Handicapping Week 8 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)...
All games ATS:
56-49-1 (53.3%) = Katz (6-8 last wk)
55-50-1 (52.4%) = Rabbitt (7-7 last wk)
55-50-1 (52.4%) = RC (8-6 last wk)
54-51-1 (51.4%) = Skol (5-9 last wk)
48-57-1 (45.7%) = Savage (7-7 last wk)
Not a bad Week 7 (8-6 all picks ATS), but man did I think I was going 10+ wins this week. The 49ers missed the cover by 0.5 because of the swamp. I was 8-4 going into SNF and MNF games to go and felt good about getting at least one of them…but my picks were bad on each. Solid week, but coulda been better picking them all ATS.
I want my 10+ win week…and I want it now!!! I don’t love this week’s lineup/options as much as I did last week, but that ‘feeling’ rarely foretells anything.
Here we go…
Note – My spread projections/differentials…my system is built to look at the week in a bubble. The key injuries (which are somewhat unknown for some teams yet) factor in. Betting trends in general for what’s working on home/away, off a bye, etc., are factored in. It’s not a system that is trying to say X team is Y points better than Z team in general…it’s my computer model trying to tell me which teams have the best betting characteristics (that have been working prior) going into THIS PARTICULAR WEEK + the injuries + how the team has been playing recently, etc.
FYI: Here are The Computer’s Top 10 NFL teams based on my own ‘Power Rating’ (quality of current roster + various metrics on O-Line, defense, special teams, offensive output, coaching ratings, etc., plus quality of wins-losses).
1) New England
2) San Francisco
3) New Orleans
4) Green Bay
9) LA Rams
10) Pittsburgh (I know, caught me by surprise too…but, arguably, the best O-Line in the NFL right now)
SEA (-3.5) at ATL
The Computer says: SEA by 20.8…Spread Differential 17.3
This is assuming Matt Schaub and not Matt Ryan. If so, it’s one of the bigger spread differentials of our 2019. With Ryan, it’s Seattle by 15 +/-. Either way, it’s a great bet. One of the bets of the year if ATL without Matt Ryan. The Falcons took Sanu away, waiving the white flag on everything. Seattle will smell blood here. ATL will rollover per usual.
PHI at BUF (-1.5)
The Computer says: PHI by 14.5…Spread Differential 16.0
The Computer thinks that Buffalo cannot take advantage of the Philly secondary like other teams that have real QBs – Josh Allen is the perfect chance for Philly to look good against the pass. Add in the Eagles are getting hammered all week back at home, while Buffalo is inflated on their great record built on a house of cards foundation due to an easy schedule. We think the Bills get-got here by desperate, better Philly…which sends people hating the Bills after their several week love affair.
NYG at DET (-7.0)
The Computer says: NYG by 4.8…Spread Differential 11.8
The Computer thinks the Lions shouldn’t be a 7.0 favorite over any team. The Giants aren’t great but much better with Barkley-Engram back. They are getting punished for losing to Arizona…like losing to Arizona is some big crime. The Lions played the worst version of Arizona this season and should’ve lost and luckily tied.
DEN at IND (-5.5)
The Computer says: IND by 14.4…Spread Differential 8.4
This smells like a possible Denver upset, or it did to me when I first saw it…but The Computer loves how sound the Colts are in all phases and. With Denver signaling defeat…they may not have the juice to go to Indy and have a rebound game from their TNF embarrassment.
CAR at SF (-5.5)
The Computer says: CAR by 1.9…Spread Differential 7.4
Carolina is one of the underrated/low key top teams in the NFL right now. I’ll take +5.5 facing a banged-up O-Line SF.
CIN at LAR (-13.0)
The Computer says: LAR by 19.9…Spread Differential 6.9
This has to be a big win for the Rams. There is not one part of the roster/position groups where Cincy is better than the Rams. This could be very ugly.
*SURVIVOR PICK* Skipping the anti-Miami for a few reasons to be detailed in the upcoming Handicapping Chat transcripts. I don’t see a good/obvious Rams play the rest of the season in survivor, so I’ll take this gimme.
LAC at CHI (-3.5)
The Computer says: CHI by 10.0…Spread Differential 6.0
The Computer believes the Bears take out their frustrations and kinda ‘right’ the season (for the moment) by killing much worse than accredited LAC.
NYJ at JAX (-6.0) *Looks like Cam Robinson is playing.
The Computer says: JAX by 0.1…Spread Differential 5.9
The Computer likes the points here, especially with the Jets being shredded nationally by the talking heads because of the major crime that they looked bad against the Patriots last week. We love this defense upside with NYJ. It’s a real play if Cam Robinson is out for JAX.
GB (-3.5) at KC
The Computer says: GB by 9.7…Spread Differential 5.7
The Chiefs were a flimsy team with Patrick Mahomes…it’s a nightmare with Matt Moore. GB for the pure, outright road win.
TB at TEN (-2.5)
The Computer says: TB by 1.0…Spread Differential 3.5
The Computer likes the two weeks and bounce back game for TB with Tennessee off a lucky win vs. terrible LAC.
OAK at HOU (-6.5)
The Computer says: HOU by 3.2…Spread Differential 3.3
The Computer wants to take OAK plus the points, and it might switch this weekend based on the injury reports…but the injury outlook is so awful for Oakland right now we lean Houston, but this will swap to OAK on any good O-Line injury news for the Raiders.
MIA at PIT (-14.0)
The Computer says: PIT by 11.2…Spread Differential 2.8
By all accounts this should be a Steelers win. The Steelers have some nice metrics in our overall team performance analysis…and Miami has none. Pitt with two weeks off and at home on MNF should be fine to win, but I have my doubts on how convincing that will be. Ryan Fitzpatrick always scares me…as does an overconfident team, and an often poorly prepared head coach (Tomlin).
CLE at NE (-12.5)
The Computer says: NE by 11.1…Spread Differential 1.4
The Computer loves going against the big MNF or SNF winner from the prior week…especially when it was an event everyone is talking about. The line jumped 2+ more points after the game because everyone is so enamored with the Pats (for great reason). However, we’ve seen this as a possible threat for the Patriots to lose…at least for CLE to keep it close. The Browns have a great defensive front that could really show the Pats up, a la the Bills – and Browns have a better pass rush than the Bills. The Browns also have a better QB and WR talent. If the Browns can put it all together, with two weeks to prepare a unique plan – the Browns could shock everyone here. We like them to at least keep it close…but I thought the Jets could do that too…
ARI at NO (-10.5)
The Computer says: NO by 10.4…Spread Differential 0.1
It’s a lot of points to give up to a team that moves the ball/score in a hurry…even if just for backdoor cover purposes.
WAS at MIN (-15.5) *ALREADY LOST*
The Computer says: MIN by 15.6…Spread Differential 0.1
I think Minnesota is going to roll Washington in a Cousins revenge game, but The Computer thinks Keenum has some revenge factor and that Washington could hang in this game under the new head coach trying to slow the game down. Taking MIN with little conviction. Jason Katz is taking MIN, and he’s undefeated picking TNF games this year.