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Handicapping Week 4 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)... (Update)

Date:
September 29, 2019

*Picks updated for the latest info…

 

A decent start to the handicapping season…

We’re 28-20 (58%) on picking all games ATS so far this season.

9-6 (60%) in the Blazing Five.

Still alive, like most, in Survivor pools because of Miami.

My worst thing has been my BEST bets have all died three straight weeks. Week 2, Ben got hurt, so I give myself a small pass but still no $$$. So, I’m retreating to doing more baskets of picks with more equal amounts of money and just trying to go 60%+ to move a profit…like I did the last two weeks in my Me vs. The Stock Market picks…but less money on my top pick of the week (which the loss on is wiping out 4-5 other wins we played smaller).

Here are my Computer picks for Week 4 based on THU am info. I’ll update these picks Saturday night. Blazing Five Saturday morning. Me v. Stock Market on Sunday morning.

 

 

 

NE (-7.0) at BUF

The Computer says: NE by 21.5…Spread Differential 14.5

The Computer is convinced this is going to be a butt-whooping. The Bills have no real weapons on offense and a nice defense, while the Patriots have the best defense in football and have various ways to beat a good defense with their offense. I don’t believe the Bills can get to more than 10 points here if Devin Singletary isn’t playing/starting/the lead, so the Pats just need to get to 17 to push. They should do that.

The Bills scored 12 and 6 points against NE last year…and the Pats defense got mo’ better than the Bills’ offense in the past year. The Pats scored 25 and 24 against the Bills in 2018.

 

KC (-6.5) at DET

The Computer says: KC by 16.3…Spread Differential 9.3

The first game on turf for the Mahomes-led Chiefs…if my info is correct on that. First dome run, which means it should be a track meet favoring the track meet team – KC. No Darius Slay might make this the best bet of the week. The Lions could very well be 0-3, not 2-0-1 and then this line more like 9.5 not a gift at 6.5.

 

MIN at CHI (-2.0)

The Computer says: MIN by 7.0…Spread Differential 9.0

The Computer has pointed this out as a best bet from the jump – that the Vikings were going to upset the Bears here. I’m suspicious of that, but The Computer has been hitting a nice percentage of the underdogs it thinks is the real favorite in the game. So, I ride with The Computer here.

 

JAX at DEN (-3.0)

The Computer says: JAX by 4.8…Spread Differential 7.8

Another road dog The Computer likes. The Jalen Ramsey mystery you’d think will be bad, but the Jags may be better off without the distraction. Still, he’s awesome…it would be a loss on the field, but maybe not in the locker room. Denver has so many bad metrics The Computer likes the Jags to push through here. Denver is so due to win…and this at Denver. Something just doesn’t feel right about the Jags here, does it?

 

OAK at IND (-7.0)

The Computer says: IND by 0.2…Spread Differential 6.8

The Computer sees something in the Raiders. It may be an early false read. It doesn’t believe the Raiders are the joke they public thinks. And the Colts are not a super high-end team to give a TD to the dog…right?

 

TB at LAR (-9.5)

The Computer says: LAR by 13.8…Spread Differential 4.3

I like this as a real bet if the line is under 10.0. The Rams are superior in every way to the Bucs and when you’re facing Winston, as a bettor, I like it. He’s good for giving up points to a good-great D like the Rams.

 

PHI at GB (-4.0)

The Computer says: GB by 8.8…Spread Differential 4.8

The Packers have the better defense by a mile. The better offense/QB. The Pack also has TNF home field. What’s not to love here?

 

WAS at NYG (-3.0)

The Computer says: WAS by 3.4…Spread Differential 6.4

The Computer would have this as a best bet if Case Keenum was good-to-go for sure. We’re going WAS but confidence levels wavering on Keenum’s foot.

 

SEA (-5.5) at ARI

The Computer says: ARI by 0.3…Spread Differential 5.8

Arizona has to at least cover this one…right? Please? God? Anyone listening? The Cards have covered two of three this season. I think this is #3…and hopefully a high-scoring victory!!

 

DAL (-2.5) at NO

The Computer says: DAL by 4.2…Spread Differential 1.7

The Saints beating Seattle last week is throwing this line some, but if you consider Seattle is terrible then it’s a different perspective. The Saints without Brees is very bet-against-able.

 

CIN at PIT (-3.5)

The Computer says: PIT by 1.5…Spread Differential 2.0

The Computer senses a possibility of an outright upset here but take the points as a bonus. The Steelers are pretty bad in every facet as they continue to start Conner and Barron on purpose.

 

TEN at ATL (-4.0)

The Computer says: ATL by 4.6…Spread Differential 0.6

Atlanta is a much better home team than road team. The Titans are fading away.

 

CLE at BAL (-7.0)

The Computer says: BAL by 6.4…Spread Differential 0.6

We’ll have more confidence in this if Denzel Ward is playing. The Ravens have no quality wins and should be 1-2 with just a win over Miami.

 

CAR at HOU (-4.0)

The Computer says: HOU by 3.1…Spread Differential 0.9

Carolina should/could be 3-0 right now. Kyle Allen is a better QB than Cam Newton. I get a good team + points.

*I wouldn’t touch this with the injury report the Panthers have.

 

LAC (15.5) at MIA

The Computer says: LAC by 15.2…Spread Differential 0.3

The Dolphins Week 3 game was a lot closer at Dallas than the final score showed. Miami is playing with a little more spark the past two weeks. It’s asking a lot for LAC to go west-to-east for a 1pm start in hot Miami, a tough road trip place to play and LAC isn’t a great road team.

*SURVIVOR POOL PICK* We gotta keep riding this. Need to find a new team next week because Miami is on a BYE.




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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>