Handicapping Week 7 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)...
All games ATS:
50-41-1 (54.9%) = Katz (7-7 Wk6)
49-42-1 (53.8%) = Skol (7-7 Wk6)
48-43-1 (52.7%) = Rabbitt (8-6 Wk6)
47-44-1 (51.6%) = RC (6-8 Wk6)
41-50-1 (45.1%) = Savage (7-7 Wk6)
Followed up a nice Week 5 with a weak Week 6. A lot of tough games to figure this week, with a few pearls I really like/will really bet. I’m due for a 10+ win ‘all picks’ week…hopefully this week. I only made a small tweak this week to my formulas based on the latest (last 4 weeks) trending. Week 6 was either an anomaly with some of the games (a lot of pro gamblers got crushed last week) or the NFL just shifts too quickly to ever stay a step ahead of. The chase continues…!
Note – My spread projections/differentials…my system is built to look at the week in a bubble. The key injuries (which are somewhat unknown for some teams yet) factor in. Betting trends in general for what’s working on home/away, off a bye, etc., are factored in. It’s not a system that is trying to say X team is Y points better than Z team in general…it’s my computer model trying to tell me which teams have the best betting characteristics (that have been working prior) going into THIS PARTICULAR WEEK + the injuries + how the team has been playing recently, etc.
JAX (-4.0) at CIN
The Computer says: JAX by 22.9…Spread Differential 18.9
The Computer has loved this game from the jump. Two starting corners out for the Bengals…maybe their best defensive players on a bad defense…now even worse. If the Jags don’t destroy Cincy, I’ll be shocked. I think this line is down because the public doesn’t trust Jacksonville, especially after a clunker vs. New Orleans – this is not like facing New Orleans. This could be the bet of the year (which is the kiss of death).
PHI at DAL (-2.5)
The Computer says: PHI by 11.0…Spread Differential 13.5
The Computer thinks this could be huge for Philly because the injury report may wipe out four of Dallas’s top 10 players on the team – two OLs, Amari, Byron Jones. Philly is already better, but then give them this huge advantage of the wounded Cowboys…love this play this week.
SF (-10.0) at WAS
The Computer says: SF by 19.7…Spread Differential 10.2
The Computer hates giving up 10.0 but doesn’t see how Washington could possibly hang in this game. With the small chance Dwayne Haskins starts…at this stage of the week we have to go 49ers.
BAL at SEA (-3.5)
The Computer says: BAL by 6.5…Spread Differential 9.5
Seattle has been the luckiest team in the NFL this season. Not that they aren’t good, but they have won a lot of games by NFL luck/too close. I’ll be happy to take the points here with two good, but overrated, teams playing.
LAC at TEN (-2.5)
The Computer says: LAC by 6.4…Spread Differential 8.9
It’s not because of the move to Tannehill…it’s just The Computer thinks the Chargers matchup well here in this spot – especially if Denver wins TNF. If Denver beats KC, then the Chargers have a lot of life/motivation injected into them.
HOU at IND (-1.0)
The Computer says: IND by 9.3…Spread Differential 8.4
I love everything about the Colts this week. Houston has two high profile wins in-a-row where they didn’t really play great but scored a lot of points in shootouts…and that looks ‘cool’ to the public. Denver winning via defense is boring/unimpressive. Houston outscoring bad defenses is seen as awesome. Whenever the NFL analysts pile onto something, bet the other way. This week Deshaun Watson is the best QB in football per all the talking heads. I’ll take the superior team at all the other positions…and with Houston down two starting CBs.
LAR (-3.0) at ATL
The Computer says: LAR by 8.5…Spread Differential 5.5
The Computer likes this if Ramsey is active/playing. It’s more wishy-washy if Ramsey is out. The Rams have been devastated by injury that without some Ramsey infusion, they could get caught here playing at Atlanta.
NE (-9.5) at NYJ
The Computer says: NE by 5.7…Spread Differential 3.8
Yes, I’m impressed with the Jets…but I’m also totally unimpressed with the Patriots. I know they are good, but they are not world beaters – they are getting over huge on a cake schedule. We don’t know how good/bad they really are. I can get a scrappy Jets team + two scores on MNF with a totally wounded Pats offense – I’ll take my chances with the points.
KC (-3.0) at DEN *Already booked the win*
The Computer says: KC by 6.7…Spread Differential 3.7
I would not bet any real money on this. My data says that KC is in a decent spot here because Denver is more great coverage than suffocating pass rush, and thus Mahomes can pick that apart. However, Denver’s D is metamorphizing so quickly into good+ that Fangio might have another gear for hapless Andy Reid here.
KC is 0-4 in their last 4 games against the spread. It’s such an overrated KC team, but they are due for a bounce and Denver is due for a flop. We’ll have to check the injury reports to be sure…KC could be down two starting corners.
MIN (-1.5) at DET
The Computer says: DET by 1.2…Spread Differential 2.7
Minnesota is more beatable on the road. The Lions are due to win…been hosed their last two games. The Lions are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games. I don’t love it, but I like the Lions as a pick…subject to change on any under-the-radar injury news that breaks.
ARI at NYG (-3.0)
The Computer says: NYG by 0.4…Spread Differential 2.6
It’s hard to bet seriously on the Cardinals yet because the team is so erratic. They can look great on offense, and then settle for a bunch of field goals. Their defense is nonexistent and lets teams back into games all the time. What we don’t know is – what changes with Patrick Peterson playing. I like Arizona here, but I don’t love it. I’ll just take the points for a pick. If Saquon is out…then more confidence in Arizona because NYG has nothing behind him.
OAK at GB (-6.0)
The Computer says: GB by 4.7…Spread Differential 1.3
The Computer sees some upset potential with Oakland here. We’re in a holding pattern waiting to see if Tyrell Williams and OG Gabe Jackson will play…they would make a huge difference.
MIA at BUF (-17.0)
The Computer says: BUF by 16.3…Spread Differential 0.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. his old team…I do like Fitz to create some magic, as he does. At least enough to cover. Would never bet real money.
Let’s say Miami scores 7 points…do you trust Buffalo to get to 24 points in any game? Buffalo has hit 25 or more points once this season, four times the past 21 games/two seasons. Miami would be a team to do it against. I bet Miami scores 10-14…and then Buffalo getting 30+ would be rare.
*SURVIVOR PICK: BUFFALO* -- It's too easy a call. Thought about Jacksonville but I'll stick with the surest play I see...going against Miami, them on the road vs. a Buffalo team off a BYE week rest.
NO at CHI (-3.0)
The Computer says: CHI by 2.4…Spread Differential 0.5
This pick will change on the injury news…we don’t know if Trubisky or Kamara are playing, and those are huge factors. I’m guessing Trubisky ‘yes’ and Kamara ‘no’, but just speculation.