Handicapping Week 7: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)
I’m out of sync with the NFL betting right now. It was a bad week last week picking all games ATS, but it was a bad week across Vegas as well. A weird week. I can’t be too upset, but my wandering around .500 all year followed by the bad Week 6 has me sunk sub .500 on all picks and Blazing Five. Top bets/real bets are doing fine/good…the overall contest picking has been a minor disaster. I’m not just a good week away, now I need two good weeks to get rolling.
I looked back at the last few weeks to try to find obvious trends to play/what I’m missing…but I really don’t see any good trends so far this year. The things that worked last year…it works one game, then gets blown up the next (picking all games or B5).
After researching the past few weeks of real results this week and looking at what my Computer models are getting right or wrong on all picks, I declare that I am not in sync with the NFL at all…not discovering any trends that are working strong. I’m in dart throw/coin flip land. I would not follow my own Computer picks any more than anything else right now. We’re not working, and I haven’t found anything detailed to jump on/switch to. It’s a very random year trend wise, in my world.
My top bets are working well, so I’m resting there.
My bigger basket of picks aren’t working, so I’ve tweaked the models a bit to chase things that are kinda working (big picture/trends) and see how that does. So, this is a different look this week. A debut of a tweak. We’ll see if that jump starts…but I would caution on any confidence in this right now until I put up ‘one of those weeks’ to get rolling.
Betting on my best bet and betting on if three or more of our group picks a Blazing Five team…that’s what’s working strong right now.
So, for entertainment purposes only…
Contest Records ATS thru Week 6:
52-35-6 = Savage
47-40-6 = Katz
40-33-6 = Skol
45-42-6 = Rabbitt
39-48-6 = RC
*9-6-1 when group is in 5-0 agreement
Blazing Five Through Week 6:
18-10-1 = Katz
18-9-3 = Savage
16-13-1 = Colin Cowherd
15-14-1 = Skolman
13-15-2 = RC
10-18-2 = Rabbitt
*8-3-0 when 3 or more in group agree on a B5…
CIN at KC (-6.0)
The Computer Says: KC by 22.7 (16.7 point spread differential)
Bet of the Year…and when I’ve labeled or hinted a game like that since Week 2, I haven’t lost a wager. Raiders, Lions 2x, Steelers last week, Cards in their first win, etc. My bets of the year on underdogs has been ‘money’. My bets of the year on favorites haven’t had as many plays to know a trend.
I've not seen numbers like this since our Week picky of Cincy upset Inday (winner), the Lions +points over Dallas (covered), and last week with Minnesota over Arizona (push).
BUF at IND (-7.5)
The Computer Says: IND by 19.0 (11.5 point spread differential)
No team makes less sense in my system than the Colts. I’d argue my Computer’s hierarchy of teams is right on the button, but then has the Colts #10 best team in the NFL. What? I try to take these things seriously because The Computer sees things ahead of the crowd a lot. I’m making this play one more time and then I’m going to assume a computer glitch on the Colts.
NE (-3.0) at CHI
The Computer Says: CHI by 7.8 (10.8 point spread differential)
Khalil Mack news could dip this to strong lean Bears instead of a ‘great play’. I’m waiting on Mack news before deciding to play this or not. You think I’m just ‘loving’ my Bears here…no, it’s The Computer doesn’t think the Patriots are that good…on top of Vegas/the masses disrespecting the Bears.
HOU at JAC (-5.0)
The Computer Says: JAC by 13.9 (8.9 point spread differential)
LOVE this game fore the Jags. Can only love a game with Bortles at QB so much, though.
DAL at WAS (-1.5)
The Computer Says: WAS by 9.8 (8.3 point spread differential)
The Computer just likes the trending on Dallas home/away…0-3 on the road. Plus, the public loves Dallas after they bopped the Jags, so the line is down from that too. Really like the Skins here.
DET (-3.0) at MIA
The Computer Says: DET by 10.8 (7.8 point spread differential)
We like the Lions as an obvious pick here, but two weeks off for the Lions and at Miami where football players go to party and disappoint on Sunday…it’s not as obvious.
NYG at ATL (-5.5)
The Computer Says: NYG by 0.3 (5.8 point spread differential)
My Computer liked the Giants, in general, a few weeks ago but has been walking away from them the last few weeks. However, it’s still has a flicker of a flame for them. Plus, my Computer things the Falcons are horrible. ATL’s wins at home this year are by 7 and 5 -- and have lost two home games. Falcons covering a 5.5 line is not a given. Giants off 10 days off and after being humiliated…we like the NYG trending to cover here.
NO at BAL (-2.5)
The Computer Says: BAL by 8.0 (5.5 point spread differential)
Outdoors, 50 degrees and windy…that’s an unkind thing for the Saints/Brees usually.
MIN (-3.5) at NYJ
The Computer Says: MIN by 9.0 (5.5 point spread differential)
A game I’m not interested in as a bettor. I feel out of sync with betting/picking for-against the Jets.
CAR at PHI (-4.5)
The Computer Says: PHI by 0.5 (4.1 point spread differential)
Carolina is the arguably the better football team in most phases here, so I’ll take +4.5 points if I have to. Philly has three wins over teams that are a combined 4-14 this season…yippee, they beat the Giants last week on national TV!!
LAR (-9.5) at SF
The Computer Says: LAR by 5.8 (3.7 point spread differential)
I would never bet against the Rams for real, but they’ve been letting weaker teams hang around of late. The Rams defense isn’t ‘all that’ without Aqib Talib. Depending on injury reports this might swing slight Rams this weekend.
TEN v. LAC (-6.5)
The Computer Says: LAC by 4.1 (2.4 point spread differential)
Two teams I cannot figure out. The data is all over the place. TEN has had the better season/more quality wins. LAC is the better team, you’d think…but has only beat losers and lost to winners. Is Tennessee more in the loser camp? ‘At London’, adds more confusion. The Computer says if you have to – take the points.
DEN (-1.5) at ARI
The Computer Says: ARI by 0.3 (1.8 point spread differential)
TNF home teams usually play well…5-1 straight up YTD (4-2 ATS), but home dogs are 0-1 (NYG last week). This is a game of two bad teams with two bad coaches going to try to run at each other all game (#31 and #32 run defenses, respectively). No, thanks.
CLE at TB (-3.0)
The Computer Says: TB by 2.7 (0.3 point spread differential)
I feel like the Browns can get a road win here, but it’s the Browns…so, I have no confidence in them…or the Bucs.