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Handicapping Week 16: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)

Date:
December 20, 2018

Handicapping Week 16: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)

Hey, finally a great picking week – 12-4 in the ATS contest here. 4-1 on the Blazing Five, and hit my two real bets (MIN heavy, IND light)…paydays all around.

We’re getting back in the game the last two weeks after getting stung by ARI v. OAK, IND v. JAX all-in bets the past few weeks…our MIN v. MIA all-in this week got us looking better for the season. One more good week and Cincy getting one more win to pay off my ‘over’ 6.5 win total bet…and this will be a decent little wagering season overall…just weak in this ‘all picks’ ATS selecting.

What about this week for more salvation? Nope. To me, looking at my data…this is the weakest board I’ve seen in 2018, and probably the weakest (for me) in years. I have a lot of my lines close to the Vegas lines and the plays The Computer likes…feel wrong. I’m going to ‘pass’ on this entire week, sadly, for real wagering. I’ll sit on my modest gains for now.

Last week, a much better week with a change in my program to try to jump start things…and it worked. I’m not pressing my luck here this week based on what I see, but I will ride with The Computer for this ‘all picks’ segment to take my emotion out of it – The Computer likes some very unusual games/plays this week (which means it’s probably right…my emotion is always more ‘wrong’).  

All Games ATS Through Week 15:

119-97-8 = Rabbitt

118-98-8 = Skolman

115-101-8 = Savage

114-102-8 = Katz

107-109-8 = RC

*20-14-1 YTD when all five Handicappers unanimously agree on an ATS pick.

TB at DAL (-7.0)

The Computer says: TB by 3.7 (Point Spread Differential = 10.7)

Strangest thing The Computer sees this week – an upset of Dallas…at Dallas, by Tampa Bay? The Computer has secretly liked TB all year as a ‘good’ bad team. And, in reality, the Bucs should’ve been a playoff team. The Computer questions Dallas’s O-Line and ability to be 7 points better than any team.

Dallas is 6-1 at home but won by more than 7 points there just twice this season. In all 14 games this season, Dallas has won by more 7 points only twice…8 over the Redskins and their 40-7 JAX beat-down. Maybe it’s not strange to see a TB cover?

MIN (-5.5) at DET

The Computer says: DET by 2.5 (Point Spread Differential = 8.0)

The Computer has been pro-Detroit a lot this year, and thinks they win this game outright. Home dogs are really doing well this season and especially of late. The Vikings are nothing so special either.

CIN at CLE (-7.0)

The Computer says: CLE by 14.8 (Point Spread Differential = 7.8)

Love the Browns here because Baker Mayfield has made the Cincy games personal, and the Browns are so much better under new management…I think Baker will thump Cincy if he’s allowed to (again).

HOU at PHI (-2.5)

The Computer says: PHI by 8.8 (Point Spread Differential = 6.3)

This is the game that, to me, has the most intriguing internals pointing to a clear win by a favorite this week – Nick Foles delivering a beat down to the overrated Texans. This will definitely be a Blazing Five pick.

BUF at NE (-12.5)

The Computer says: NE by 18.7 (Point Spread Differential = 6.2)

The Computer hasn’t liked the Pats ‘internals’ all season but likes them here in this spot. Possibly facing a rookie QB and UDFA RB in a must-win for NE at NE.

NYG at IND (-9.5)

The Computer says: IND by 13.4 (Point Spread Differential = 3.9)

The Computer has loved Indy all year, and before anyone else did…and made a lot of money off them, but lost a bunch in their one stumble (v. JAX 6-0). Got them right the last two weeks…make it three in a row here, but not as strong a play as it has been because people have woken up to Indy, and the Vegas lines are reflecting it.

WSH at TEN (-10.0)

The Computer says: TEN by 13.3 (Point Spread Differential = 3.3)

The only question is…can Tennessee score enough to cover for sure?

BAL at LAC (-4.5)

The Computer says: LAC by 1.2 (Point Spread Differential = 3.3)

The Computer shows some signs of a Ravens outright upset, but a lot of betting factors point to the Chargers as a safer pick.

LAR (-14.0) at ARI

The Computer says: LAR by 11.0 (Point Spread Differential = 3.0)

Betting the Rams to crush anyone has been foolhardy most of this season. The Rams always seem to let team hang around. This feels like a big Rams win, so I wouldn’t bet it.

ATL (-3.5) at CAR

The Computer says: CAR by 5.8 (Point Spread Differential = 2.3)

Complete unknown what Taylor Heinicke will do/what effect he’ll have when two ‘out of it’ teams meet. No betting allowed here.

GB (-3.0) at NYJ

The Computer says: GB by 0.9 (Point Spread Differential = 2.1)

Green Bay not playing well and hit with injury, and ‘home dogs’…

DEN (-2.5) at OAK

The Computer says: DEN by 3.3 (Point Spread Differential = 0.8)

I would like Oakland here but two things: (1) Missing two starting guards and (2) wanting to lose for draft pick levels could cause a curve ball here

CHI (-4.0) at SF

The Computer says: CHI by 5.2 (Point Spread Differential = 1.2)

SF much better at home and CHI may be ripe for a letdown.

KC (-2.5) at SEA

The Computer says: KC by 3.1 (Point Spread Differential = 0.6)

Going with the better team but hate going against a home team on SNF.

JAC at MIA (-4.0)

The Computer says: MIA by 4.4 (Point Spread Differential = 0.4)

I want nothing to do with this game, but Miami is so much better at home you have to go there.

PIT at NO (-6.0)

The Computer says: NO by 6.0 (Point Spread Differential = 0.0)

You think the Saints are obvious here but their offense has been stuck in the mud lately and the Steelers may get lucky and avoid their James Conner trap and go with the real talent – Jaylen Samuels.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>