Handicapping Week 6 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)...
All games ATS:
43-34-1 (55.8%) = Katz (9-5-1 Wk5)
42-35-1 (54.5%) = Skol (9-5-1 Wk5)
41-36-1 (53.2%) = RC (9-5-1 Wk5)
40-37-1 (51.9%) = Rabbitt (8-6-1 Wk5)
34-43-1 (44.2%) = Savage (9-5-1 Wk5)
Blazing Five YTD:
18-7 (72.0%) = Colin (4-1 last wk)
15-10 (60.0%) = RC (5-0)
14-10-1 (58.3%) = Savage (3-1-1)
14-11 (56.0%) = Katz (3-2)
12-13 (48.0%) = Skol (3-2)
12-13 (48.0%) = Rabbitt (3-2)
Well, a few tweaks to the system last week and ‘pow’…you go 5-for-5 in the Blazing Five. Not easy to do. I’m impressed with it because each win was pretty strong…not a lot of luck or weirdness – just The Computer identifying the right teams winning…including underdogs outright winning. A great week, coming off a bad one, to ‘right’ the ship.
9-5-1 all games ATS last week, not bad, makes up for the bad Week 4. I’m going to keep leaning on the betting trends I’m seeing that worked last week – so, let’s see if Week 5 was luck or we’re onto something here…
Note – My spread projections/differentials…my system is built to look at the week in a bubble. The key injuries (which are somewhat unknown for some teams yet) factor in. Betting trends in general for what’s working on home/away, off a bye, etc., are factored in. It’s not a system that is trying to say X team is Y points better than Z team in general…it’s my computer model trying to tell me which teams have the best betting characteristics (that have been working prior) going into THIS PARTICULAR WEEK + the injuries + how the team has been playing recently, etc.
TEN at DEN (-2.0)
The Computer says: TEN by 12.1…Spread Differential 14.1
The Computer is losing its mind in love with this upset play. Denver is not very good…they beat a not very good LAC team in an unimpressive fashion for their first win last week. Denver is scrappy but dull, sound but no killer instinct. The Titans are nothing special, but they bring a top pass rush to face a team that has a terrible pass rush and is weak against the run, and they’ll see a lot of Derrick Henry.
I like Tennessee plus the points, but The Computer says all the betting planets align here.
SEA (-1.5) at CLE
The Computer says: CLE by 11.9…Spread Differential 13.4
I love this bounce back play. The Browns are not that bad but got whooped by a team with 15 days to rest/prep and at their house on an MNF game. Plus, the 49ers are good, and the Browns had some bad breaks early and then it snowballed. Love this bet this week with Seattle on the road. And the weather a little cooler than it has been.
DAL (-7.0) at NYJ
The Computer says: DAL by 17.0…Spread Differential 10.0
The Computer has thought all week this would be an epic blowout by Dallas. Dallas coming off two losses, and still a good team goes to NYJ to play another NY-media/NY-centric puffed up QB…and they think Darnold’s return is going to really matter. I love Dallas to destroy here.
NYG at NE (-16.5) *WINNER*
The Computer says: NE by 25.8…Spread Differential 9.3
I mean…the Giants are worse at every position than the Redskins team that the Pats just beat. How does NE not cover this going away. The Pats are still trying to fix their offense, so they will pile it on if they can. This is a Pats cover for sure. Daniel Jones love in the media is the only thing holding this line from being 20. Take this bet and lay 17 or less -- and I’m taking it in my stock market bets this week.
HOU at KC (-4.0)
The Computer says: KC by 12.8…Spread Differential 8.8
I like KC off a bad national TV loss and Houston riding high in the public because they scored a lot of points…against powerful Atlanta. I don’t love the Chiefs in general, but I love all the betting markers here.
CAR (-2.0) at TB
The Computer says: CAR by 9.0…Spread Differential 7.0
Carolina’s defense is humming, and they face the turnover prone Jameis Winston, a QB who does not do well under duress and the panthers are #2 in the NFL in sacks. If McCaffrey is out, I think we’re fine with Bonnafon.
PIT at LAC (-7.0)
The Computer says: LAC by 0.9…Spread Differential 6.1
I thought LAC would be the play here, but the Chargers’ internals are weak, and the Steelers’ internals are improving. The Chargers are at home, but there will probably be more Steelers fans in attendance. Mason Rudolph plays…and I think it’s a Steelers upset. I’ll take the +7.0 just in case. LAC’s O-Line is so devastated right now.
SF at LAR (-3.0)
The Computer says: LAR by 8.2…Spread Differential 5.2
The 49ers losing Mike McGlinchey here is HUGE. Swings it over to the Rams, plus the Rams have 10 days to prep for this game. 49ers have 6 days.
DET at GB (-4.5)
The Computer says: GB by 0.4…Spread Differential 4.1
The Computer is flirting with an outright upset call here…depends upon Davante Adams playing or not. Detroit may be a better team all around. This might be the spot the Packers’ wheels fall off the bus. The Lions have had two weeks to prepare for Matt LaFleur’s terrible offense.
NO at JAX (-1.5)
The Computer says: JAX by 5.3…Spread Differential 3.8
The Computer is flipping back and forth every day on this with the latest injury news. Jalen Ramsey really back means Jags are the pick. This may change by Saturday/Sunday.
CIN at BAL (-11.0)
The Computer says: BAL by 8.2…Spread Differential 2.8
Baltimore is a nice run team and Cincy cannot stop the run. This should be a Ravens victory but the 11.5 might be a bit too steep, a possible Cincy backdoor cover because Cincy can throw in garbage time well…but the Ravens pass defense is weak.
*SURVIVOR PICK* The best pure play on the board for me. Can’t use NE-DAL-LAC.
PHI at MIN (-3.0)
The Computer says: MIN by 0.3…Spread Differential 2.7
Another game The Computer is flipping back and forth on. Minnesota so tough at home, and Philly SO many CB injuries still. This may change by Saturday/Sunday.
ATL (-2.5) at ARI
The Computer says: ATL by 2.8…Spread Differential 0.3
We have a feeling this is where Atlanta surprises and Arizona continues its FG ways. Arizona tried to lose to Cincy late last week. The other factor is – Arizona’s on the verge of having such strong numbers on offense you don’t want to be on the other side of the bet when it happens. Most teams – you know who they are. We haven’t seen the full Arizona yet.
WAS (-3.5) at MIA
The Computer says: WAS by 3.4…Spread Differential 0.1
In a battle of bad teams, I’ll take the one at home + points.