Handicapping Week 9 with The Computer (and Survivor Pool Pick)...
All games ATS:
63-57-1 (52.5%) = Katz (7-8 last wk)
62-58-1 (51.7%) = Rabbitt (7-8 last wk)
62-58-1 (51.7%) = RC (7-8 last wk)
61-59-1 (50.8%) = Skol (7-8 last wk)
55-65-1 (45.8%) = Savage (7-8 last wk)
We all went 7-8 on all picks last week. I did better percentages in Blazing Five…3-2 week and pulling to within a game of Colin Cowherd (he went 1-4 last week) in B5 at the halfway point of the B5 season. I also hit my one and only true bet – jumped on the early -3.5 with Seattle playing that Matt Ryan would not play despite all the bluster that he would. Happy Week 8 overall but losing record all picks and a game out of the top spot. I don’t care if I’m sitting #1 in our group performance…I just hope all of us can get to 55%+ and learn from each other and all improve…and beat Colin in B5.
This is the most games in a week, this season, that we agreed/were close with our lines vs. Vegas’s lines…with the exception of two big standouts.
Note – My spread projections/differentials…my system is built to look at the week in a bubble. The key injuries (which are somewhat unknown for some teams yet) factor in. Betting trends in general for what’s working on home/away, off a bye, etc., are factored in. It’s not a system that is trying to say X team is Y points better than Z team in general…it’s my computer model trying to tell me which teams have the best betting characteristics (that have been working prior) going into THIS PARTICULAR WEEK + the injuries + how the team has been playing recently, etc.
FYI: Here are The Computer’s Top 12 NFL teams based on my own ‘Power Rating’ (quality of current roster + various metrics on O-Line, defense, special teams, offensive output, coaching ratings, etc., plus quality of wins-losses).
1) New England
2) San Francisco
3) New Orleans
4) Kansas City (Mahomes back quicker boosts them back into the top 10)
7) Green Bay
9) Pittsburgh (this still catches me by surprise too…but, arguably, the best O-Line in the NFL)
10) LA Rams
HOU (-1.5) at JAX
The Computer says: JAX by 16.1 Spread Differential 17.6
Everything about this favors Jacksonville…Houston is all banged up, the Jags have a better defense, and a better run game…and a better QB. Yeah, I said it. At London, we like the Jags here big.
TEN at CAR (-3.5)
The Computer says: CAR by 19.7…Spread Differential 16.2
I thought The Computer was broke at first when I saw the differential between these two teams, but everything favors Carolina here. Love this bet and the line is lowering as people go with Tennessee thrown off by Carolina’s dud vs. SF last week. Love the public overreacting to every little thing.
DET at OAK (-2.0)
The Computer says: OAK by 9.9…Spread Differential 7.9
The injury reports this weekend are going to change this, but not sure which direction. Oakland has a lot more at stake with injuries here…but aside from that, the data loves Oakland here.
NE (-3.0) at BAL
The Computer says: NE by 9.0…Spread Differential 6.0
I think the Patriots are running way overrated, but then so is Baltimore. A QB who is turnover prone going against Belichick…you have to side with Bill in these instances.
CLE (-3.5) at DEN
The Computer says: CLE by 9.3…Spread Differential 5.8
Do or die for the Browns here. Season fixed if the win, season over if they lose. No pressure. They gotta beat a debuting QB here. If they don’t…wow.
WAS at BUF (-9.5)
The Computer says: BUF by 15.2…Spread Differential 5.7
At this stage, we like Buffalo as it is but any hint of Dwayne Haskins in this game makes it even more sound to just to Buffalo.
GB (-3.5) at LAC
The Computer says: GB by 8.9…Spread Differential 5.4
Essentially a home game for Green Bay against a bad LAC unit.
CHI at PHI (-4.5)
The Computer says: CHI by 0.6…Spread Differential 5.1
The Bears are overdue for a big game…a defensive rout and some offensive movement through the air. This is the week, I think. The Eagles cannot defend the pass well…tailor-made for a Bears get-right for their offense.
MIN (-2.5) at KC
The Computer says: KC by 1.9…Spread Differential 4.4
We have a 50-50 chance Mahomes starts here, so adding that factor in we go with KC in the early decision (pre-Noon THU).
DAL (-7.0) at NYG
The Computer says: DAL by 10.6…Spread Differential 3.6
It’s a lot of points to give on the road on MNF, but the Giants are just so bad…
TB at SEA (-5.0)
The Computer says: SEA by 7.7…Spread Differential 2.7
Home field…Jameis the human turnover machine. You can’t confidently bet on TB because JW is such a negative factor in a football game too many times. However, TB is due and with JPP back they have a menacing D-Line/front all the sudden with him and Barrett and Nassib.
SF (-10) at ARI *LOSS*
The Computer says: SF by 12.2…Spread Differential 2.2
Arizona cannot hang with the 49ers…the Cardinals’ offense has shown nothing versus good defenses, and this is a great defense they face here. No David Johnson makes it 10x worse.
*SURVIVOR PICK – By default because I’ve used all the other reasonable options in prior weeks. I’m eyeing Indy over Miami next week.* **WIN**
NYJ (-3.0) at MIA
The Computer says: NYJ by 1.9…Spread Differential 1.1
My eyes tell me the Jets will win this game…watching their games all season. The data says Miami is just as good/bad and at home. But the growing factor we have to account for – the Jets trade deadline news/circus is potentially creating major chaos. I’d just stay away from this game.
IND (-1.0) at PIT
The Computer says: IND by 1.2…Spread Differential 0.2
I like PIT here if James Conner is inactive, and it will be a closer call if Conner is active.