Handicapping Week 5: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)
Slightly under .500 ATS for the year, just above .500 on the Blazing Five…treading water basically overall. Isolated top plays…’bets of the year’ plays are starting to get on a roll. Over/under win total bets from the preseason are breaking our way strong after four weeks. It’s been an overallgood start to the year besides a meandering .500 in all picks and Blazing Five contest, so far.
I feel good about the data interpretations of the 2018 season with every week of data we add. I’m due for one of those sweet 10+ win weeks on all picks and like a 4-1 B5 to get that party started. I really like the data/early read I see on some of the games this week, so hopefully this is the week the wheel starts to turn.
Contest Records ATS through Week 4:
38-21-4 = Savage
34-25-4 = Katz
33-26-4 = Skol
31-28-4 = Rabbitt
28-31-4 = RC
*7-3-1 when the group is 5-0 agreement on a pick (all picks not submitted yet, so no plays yet to report)
Blazing Five Contest:
14-5-1 = Katz
11-7-2 = Savage
11-8-1 = Colin Cowherd
10-9-1 = Skolman
10-9-1 = RC
7-11-2 = Rabbitt
*6-1-0 = When 3 or more of the group agrees on a B5 pick (B5 picks made Friday, we’ll see if we have any).
TEN (-3.5) at BUF
The Computer Says: TEN by 18.5 (15.0 point spread differential)
One of our top bets of the week. I’m a little skittish going heavy on the Titans because I don’t like the Titans, in general (kinda like Miami’s 3-0 start), but if I step back and just look at the numbers – the Titans have been very good/solid all season and the Buffalo Bills have been an atrocity. I think that the Minnesota fluke for Buffalo is keeping people tethered to the Bills as an ‘any given Sunday’ threat, when in reality they have been an embarrassment…while the Titans have been stable and tough. Unless ‘fluky’ happens again this is the Titans walking away.
ARI at SF (-4.5)
The Computer Says: ARI by 17.8 (13.3 point spread differential)
I LOVE this play this week. The Cardinals are better than the 49ers in almost every position/unit on the field…except maybe TE. Arizona is overdue for a win and C.J. Beathard is not a good QB and he’s working with a banged up WR group and an overrated run game. I Like ARI for a blowout win here.
**Three games this season the Computer has said the game was 10+ points off the spread, and it's 2-1 so far in those three games. Two this week (above) and possibly the next one or two (below)**
GB (-1.0) at DET
The Computer Says: DET by 9.4 (8.4 point spread differential)
The Computer LOVES the Lions and thinks they are clearly the better team here and win going away. The Lions get into the playoff race…or die, right here in this game. I think it will be the Packers dying and falling into a panic.
GB should have lost to CHI opening week and lucky to tie MIN. They were handled by Washington and WOW they beat Buffalo. I think the Packers are in a lot of trouble and they could get mauled by the Lions here.
LAR (-7.0) at SEA
The Computer Says: LAR by 15.2 (8.2 point spread differential)
The Rams embarrassed Seattle late last year at Seattle (42-7). They now face a worse Seattle team who just lost Earl Thomas. This should be a blood bath…again.
JAC at KC (-3.0)
The Computer Says: KC by 9.9 (6.9 point spread differential)
If the Chiefs can dice up the Jags defense a little because of St. Patrick…then the Jags will have to try to engage in a shootout with Blake Bortles. I don’t care how weak the KC defense is…Bortles v. Mahomes is going to St.P. The Jags have been pushed around by high-flying QBs recently (Big Ben in the playoffs, Brady in playoffs, Garoppolo late 2017).
OAK at LAC (-5.0)
The Computer Says: OAK by 1.0 (6.0 point spread differential)
This is one part The Computer respects Oakland as a scrappy team, but it’s more The Computer thinks the Chargers are really no better than the Raiders…so why not take +5.0? This line opened at -7.0 and fell fast to -5.0, so someone else sees the Chargers’ problem here too. Would not be shocked with a Raiders upset.
WAS at NO (-6.5)
The Computer Says: NO by 1.0 (5.5 point spread differential)
The Computer is indicating this might be a Washington outright win. The nod goes to NO straight up because ‘home’ and ‘MNF’, but we’ll definitely take the points here.
NYG at CAR (-7.0)
The Computer Says: CAR by 11.8 (4.8 point spread differential)
Carolina is one of the better teams in football and the Giants are trying to win with Eli Manning doing a Sam Bradford/2018 impression. I’ll take the better team at home off a BYE week.
MIN at PHI (-3.0)
The Computer Says: MIN by 1.0 (4.0 point spread differential)
I like the Vikings’ story of 10 days off from seeing that they have work to do to beat the Rams, but they hung with them. Now, they face the team that embarrassed them in the Final Four last season. Revenge and desperation against a fading Eagles team here.
DEN at NYJ (-1.0)
The Computer Says: DEN by 2.7 (3.7 point spread differential)
I don’t love the Broncos, but they are better than the Jets. The Broncos have some offensive firepower and a better defense…the Jets have a wildly overrated QB by the media and that’s keeping this line propped up.
IND at NE (-10)
The Computer Says: NE by 12.5 (2.5 point spread differential)
If Indy was at semi-full strength, the active roster they played to start Week 4…I would have been all-in on a Colts outright upset here. However, the Colts have three CBs they may be without. Their main ILB. T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack, and Jack Doyle out. Even Adam Vinatieri looks to be out. How can you go Colts when they are running a JV team against the Patriots?
ATL at PIT (-3.0)
The Computer Says: PIT by 5.2 (2.2 point spread differential)
I guess the way to play the Steelers is…when they are pronounced dead after a bad loss, they’ll win the next week. After a win, they seem ‘righted’…which means they’ll lose the next week. We go Steelers here with no conviction.
BAL (-3.0) at CLE
The Computer Says: BAL by 2.1 (0.9 point spread differential)
I am totally fine taking the Browns at home with Mayfield getting points. I wouldn’t bet it because the Browns always find a way to lose, but for sheer picking I’ll take the points that Mayfield shocks the Ravens.
MIA at CIN (-6.5)
The Computer Says: CIN by 7.4 (0.9 point spread differential)
I need Cincy to get this win for my over/under win total bet to be all but secure. At Cincy against a Miami team that’s a lucky 3-1…this should be an easy win, but that’s what scares me -- this is where the Bengals tend to flop.
DAL at HOU (-3.5)
The Computer Says: HOU by 2.8 (0.7 point spread differential)
Hard to get confident on Houston or Dallas right now – the numbers are bad for both. We’ll just take the points.