Handicapping Week 2 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)...
Alright, not a terrible start to the betting season…per se. We went 8-8 on all picks…meh. 3-2 on Blazing Five, which is solid. 1-1 on real bets…but the one we lost (DEN), I had more juice on – so, I’m in the hole to start the season. Our survivor pick squeaked by (SEA), so now we get to ride the Dolphins train (more on that below) for a while.
SEA at PIT (-3.5)
The Computer says: PIT by 13.1…Spread Differential 9.6
We got to watch the injury report here. My confidence is a bit shaky depending upon Joe Haden and T.J. Watt being out. I’d like to have Sean Davis back too. Tyler Lockett is questionable, so there’s that as well. This is a great public overreaction game…Steelers get crushed on national TV in Week 1, so time to panic. Which hides the fact Seattle should’ve lost their game to Cincy last week.
ARI at BAL (-13.0)
The Computer says: BAL by 5.9…Spread Differential 7.1
My commentary on this line… If the Ravens had played the Pats and lost by 30 on SNF (and they would have)…what would this line be for Week 2? Ravens -6-8? You’re giving me +13.5 with a potential offensive machine that won’t quit late and could backdoor cover? The Ravens may be down their top two CBs for this game (Jimmy Smith done, Humphrey ‘Q’).
PHI (-1.5) at ATL
The Computer says: ATL by 5.2…Spread Differential 6.7
I personally love Atlanta at home here. This would be a better bet if the Falcons had not just lost their starting center.
IND at TEN (-3)
The Computer says: IND by 3.3…Spread Differential 6.3
The Computer is not a fan of LAC and respects Indy’s O-Line and the Titans big win over CLE was helped by 18 penalties on the Browns and then just flailing a comeback hope at the end. Indy will play more sound ball and keep it close. Taking the points.
LAC (-1.5) at DET
The Computer says: DET by 3.8…Spread Differential 5.3
**This line keeps dropping…heading towards DET. We’ve been on that early.
LAC didn’t play great against Indy, at L.A. The Lions aren’t so terrible, and LAC not so great that the Chargers deserve to be road faves missing their top LT, TE, and SAF…and Mike Williams.
NO at LAR (-2.0)
The Computer says: NO by 3.2…Spread Differential 5.2
I was shocked when The Computer spit this out. The Computer is convinced this is the set up for the revenge game from the playoffs last year. Even though the Saints have a short week…this is a playoff type game. The L.A. crowd is not as big a factor as if this were in New Orleans. The Saints win…and then lose to whomever the play next week, I bet (I haven’t even looked).
KC at OAK (-7.0)
The Computer says: KC by 12.1…Spread Differential 4.1
The Raiders had to be near perfect to beat (not crush) the Broncos, who shot themselves in the foot all night on top of getting outcoached. KC has too much firepower if they can draw Oakland into a shootout. It’s a lot of points but do we think Oakland will play perfect ball two weeks in a row?
CLE (-6.5) at NYJ
The Computer says: CLE by 10.0…Spread Differential 3.5
*Still with CLE. Since the original post, Sam Darnold got mono and drove the line higher. I liked it better with Darnold at a lower line.
This might be the game where the football establishment has to look themselves in the mirror over siding with Darnold over Mayfield…Part II, because they conveniently looked past it when it happened last year. Gregg Williams ‘knowing’ this team is meaningless. He doesn’t know this version, and who cares if he does?
MIN at GB (-3.0)
The Computer says: GB by 6.1…Spread Differential 3.1
If the Vikings’ starting center is out, then we go Green Bay for sure. GB at home is usually money.
BUF (-1.5) at NYG
The Computer says: NYG by 1.2…Spread Differential 2.7
*This is a switch from THU.
I wouldn’t bet this for real. Buffalo is better in every facet except for QB mistake-prone plays…and that’s where the Giants might sneak out with a win here.
SF at CIN (-1.0)
The Computer says: SF by 1.0…Spread Differential 2.5
*I personally love SF here.
The Bengals played very well in their opener at Seattle, shoulda won. They were fairly impressive in the preseason and carried that over to the regular season. The 49ers looked OK but people think that it was all because of Jameis Winston that they won – see my upcoming recap of this game for the real story here on SF.
NE (-19.0) at MIA
The Computer says: NE by 21.3…Spread Differential 2.3
*SURVIVOR PICK* I’m going to do what everyone else is going to do…take whoever is playing Miami the next three weeks (NE, DAL, LAC) and then reassess during their Week 5 BYE. By then, we’ll see what key QB injury has happened, etc. You go on autopilot now against Miami until further notice. The Dolphins don’t start playing AFC East teams a second time until Week 11.
As far as this game goes, I’m very tempted to take the points here. We’ll see about the final weather reports and inactives, etc.
TB at CAR (-6.5)
The Computer says: CAR by 8.1…Spread Differential 1.6
*Already booked this loss…Carolina shoulda won this game by 10+ watching it live.
You get the TNF home edge (although CHI didn’t capitalize on it last week) and you go against Jameis Winston and let him make the mistakes to help you cover here.
DAL (-5.5) at WAS
The Computer says: DAL by 6.2…Spread Differential 0.7
*This is a switch from THU. Redskins down two key CBs.
The Redskins are on the verge of a full-fledged Miami-esque meltdown. I want to take the home team + points but the Redskins have so many injuries. I think the way AP is getting treated has also rubbed the players the wrong way. I don’t think there is a lot of like/belief in Guice among the players. Dallas should smack them down here, but Washington/Gruden is so crafty when you discount them. I’m not betting real money on this.
JAX at HOU (-8.5)
The Computer says: HOU by 8.5…Spread Differential 0.0
I have a feeling about this game: (1) I have a feeling Deshaun Watson is hurt worse than we know and may end up skipping this game…just a pure hunch. (2) I think the Jags reverse the embarrassment from Week 1 here and fire up. Not that the Jags are great, but that this is a do or die moment. At least, I get +8.5!
CHI (-2.5) at DEN
The Computer says: CHI by 2.5…Spread Differential 0.0
*I have a hunch on CHI in this game.
I take the points in any coin flip, especially a home team getting points. I’d go semi strong Denver if Denver just didn’t lose a top OL in-game last week and into the next few weeks. Denver is down a top CB, OL, and hopes to get their top ILB back. Chicago wasn’t as bad as their TNF game post reports were made out to be and gets 10 days to prepare vs. a short week for Denver. I may flip flop on this with more news the next few days.