PHI at WAS (+4.5)

Stars: ***

The Redskins will hold the Eagles to 20 or fewer points, in part because the Eagles are so bad on offense right now…but the Redskins defense is getting stronger since Bill Callahan took over. I’ll take the home team that’s defense is playing better…and that the Washington team is playing better than Philly has been for weeks.

 

CLE at ARI (+2.5)

Stars: ***

The two worst executing teams in the NFL. The Browns have won 6 games despite all their stupidity and Arizona just 3. This win gets CLE to .500, and I think that means something to them…and has a flicker of playoff hope with a win. I always get suckered by ARI as a home dog…so, I’ll do the opposite here – which means Arizona finally blows out an opponent.

 

CHI at GB (-4.5)

Stars: ***

I don’t think there is a big difference between these two teams and considering the weather will be quite cold and limiting…I’ll just take the points + the running QB. The Packers are really not playing good football right now...they've been bailed out by their schedule.

 

JAX at OAK (-6.5)

Stars: **

Both teams suck, so I’ll take the one getting +6.5.

 

NYJ at BAL (-16.0)

Stars: *

I know BAL is going to win, and probably win big…but that’s a lot of points. You have to assume BAL blows out teams more than they ‘play flat’. So, I’ll take BAL.

 

MIN at LAC (+2.5)

Stars: *

Minnesota needs this bad and I cannot trust LAC.

 

MIA at NYG (-3.5)

Stars: *

When in doubt, take the points.

 

DEN at KC (-9.5)

Stars: *

Denver is a tough out, as they keep proving. They coulda been a wild card team with a little luck earlier this season. Given cold weather and Mahomes dealing with issues, I’ll just take the points.

*SURVIVOR* I still haven’t played/used KC yet…Mahomes went out and I was saving KC, and…well…it’s time to use them. I don’t love this play…but for what I have to choose from, I love it. I’m still alive in many survivor pols…my best SP year ever. Gotta bring it home!

 

IND at NO (-9.0)

Stars: *

Saints must win for seeding, to get a BYE. Coming off the heartbreaker they attack dying Indy and win by two scores to cover.

 

HOU at TEN (-3.0)

Stars: *

I keep betting against TEN, in part thinking this hot run will slow down…but it hasn’t. Houston is built a little better to tangle with Tennessee, and in a close matchup I’ll just take the points for a pick.  

 

TB at DET (+3.5)

Stars: *

It seems like the Bucs are playing too well to bet against facing a limited opponent, but I get +3.5 against a turnover guy with a bad hand (Winston) or it’s Ryan Griffin v. David Blough…and anything can happen in that epic matchup. I’ll just the take the points when confused.  

 

NE at CIN (+9.5)

Stars: *

The Patriots’ offensive woes are real…giving +9.5 is steep, so I’ll take the points with a Cincy team that still plays with some effort. This would be their Super Bowl. 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>