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Handicapping Week 9: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)

Date:
November 1, 2018

Handicapping Week 8: All Picks ATS (Featuring The Computer)

A nice 10-4 week on all games ATS last week, getting me up over .500 YTD. Blazing Five went 4-1 as we might be hitting a mid-season stride getting the proper feel for these teams now. If we can follow up with a big week here, I’ll believe The Computer is hitting its stride.

A lot of games we like this week, but none that we absolutely love. I see some of the strongest data with Washington and Seattle. If Quinton Dunbar is back for Washington…that’s definitely going to be our top play.

Contest Records ATS thru Week 8:

71-44-6 = Savage

63-52-6 = Rabbitt

61-54-6 = Katz

60-55-6 = Skol

58-57-6 = RC

*10-8-1 when group is in 5-0 agreement on a game

Blazing Five Through Week 8:

23-15-2 = Katz

23-14-3 = Savage

23-16-1 = Colin Cowherd

22-17-1 = Skolman

20-18-2 = RC

18-20-2 = Rabbitt

*12-5-0 when 3 or more in group agree on a B5…

KC (-8.5) at CLE

The Computer Says: KC by 18.1 (9.6 point spread differential)

Potentially not the safest bet…just because the new CLE regime will be a bit of a wild card, but we project they will be worse than the old regime – so, a KC blowout with a healthy Tyreek Hill is in order.

ATL at WAS (-1.5)

The Computer Says: WAS by 10.3 (8.8 point spread differential)

You get a bad ATL team playing outdoors in November – advantage Redskins. If a home team gets ‘3’ points for being home in line-setting…then is Vegas saying Atlanta is the better team here? You’ve gotta be kidding me. Atlanta was lucky to defeat the sad Giants and the Winston-led Bucs their past 2 games/wins. The Falcons are 0-2 on the road this year, about to become 0-3. If Quinton Dunbar is back, this is a best bet type game.

PIT at BAL (-3.0)

The Computer Says: BAL by 9.6 (6.6 point spread differential)

I’m surprised The Computer is so strong with the Ravens here, but on top of ‘important’ and ‘at home’ for the Ravens – the internal metrics are close between these two, but just general trending works for Baltimore…the Ravens are due to win and the Steelers are due to lose considering the last few weeks of play. The injury reports may soften this, but still to the Ravens but not as a top 5 pick.

TB at CAR (-6.5)

The Computer Says: CAR by 0.2 (6.3 point spread differential)

The Computer has respect for Tampa Bay, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick…it takes the points.

HOU at DEN (-1.0)

The Computer Says: DEN by 6.7 (5.7 point spread differential)

Bad Houston O-Line vs. high-pressure Denver...at Denver. This game is made for Denver to win.

OAK at SF (-2.5)

The Computer Says: OAK by 2.9 (5.4 point spread differential)

This would move into best bet territory if C.J. Beathard ruled out. May be Oakland’s game regardless.

LAC at SEA (-1.5)

The Computer Says: SEA by 6.6 (5.1 point spread differential)

I really love Seattle here this week, which is more emotional, looking at the data, which is probably the kiss of death.

CHI (-10.0) at BUF

The Computer Says: CHI by 14.1 (4.1 point spread differential)

This could sneak into a Blazing Five territory depending upon Khalil Mack and Tremaine Edmunds’ statuses, and if the weather holds up nice/favorable to the Bears’ offense.

NYJ at MIA (-3.0)

The Computer Says: NYJ by 0.7 (3.7 point spread differential)

Wow, The Computer says the Jets win this game outright, but m,ore a ‘toss up’. The key to this game is whether Trumaine Johnson is fully back. Osweiler v. Darnold with a bunch of WRs hurt on both sides. Yuck.

LAR at NO (-1.5)

The Computer Says: LAR by 2.1 (3.6 point spread differential)

The Rams are so due to lose, but they’re the better team.

DET at MIN (-4.5)

The Computer Says: MIN by 5.9 (1.4 point spread differential)

The Computer saw the rise/undervalued-ness in Detroit weeks ago…but now sees the trend line and internals fading on them. I wouldn’t bet this game.

GB at NE (-5.5)

The Computer Says: NE by 6.8 (1.3 point spread differential)

The Computer says Pats, but I have a feeling Green Bay wins -- but there are two truths this season…the Pats always seem to find a way to win, and the Packers are always finding ways to lose in tough spots. +5.5 to Aaron Rodgers is A LOT to lay.

TEN at DAL (-6.5)

The Computer Says: DAL by 7.4 (0.9 point spread differential)

I thought The Computer would like this more, but Tennessee has a nagging way of keeping games close.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>