Handicapping Week 16 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)...
All Games ATS YTD:
113-106-5 (51.6%) = Rabbitt (9-6)
112-107-5 (51.1%) = Skol (6-10)
110-109-5 (50.2%) = Katz (5-11)
107-112-5 (48.6%) = Savage (8-8)
106-113-5 (48.4%) = RC (5-11)
A bad week for most all-game pickers, and I was chief among them…worst among them. If you would like to know what teams are getting hot/cold a week ago or a week ahead from the current week…I’m your guy. What team works for a pick in the current week…go the opposite of whatever I say.
I look back at this week and see the Falcons beat SF, and how well they’ve played the last 6 weeks…and my biggest bet of the year was on my picking up on the emerging Falcons ahead of the curve (per se) several weeks ago – just in time for the one game they took a major dump vs. Tampa Bay in their hot stretch. Of course, I bet against them beating SF this week because of said dump prior weeks…and then they smack down the 49ers.
Huge real bet on Seattle this past week…they lead by 20, all is well…then they give it all back and miss the 6.5 cover or push the 6.0 bet I made. That’s my handicapping season in a nutshell – nice start, dead to the finish, always on the wrong side of the last second defensive TDs happening the last few weeks to change covers (Like WAS-PHI this past week).
One radical week can save my season, and I never give up until it’s over…so, here we go with a desperation Week 16 list of plays (please, feel free to do the opposite of them):
All Picks ATS for Week 16….
DET at DEN (-7.0)
I like the Broncos a lot here. The Lions are terrible, and the Broncos should be in the wild card hunt with a little luck. Drew Lock is playing well and this is at Denver, so I’ll roll the Broncos by double-digits.
*SURVIVOR* Despite a sad betting 2nd-half of the year for me, I am alive and kicking in several Survivor Pools and booked a few wins already too. I’m out of all obvious options, so I’m going with my most confident win on the board in a week I don’t love anything. Denver wins outright and Drew Lock, of all people, locks down some pools for me with a win this week. I’d like to get to a 17-win perfect season, never have before in survivor but I’m two wins away.
GB at MIN (-5.5)
I kinda love the Packers getting points here. A must-win game against two flawed teams…I’ll take the Aaron Rodgers side, especially with +5.5. Minnesota is tough at home but they shoulda lost to Denver at home a few weeks ago, and then sleep walked past Detroit at home two weeks ago. The experience and ability of Rodgers vs. a dying secondary of MIN…I’ll take the points.
ARI at SEA (-9.5)
I just cannot trust the Cardinals, and I like Seattle here a bunch…depending upon how severe the injury report is. This might be more of a one-star for me after Friday night’s reports.
BAL at CLE (+10.0)
The Ravens will win by 20+.
LAR at SF (-6.5)
The 49ers are lucky to not be on a three-game losing skid (the Saints miracle win saved them). So many injuries for the 49ers and the Rams still have playoff hopes. I’ll take the 6.5 for a closer game.
HOU at TB (+3.0)
The Bucs are hot right now, their defense is picking up. The Texans are still an inconsistent team. With Houston coming off a draining victory they might be ripe for the picking. When they beat NE a few weeks ago, they followed that up by getting slaughtered by the Broncos. I’ll take the +3.0.
BUF at NE (-6.5)
My model leans Patriots, but I just believe the Bills are top-to-bottom better than the Patriots, and I’ll take the +6.5 to watch and find out. The Bills have lost by more than six points just twice this year, one of them by seven to the Ravens recently. I’ll be pulling for my new favorite NFL team, so I’m not picking against them.
CAR at IND (-7.0)
I’ll take the rookie QB debut factor plus the points.
CIN at MIA (PK)
Always take Miami at home in December.
NO at TEN (+3.0)
I don’t like the Saints in outdoor games, so I’ll take the home dog with a field goal assist.
NYG at WAS (-2.5)
The Redskins should’ve won last week, and that would’ve made this line 3+ possibly. I like the way Washington is playing under Bill Callahan. If Quinton Dunbar is active, then I like this more.
PIT at NYJ (+3.0)
Must win game for Pitt. I'll go Steelers but I’d be nervous about the Steelers getting picked off here.
KC at CHI (+6.0)
Going with Chicago because the Chiefs are due for a letdown and going to Chicago on a Sunday night might be that time they don’t cover. Wouldn’t really bet on it.
OAK at LAC (-7.0)
I don’t like that this line jumped from 5.5 to 7.0, but I’ll roll with LAC. The Raiders are dying, and all banged up, and this is Rivers’ Charger farewell, I have a feeling.
JAX at ATL (-7.0)
I like the Falcons to win, but the 7.0 is a lot to ask of a good but erratic Atlanta team. Every time I think you have to roll with them they flop. Go against them and they rise. I like the Falcons here…so, I’ll do the opposite and pick JAX.
DAL at PHI (+2.5)
Making picks now, I have to go Philly to have points and to protect against Dak being out.