My Weeks 1-3 hottish start picking all games ATS got punted in Week 4 with a delightful 4-12 mark…sending me all the way back to .500 picking all games ATS. Ugg.
I know it was a crazy week and most bettors were down across the board, but 4-12. I can only get so upset when I pick some winners and they just miss covering (NE and KC, I’m looking at you). Regardless, it was a crappy week and fall from grace to (32-32) .500, which is garbage. My dog could do better. One week has ruined the first month, but we kick the dog and get back on the bike and start pedaling. It’s time for all the clichés after a bad betting week.
Starting this week, now with four weeks in the books, I’m going to start relying even more on the 2019 data and game trends and almost nothing to do with my own team projections mixed in. We’ll see how we do this next 4-week stretch using all the 2019 data that we want to close our eyes, fall backwards on and trust.
You’re going to see some unusual ‘differentials’ this week because of the change. But, note – this is my computer models now picking this week based on team data/results and betting trends -- betting trends we think we see for 2019 emerging. Just because I type that X team is projected by 7 points…doesn’t mean I think that team is 7 points better in the universal debate…we have trends like -- home-away, off a bye, off TNF or MNF, divisional games, time of day, east-to-west coast, multiple home/road trips, etc., to mess with now.
I tweaked things quite a bit for Week 5, so this could be a hot mess…or hot apple pie. Let’s see.
Based on information through Thursday morning, we’ll update again on Saturday…
MIN (-5.0) at NYG
The Computer says: MIN by 18.3…Spread Differential 13.3
I get a lot of components I like here, and some others must too…as this line has jumped by 1+ points this week more in favor of Minnesota. The Vikings coming off an embarrassing loss with all kinds of controversy swirling – they will be primed this week and face a team full of itself in the Giants and their 2-game win streak and fake/terrible QB Daniel Jones. This is going to be a bloodbath if Garrett Bradbury is active.
ARI at CIN (-3.0)
The Computer says: ARI by 7.3…Spread Differential 10.3
You might think…I’m not taking the Cardinals; all they do is get sacked all the time. Yes, they are #1 in sacks allowed. It’s rough, but the Bengals are only one sack allowed away from Arizona from being the worst.
The Cardinals keep getting close to clicking, and then missing it. The Bengals peaked in Week 1…and they’ve been dying sense. This is the game Arizona can get right in.
Arizona has covered two of 4 games this season and has played all good+ teams.
Cincy got blasted at home a few weeks ago, and have covered two of 4 games this year as well…but they’ve never been a favorite either.
CLE at SF (-4.0)
The Computer says: SF by 12.7…Spread Differential 8.7
I’ll be rooting for the Browns because I need Baker to take off for fantasy. However, I have to pick the 49ers here – a bye week and an MNF game…plenty of days rest and prep for SF and at home for an MNF contest. The 49ers are playing sound football and Cleveland is erratic and coming off an emotional win. The Browns defense could be a menacing force here, but the 49ers are #1 in the league in least amount of sacks given up. The 49ers have a dangerous front D-Line to and the Browns have a problem protecting. I think there are too many factors going against a better Browns team eventually…but not this particular week. All the ‘betting factors’ are with SF here.
NE (-15.5) at WAS
The Computer says: NE by 23.4…Spread Differential 7.9
Besides the fact that the Redskins are terrible, I think Washington/Gruden will play this game to keep key people healthy for next week – so he can beat Miami and make sure Redskins management loses out on a #1 draft pick opportunity, plus he doesn’t want to lose to Miami. Gruden knows he going to lose so he won’t put players in harm's way here if he can help it. He’s already on to Miami.
GB at DAL (-3.5) *CHANGE FROM THU*
The Computer says: GB by 1.9…Spread Differential 5.4
This one has been going back and forth depending upon the injury reports. Dallas losing Tyron Smith is huge. Davante Adams out is really big too. Final decision will be Sunday morning but with everything so close, we’ll just take the points. Green Bay has had 10 days off, and Dallas is coming off a shorter week (kinda) letdown and missing it’s top OL.
LAR at SEA (-1.5) *Won/COVER TNF*
The Computer says: LAR by 3.7…Spread Differential 5.2
I think the Rams are going to humiliate the Seahawks on cable television on TNF. Coming off an utter embarrassment Sunday while Seattle has been riding a wave of luck to their 3-1 record. Seattle’s three wins were against teams who are a combined 1-11-1…and the one win because two of them played each other and someone had to win (PIT over CIN). The Rams get right here, and I get +1.5. I just wish the Rams didn’t have all the LB injuries, but I think they have the depth to overcome.
I’m betting this game for the Rams lightly for sure, but medium strength if LT Duane Brown is inactive.
CHI (-5.5) at OAK
The Computer says: CHI by 10.1…Spread Differential 4.6
I wouldn’t be shocked if Oakland covered or even won here. By the final inactive declarations on Sunday morning…I may have switched to Oakland depending upon the injury reports. The Bears D is so good, but Derek Carr gets rid of the ball quickly and doesn’t take on many sacks. Oakland can outsmart Chicago here. Jon Gruden has done a nice job of coaching and game planning in 2019.
BAL (-3.5) at PIT
The Computer says: BAL by 7.7…Spread Differential 4.2
Classic bounce back game – Ravens off two bad losses and Pitt feels good for a win over Cincy on MNF. This is where the Ravens come in and burst their fake bubble of confidence in Pittsburgh.
NYJ at PHI (-14.5)
The Computer says: PHI by 11.0…Spread Differential 3.5
The Computer has been wanting to take the Jets and the points all along this week of info input. Darnold or Falk makes no difference. The Computer does not trust the Eagles and the Jets have a pretty good defense and could keep this close with two weeks off/prep time.
This is my SURVIVOR pick, however. I can’t use NE over WAS, so I go here. Philly is the better team, at home, and has 10 days rest as well.
BUF at TEN (-3.0)
The Computer says: TEN by 0.1…Spread Differential 2.9
Taking the Bills coming off a tough loss. Taking the points and hoping for a cover/outright win. The Bills are a better bet with Matt Barkley.
IND at KC (-11.0)
The Computer says: KC by 13.4…Spread Differential 2.4
Indy could be missing Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, and Darius Leonard on top of being the much inferior team. This could get out of hand quickly.
DEN at LAC (-6.5)
The Computer says: LAC by 4.1…Spread Differential 2.4
I have a funny feeling Denver gets their first win here, but I’ll take +6.5 to find out.
TB at NO (-3.0)
The Computer says: NO by 3.8…Spread Differential 0.8
The Computer thinks Jameis Winston cannot have three good games in a row. The Saints at home are too tough. In 2017 and 2018, Winston is 1-2 against the Saints with 3 TDs/4 INTs and barely a 50% Comp. Pct. The Saints will bring the pressure Winston hates…sacked 3 or more times in 2018-2019, Winston has thrown 11 TDs/11 INTs in those games. The Saints will get to him and there will be turnovers.
JAX at CAR (-3.5) *CHANGE FROM THU*
The Computer says: CAR by 3.1…Spread Differential 0.4
This could flip to Jacksonville +points depending upon Ramsey playing AND how bad Minshew is hurt. I think Minshew is more banged up then they are letting on. He got rocked late in the Denver game last week. How he finished and won that game is a Minshew-miracle.
ATL at HOU (-4.0) *CHANGE FROM THU*
The Computer says: HOU by 4.0…Spread Differential 0.0
I figured the computer would want the points here, but it’s showing the Texans are too superior a matchup for Atlanta under normal circumstances. The Falcons are much better at home, and much shakier on the road.