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Handicapping Week 3 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)... *UPDATED

Date:
September 21, 2019

A pretty good start to the handicapping season. I feel like I’m dialing in, this year, to trends on-time/ahead of time. Went 11-5 ATS last week and I’m 19-13 (59%) picking all games ATS so far. 6-4 (60%) in the Blazing Five. And cruising like many in Survivor picks going anti-Miami.

I feel great about this week’s top picks…which is a sure sign of trouble (the gambler’s mindset).

 

*Update as of Saturday night lines/injuries…

 

 

LAR (-3.0) at CLE

The Computer says: LAR by 11.3…Spread Differential 8.3

*UPDATE* = The CLE injury list here is the worst I’ve seen of any team this season…key ones too, like both their starting CBs out…maybe all the four starting DBs out this week. It’s ugly. The Rams are going to kill the Browns here.

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The Rams are the 2nd-best run team in the NFL, and the Browns look like they might be the worst coached…what a disappointment the Browns have been. Freddie Kitchens got his shot and has totally blown it…a terrible-looking offense with Baker at the head. How is that possible? Bad planning and play design.

Bad teams looking bad is expected…the Jets, Miami…but the Browns have a ton of talent and look ridiculous. They may get it together one of these weeks, but against the Rams is not likely. I hope I’m wrong, but I think the Rams might win by 30 and send the Browns’ season into a tailspin.

 

CAR at ARI (-2.5)

The Computer says: ARI by 8.8…Spread Differential 6.3

Arizona has a much better offense than anyone gives credit + a much better defense…and now they are at home getting points against Kyle Allen…are you serious, bro? This is the last vestiges of disrespect from Arizona that the media wants to come true.

 

DEN at GB (-7.5)

The Computer says: GB by 0.6…Spread Differential 6.9

The Computer has been flirting with an outright upset call here. Denver is not nearly as bad as their 0-2 record suggests. Green Bay is the 2nd-worst 2-0 team…lucky they are not 0-2. This is a terrific time to take Denver...ESPECIALLY if Bryce Callahan plays. Then it’s a no-brainer+.

 

CIN at BUF (-6.0)

The Computer says: BUF by 0.7…Spread Differential 5.3

Buffalo is overshot in the public now. Should be 1-1 playing two awful teams. I get +6 and the better QB? I’ll take the points for sure.

 

NYG at TB (-6.5)

The Computer says: TB by 1.2…Spread Differential 5.3

Why such confidence in the Bucs? They still have Jameis Winston, don’t they? If Sterling Shepard is back for this game, I kinda like Daniel Jones bringing some new energy for a game here.

 

CHI (-4.0) at WAS

The Computer says: CHI by 8.4…Spread Differential 4.4

I like Washington as a ‘tough out’ team in some games, but this is not one of them. The Bears' defense will single handedly win this game and Nagy will run up points if he can to try to show he’s not a terrible O-C.

 

NO at SEA (-4.0)

The Computer says: SEA by 0.1…Spread Differential 3.9

Update = I don’t like the way Seattle’s injury report looks. We’ve been with NO all week, but even more as the week has gone on.

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If Taysom Hill starts right off the bat…I like NO here. Hill provides a twist, an energy that predictable Teddy doesn’t. If Taysom starts fully, I would not be shocked if the Saints take out Seattle for an upset here.

  

NYJ at NE (-22.5)

The Computer says: NE by 19.0…Spread Differential 3.5

*Update* = Switching to NYJ covering because I believe in Luke Falk not to be terrible here. And the AB cloud over this team, and missing 2-3 O-Linemen for NE.

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It wouldn’t shock me if the Jets kept this close for a while…it’s just the Patriots are a juggernaut.

 

ATL at IND (-1.5)

The Computer says: IND by 4.8…Spread Differential 3.4

Two similar teams but Indy much cleaner on the O-Line and ATL coming off a hard-hitting MNF game? I get the home team and only have to lay 1.5? Yes, please.

 

HOU at LAC (-3.0)

The Computer says: LAC by 5.9…Spread Differential 2.9

*Update* = Houston is flirting with more OL injuries/inactives to an already bad O-Line.

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No real conviction on either team this week.

 

OAK at MIN (8.5)

The Computer says: MIN by 6.8…Spread Differential 1.7

*Update* = the injury reports did not help OAK and slot CB Mike Hughes back for MIN is a help. Still taking the points but it’s a lot shakier to me now.

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The Computer has been trying to tell me all week that Oakland can pull an upset here. The Computer thinks Oakland is one of the best ‘public hates but are secretly OK/good’ teams in the NFL right now. What is Oakland’s crime? The outplayed Denver Week 1and they shutout KC for three quarters and got crushed by Mahomes in the other quarter. I get +8.5 to take a look! If Josh Jacobs is out or Tyrell Williams…then much lower confidence.

 

 

MIA at DAL (-22.5)

The Computer says: DAL by 21.1…Spread Differential 1.4

*Update* = Switching to Miami. Minor upgrades for them this week and then the line jumped another point.

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I could never bet this game for real. Miami is going to fight back one of these games and the team expected to win big is going to press/panic and help Miami cover. Could be this week.

*SURVIVOR PICK = Dallas*

 

DET at PHI (-6.0)

The Computer says: PHI by 5.2…Spread Differential 0.8

I just don’t think the Eagles are good enough on defense or healthy enough on offense to give 6.5 to any decent team.

 

PIT at SF (-6.5)

The Computer says: SF by 6.7…Spread Differential 0.2

If Mark Barron is listed as starting for PIT and James Conner is active as usual…I’d bet real money on SF here against Mike Tomlin’s awful personnel mgt and coaching.

 

BAL at KC (-5.5)

The Computer says: KC by 5.5…Spread Differential 0.0

*Update* = as this line keeps coming down, I like KC more…and early we had the fear of no McCoy/Williams, but we get McCoy and that may be really good for KC (one lead back). Switching from BAL to KC as the week goes on and line drops.

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It’s a lot of points to give up for a team that has shown little on defense. I get that KC can blow anyone out with Mahomes, so I’d never really bet against him/them…but I’ll take a decent team that can ground and pound to stay within 6.5.

 

TEN (-1.5) at JAX (WINNER booked)

The Computer says: TEN by 1.5…Spread Differential 0.0

If A.J. Bouye is playing, I take JAX straight up for the win. Without him and/or having to lock in picks early…I just take the home dog with Jacksonville. When in their right minds, I don’t know a position where Tennessee is better than Jacksonville except linebacker. I’d rather have Minshew than Mariota.  




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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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