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Handicapping Week 8: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)

Date:
October 25, 2018

Handicapping Week 8: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)

A winning record Week 7 for me, but a lot of people did well Week 7. I’m still just wandering around .500 picking all things ATS – except for the actual bets, the big-ticket games of the week…in that. We’re white hot. I basically bet the season on KC last week along with a small taste on the Colts, and now I’m sitting on a huge comfortable cushion YTD.

I’m not as Computer confident in this week’s top games right down through all of them. I like KC this week, again, but I don’t see as many factors for a for-sure blowout like we saw vs. Cincy last week. This week, the best bet might be the Colts…ad you’ll see why when you read my picks below.

Contest Records ATS thru Week 7:

62-39-6 = Savage

55-46-6 = Katz

52-49-6 = Skol

55-46-6 = Rabbitt

48-53-6 = RC

*9-7-1 when group is in 5-0 agreement on a game

Blazing Five Through Week 7:

20-13-2 = Katz

20-12-3 = Savage

20-14-1 = Colin Cowherd

18-16-1 = Skolman

16-17-2 = RC

14-19-2 = Rabbitt

*10-5-0 when 3 or more in group agree on a B5…

====================

DEN at KC (-10.0)

The Computer Says: KC by 25.6 (15.6 point spread differential)

Denver’s claim to fame is crushing Arizona last week and slipping by Oakland and Seattle Weeks 1-2. They’re lucky not to be 1-6 at this point. Their other claim to fane is playing KC close a few weeks ago – but that was MNF at Denver, in the rain…and they still lost by 4. Now, they play at KC, with the Chiefs rolling and Denver still a bit of a poorly coached fraud. The Rams had no real issues with the Broncos a few weeks ago…a late TD closed the gap from 10 to 3-point win for LAR. KC is capable of blowing everyone out and Denver cannot hang with KC in a shootout.

IND (-3.0) at OAK

The Computer Says: IND by 16.3 (13.3 point spread differential)

You know The Computer loves Indy right now, has for weeks. They go to Oakland to play a beleaguered, internally crumbling team. Indy is already far superior…but the Raiders are making it worse with Jon Gruden sucking the life out of the team. The Colts should crush here.

IF Houston loses TNF…Indy is playing OAK to be one game out of first with a win. If HOU loses, I’m betting all-in on Indy (and the Indy line will jump to 3.5-4.0, I bet topo).

NYJ at CHI (-7.5)

The Computer Says: CHI by 14.3 (6.8 point spread differential)

The Bears should stop/crush the Jets under normal circumstances. It could be rainy and that’s about the only hope the Jets have to try to grind it out and keep it close.

WAS (P) at NYG

The Computer Says: WAS by 6.6 (6.6 point spread differential)

Under normal circumstances, we show this as a slight win for Washington but factor in the Giants collapsing as a team…trading a key D-Lineman this week and a starting corner, and more may go this week. The Giants are inferior as it is – but now are giving up on 2018, essentially. I’ll play the steady but unspectacular Redskins to salt this away.

If Quinton Dunbar can play this is money for Washington.

CLE at PIT (-8.0)

The Computer Says: PIT by 13.3 (5.3 point spread differential)

Everything about this game points to the Steelers, except Baker Mayfield can be a miracle worker…but even he cannot easily overcome a bad O-Line, terrible coaching, sloppy WRs, and home field for Pitt.

BAL (-2.0) at CAR

The Computer Says: BAL by 7.3 (5.3 point spread differential)

The Computer likes the road favorite, but I’d be nervous here. Carolina is a good team, at home, but this Ravens defense may be too much.

SF at ARI (P)

The Computer Says: ARI by 5.0 (5.0 point spread differential)

I like Arizona with the O-C switch creating some new enthusiasm and confusion for the opponents…the predictable Mike McCoy playbook is gone. This is a perfect spot for ARI to steal a win.

NE (-14.0) at BUF

The Computer Says: NE by 18.4 (4.4 point spread differential)

I don’t know how anyone could bet on the Bills, but 14 is a lot of points on a Monday Night game at Buffalo. The Pats should win by 20+ but if the weather is a tad messy and the Bills get a lucky turnover it could be a slog. If LeSean McCoy is out this could be really brutal for the Bills.

TB at CIN (-4.5)

The Computer Says: CIN by 0.8 (3.7 point spread differential)

The Computer is really starting to like the Bucs as a ‘good’ average team. It also believes the Bengals are wildly overrated. This could be a messy shootout and a backdoor cover by TB…but The Computer thinks there is a strong chance the Bucs win outright. Home field/cold weather for the Florida team leans the win to Cincy but not by enough to cover.

SEA at DET (-3.0)

The Computer Says: DET by 5.9 (2.9 point spread differential)

The Computer loves the Lions, but it also kinda likes Seattle (in general) too. I’d stay away from betting this one for real.

MIA at HOU (-7.5)

The Computer Says: HOU by 5.3 (2.2 point spread differential)

Houston has home field and momentum and faces Brock Osweiler…but Brock has been decent, and Miami has a good defense. 7.5 is a lot to give up for a pretty dicey Houston squad…one that is lucky to have won a game this year.  

PHI (-3.0) v. JAC *Europe

The Computer Says: PHI by 4.0 (1.0 point spread differential)

Must win for both teams, but the Eagles have a better pedigree to rally here and the Jags feel like they are about to fall apart at the seems. All Jacksonville has is ‘defense’ but even that’s getting exposed.

NO at MIN (P)

The Computer Says: NO by 0.7 (0.7 point spread differential)

This should be a clear Vikings win BUT their injury report is devastating. Xavier Rhodes being out is MASSIVE.

GB at LAR (-9.5)

The Computer Says: LAR by 10.1 (0.6 point spread differential)

I gotta believe the Rams will win this game but Green ay has Aaron Rodgers so 9.5 points is A LOT.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>