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Quick Notes: Three Things From Each Sunday Game + 'Top Fives' (Week 10)

Date:
November 12, 2018

Quick Notes: Three Things From Each Sunday Game + 'Top Fives' (Week 10)

*Disclaimer – I watch all the games live Sunday, however many at one time, and these are my initial fantasy reactions/notes. I will then watch each game and detail and file a deeper report on each game, and may change my stance midweek on something I say below…but as a quick reaction to Sunday’s action, here’s my quick take…

Games in random order:

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Despite Patrick Mahomes being good-not-great, there was still plenty of winning going on around FFM-land. Trubisky-Cooks-Tyreek-DJ-McCaffrey types all pulled their weight and are keeping us on a roll across the FFM universe by and large.

We’ve all, in general, been on a couple of week roll…as BYE weeks hit, as we ‘sell high’, ‘buy low’, and win waivers week-after-week – we’re winning even when we get a dud performance from a key player. It’s been a nice, healthy roll we all have worked hard to get to.

Most FFM-based teams, by my early tracking/sampling of people, are going to be 7-3 after this week…with 8-2/6-4 next most likely followed by 5-5. Rare are the losing record teams now…and most of them are reporting (a) still in the playoff race, and (b) top 1-2-3 scorer YTD with #1-2 worst schedule – that is hard to overcome, BUT if you’re scoring well and still a game or two out…you have the firepower to win 2-3-4 in-a-row and change the direction of the season – it happened just like that all last season by holding steady to the end. Don’t give up or start flailing yet. Don’t punish your high scoring team for a bad schedule by trying to radically change lineups, etc. Stick with what’s working.

Last year, at this time, the likely record was 6-5/5-5/4-6…a season where injuries got many off to a 1-3/2-5 start but then we hard charged midseason, per usual. This year, we’re not playing a survival week at a time as much…now, thoughts are turning towards Weeks 14-15-16. So, you’ll see me mentioning that more in recaps again this week.

Congrats on another good week, overall/in general. We gotta keep chopping wood…and we gotta get ready for Week 12 KC-LAR bye week hell.

BUF-NYJ

-- Another week where a junk QB is forced into starting and the opposing defense plays like they have never played football before – Nick Mullens vs. OAK and now Matt Barkley vs. NYJ. A common denominator…losing football teams with terrible coaching staffs whose players quit on them. All that to say – the Jets-DST vs. BUF in a few weeks…forget it. Can’t be trusted.

-- As the Jets sink, I suspect Elijah McGuire (6-30-0, 3-27-0/6) will be get a push into a more primary role…10+ carries and 5+ targets a game. He’s got RB2 hopes ahead.

-- Josh McCown couldn’t get Quincy Enunwa (4-18-0/8) the ball very well, and Sam Darnold hasn’t been able to since the first few weeks. Unless Davis Webb is starting, I’m not entertaining Enunwa the rest of 2018.

ARI-KC

-- THERE’S my old David Johnson (21-98-1, 7-85-1/9)!!! Well, sorta. He finally got the pass targets he should and there were some actual holes for him in the running game. Positive signs ahead. The schedule ahead is good too…Oakland next week. We’re back to consistent RB1 DJ ahead, I think…I hope!!!

-- This passing game really looked pathetic. Josh Rosen looks promising but there’s nothing happening to free up WRs. You want to quit it all…BUT…Week 11 vs. Oakland is a possible winner because the Raiders have no pass rush pressure at all. Kirk-Fitzgerald WR3 considerations Week 11.

-- Sammy Watkins out…and Demarcus Robinson (3-30-0/4) saw more action than Chris Conley (1-22-0/3), as I suspected. But…nothing to get excited about. Tyreek Hill did damage quick and the Chiefs passing game kinda went vanilla and succumbed, a bit, to some pressure by the Cardinals pass rush. It was a good job by the Arizona defense after the first series.

ATL-CLE

-- Boy, the Browns offense looks 1,000% better under the lunatic fringe, Gregg Williams. This was another step forward for Baker Mayfield (17-20 for 216 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT). I know it was vs. ATL, it’s not that – you can see the pieces falling into place. He’s an amazing QB talent.

-- Mayfield’s favorite WR? I have no idea. I think ‘none’…actually, I think ‘whomever is open’. Jarvis Landry (2-22-0/5) has 2 TDs this season (10 games) and has hit over 50 yards in a game with Mayfield starting just twice in 7 starts…and no 100+ yard games.

-- It may just be a blip, as it seems to be with many TEs…but Austin Hooper (10-56-1/11) is flashing Zach Ertz-like activity…like before Ertz became ‘Ertz’. Hooper has 9 or more catches in a game in three of his last 5 games. Not a lot of yards, because he’s a load/not an athlete…but 2 TDs in his last 4 games. In the era of TE desperation – I’d make a play for him from someone who thinks he’s just ‘lucky’. He’s crossed over from ‘that’s a blip’ to TE1 PPR in a hurry.

JAX-IND

-- Leonard Fournette (24-53-1, 5-56-1/5) looked fine and his debut and definitely didn’t have any restrictions. He did have a David Johnson 2018 type game here – nowhere to run and got lucky that there was a goal line TD to take. Had a nice screen pass TD as well. He’s a RB2 week-to-week. I won’t commit to him as an RB1 on this offense/O-Line. Let’s call him an RB1.5 at best.

-- Marlon Mack (12-29-0, 2-9-0/2) just lost big value in a week…as I feared. Hot as a firecracker last two weeks…desired big-time by the masses. That’s why he was a top ‘sell high’ for us last week, not to dump but just see if you could flip him huge. Now, he falls to not-as-desired and an RB2 valuation. His lack of work in the pass game really frustrates me for PPR -12 catches a game every week.

-- Andrew Luck (21-29 for 285 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) now has 3 or more TD passes in a game in six straight games. He’s strong in the MVP race and keeps Indy’s division title hopes alive (a race we think they will win). You face Luck in fantasy…it’s almost like facing Mahomes.

DET-CHI

-- By far, by far…the best Allen Robinson (6-133-2/8) has looked all season. Not just gawking at the stat line, that part is obvious – it’s how spry and confident ARob looked. He’s been tentative and ineffective all season, and then hurt/missing games, and in his first game back in weeks – a whole new WR.

-- Like I said…Tarik Cohen (7-15-1, 6-29-0/7) is the centerpiece of the Bears’ offense. 2nd-most targets (7) of any Bear in this game, and the most total touches (13). He’s an every Week RB1 in PPR. The prior two games of one catch each was just the Bears toying with inferior opponents.

-- Kenny Golladay (6-78-1/13) finally got treated like he should be every week – a ton of throws, a ton of 50-50 balls and let him got get it with his legit 6’4”+ height. I’ll be interested to see if this sustains or was a one-time event in a quick blowout game.

NE-TEN

-- Marcus Mariota (16-24 for 228 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is starting to come back to life…2.0 TDs/0.0 INTs the past two weeks along with 26.5 yards rushing per game with a meager 234.0 passing yards per game. @IND-@HOU-NYJ ahead.

-- Tom Brady (21-41 for 254 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is going the other way…he’s slow declining in front of all our eyes. 0 or 1 TD passes in four of his last 5 games. He’s not dead…but the elite days are over. You probably are NOT running through the fantasy playoffs with him leading the way – he cannot hang with Mahomes, Luck, Goff, etc.

-- Part of Brady’s issues are the WRs…Josh Gordon (4-81-0/12) just does not do it for me. I don’t see anything worth getting that excited about week in and week out.

WSH-TB

-- All the O-Line issues…and Adrian Peterson (19-68-0, 2-1-0/2) was bottled up for a fantasy dud – a lot more ahead where that came from with this O-Line.

-- Ryan Fitzpatrick (29-41 for 401 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) threw for 400+ again…but no TDs and the team managed just 3 points. How? Fitz has 400 or more passing yards in four of his 6 starts this season.

-- Hot WRs last week…FF-died this week: Mo Harris (5-52-0/5), who is terrible…was an FF-dud. Adam Humphries (2-53-0/3)…went back to being Adam Humphries/Cole Beasley.  

NO-CIN

-- With Ginn-Meredith-Dez all going down in recent weeks, the Saints activated rookie UDFA WR Keith Kirkwood (2-45-0/2). He’s not bad. 6’2”+/221 and ran a 4.45 40-time with a 6.94 three-cone at his Temple Pro Day. 45 catches, 671 yards, 7 TDs in 12 games in 2017 for a bad pass-game team in college his senior year.

-- I turned away from this game when it got so far out of hand…I’m looking forward to seeing how Dwayne Washington (11-47-0) with his mop-up time work. One note on him for the super-deep roster people…the Saints could turn to him as a WR if they lose one more WR – turning to the former college WR-turned-RB.

-- Cincy’s defense is a disaster right now…allowing 45-34-51 their last three games. Next week, this is probably Lamar Jackson’s debut matchup (and then OAK after that!).

LAC-OAK

-- It’s a terrible offense/team, but when I watch Oakland the last 2-3 games with Doug Martin (15-61-0, 3-31-0/3), I see him playing his butt off. He’s going to keep getting work…but it’s going to be mostly RB3 work in this corrupt offense.

-- Jatavis Brown (11 tackles) is about to happen again for IDP. I think Denzel Perryman might be out for weeks/rest of the season. When Jatavis gets to play all the time – he’s a top 10 LB for IDP. They almost have no choice now but to play him every snap.

-- Brandon LaFell (4-47-0/6), new Raiders #1 WR, is averaging 3.3 rec. (4.3 targets), 36.0 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game in his new ‘starring’ role.

MIA-GB

-- If there is a ‘star’ TE playing worse/less looked to/a ghost more than Jimmy Graham (1-14-0/1) then their name is probably Rob Gronkowski. Graham and Gronk seem to be pretty much over. I have hope for a healed Gronk, but Graham is just…he’s nearly cut-able in 10-12 team redrafts with two better/pretender TEs you’re working with.

-- Leonte Carroo (1-14-0, 1-20-0/1)…memba him? Former 3rd-round pick WR…failed…cut…brought back now as a TE. He blocked a punt. He took a fake punt for a 1st-down. He ran the ball and also caught a pass. He was an MVP, of sorts, in this game for Miami. Busted his butt and had the coaches excited. If your fantasy league has changed his to ‘TE’…something to watch super deep-sleeper-wise as a ‘move’/athletic TE.

-- Kenyan Drake (8-27-0, 2-11-0/2) is drifting off to RB3-land…because they just can’t get him the ball. They have a nice play set up to him/for him in the passing game and then forget about him for series at a time. He’s an RB2.0-2.5 in PPR.

SEA-LAR

-- My biggest fear for Mike Davis (11-58-0, 4-22-1/6) came true…Rashaad Penny (12-108-1) ‘happened’. Glad for Penny, he deserves it. Sorry for Davis. But now we’ve got a real cluster if Chris Carson comes back. I think Carson’s value/usage is in big trouble…much less all his injuries.

-- Cooper Kupp (5-39-0/8) likely has an ACL tear and his season probably over. I don’t love this for Cooks-Woods…those guys all work better as a trio. Now, more coverage on Cooks-Woods and Josh Reynolds will be getting a nice WR3 opportunity with WR2 weeks off TDs. Reynolds is a talent…now, he can prove it.

-- We have jinxed David Moore (1-16-0/3) into obscurity, but he was just a ‘hold and see’ option in redraft. We saw…he fell (for now). You can leave if you need to. Dynasty owners…try to stay patient. There could be bigger things ahead/2019+…and in 2018.

DAL-PHI

-- And therein lies the Josh Adams (7-47-0) problem – the best RB on the Eagles was in a three-way split for snaps/touches with Smallwood-Clement again. Hard to breakout for FF while leading the team in carries…with 7. However, he’s so good, I’m trying to hold to see another week or two to see if Doug Pederson gives into Adams as 15+ carries considering the Eagles are failing at their normal RBBC plan.

FYI, high college YPC Josh Adams, supposedly made by the Notre Dame O-Line – he’s averaging 5.7 YPC in his 2018 touches, so far.

-- I told you Golden Tate (2-19-0/4) doesn’t really work on the Eagles, for fantasy. This low game will be pushed in the media as ‘just getting used to things’. Duh, that’s why he’s an FF-issue and also because he doesn’t fit this offense. Tate will be on 10-12 team redraft waivers in 2-3 weeks, you watch.

-- Leighton Vander Esch (13 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) became the new Sean Lee-like LB for Dallas in this game…like he broke through to become what Jaylon Smith (4 tackles) could not for 2+ years. I was a little skeptical LVE could be a tackle-monster in the NFL…even though he had nice computer scouting model grades for us on CFM, but I saw what you saw last night. Actually, I saw it weeks ago when Lee was out. LVE is a top 10 LB for IPD while Lee is out.

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Top 5 ‘Buy Low’

1) Travis Kelce, KC – I know…he’s unobtainable. I’m just putting it out there, after he had a ‘meh’ Week 10 and has a BYE coming in Week 12. Over the past two weeks I’ve seen many FFM’ers with the Mahomes-Tyreek (MYreek) combo able to trade for Kelce (or Ertz) in deal because they wanted to pair Kelce with MYreek to make a juggernaut piling onto the KC offense.

The deal is usually – coveted RB name of your + replacement TE name the other team is willing to ‘buy’ for Kelce (and sometimes something small to with it in return). Like, last week, a Marlon Mack in the deal with Gronk-Njoku-Graham…because you already had 3+ RBs you felt good about aside from Mack.

I mention all this because I see Kelce deals happening, and it happens, to some degree, because people always undervalue tight ends and LUST for more RBs. They cannot get enough RBs. If it were up to them they’d have 10 RBs on their roster – in their quest to solve manufactured ‘RB problems’. You think I’m kidding…I see it all the time, and specifically on this type of deal.

2) T.Y. Hilton, IND – Andrew Luck is on fire, but T.Y. Hilton has been hit & miss…plus he missed some time with a hamstring. He’s not even in the top 20 WR scorers in PPR (he’s #25 PPR PPG). He’s faced Jalen Ramsey and Tre’Davious White in recent weeks, holding his scoring down a bit…and was hampered/out for weeks prior.

Luck is one of the best QBs in fantasy/NFL right now, and TYH is ‘his guy’. When the schedule opens up a bit…Hilton may go wild. Try to buy him as a WR2. You don’t want to pay fair money…you want to try to catch someone napping. AND DON’T ask for him by name direct or the current owner instantly gets afraid and doubles his value.

3) O.J. Howard, TB – One catch Week 10…a good to time to slice in on people’s fears. OJH is a step below Kelce-Ertz but highly valuable in a TE group that is dying outside of Kelce-Ertz.  

4) Robert Woods, LAR – Been doing well of late, but not ‘wow’. No TDs his last five games. People don’t trust him. When Kupp is out, Woods tends to see more action…the de-facto #1 for Goff. Sometimes people let him go surprisingly low mixed into 2-for-2 type deals.

5) Austin Hooper, ATL – He’s hot of late…big game Week 10, but that follows two duds Weeks 8-9. But the duds followed two back-to-back games with 9 catches. 9-9-3-3-10 for catches the past five games. Hopper is seen as more of a random usage guy, not a consistent star TE.

He might very well be ‘random’ or ‘a blip’, but I’m just noting that he’s often undervalued/has no emotional attachment with owners and can be discussed/mixed into deals easier than expected.

Why do you want him? If your ‘name’ TEs all randomly suck (Gronk, Graham, Njoku, Engram), Hooper is another name that may do the same/suck…but you have to take 9 or more catches in three of his last 5 games very seriously. It was the Zach Ertz pattern of erratic shock games before he got consistently great in the past. I don’t know that Hooper can be great, but I’m TE desperate in spots and this Hooper run is not just ‘good’ it’s ‘awesome’. It may be a sign right in front of our faces…or certain death.

He had a great Week 10, so don’t come after him by name…back into him.  

Top 5 ‘Sell High’

1) Christian McCaffrey, CAR – I’m not suggesting McCaffrey is not an RB1. He’s really good. Sweet PPR guy. But, suddenly, he has 7 TDs in his last 3 games…after 8 TDs his entire career prior. If you think the TD spike is an aberration, and I do, I look to sell super-HIGH.

I mean super-duper-HIGH. I mean trying to flip into the megastar RBs or WR or QB or whatever you’re looking for. He is white hot, and everybody loves him…I think he’s worth exploring in a mega deal because I don’t think the TD run keeps up.

2) Leonard Fournette, JAX – Two TDs…HE’S BAAACK!!! It ignores the 24 carries for 53 yards (2.2 ypc)…the David Johnson/2018 problem – terrible O-Line, offense, game plan. It’s going to be hard for Fournette to keep scoring TDs here. If you agree, now is the time to sell hot as an RB1…not as a ‘dump him’ RB2. Keep as an RB2.

3) Aaron Rodgers, GB – When Mike McCarthy thinks he has a running game…he falls in love with it. He wishes Aaron Rodgers never existed, so he could run the ball more. Rodgers’ numbers have been down all season, partly because his WRs are failing him, partly because Mike McCarthy. With Aaron Jones getting hot…Rodgers will get fewer throws/yards, etc.

He has just two 300+ yard games this season.

Aaron Rodgers is still great but he’s not performing for fantasy like the top guys. Neither is Tom Brady. The rise of new era QBs is leaving them behind to a degree.

4) Sony Michel, NE – Like I said last week…I fear Cordarrelle Patterson takes a few touches each game, and now Rex Burkhead is looming. Plus, Michel is not that great. The masses LOVE him. He will trade like an RB1.5 for some.  

5) Adrian Peterson, WSH – Again, people are RB loco. When they see Peterson’s carry count they drool. Hopefully, they don’t fully consider how devastated his O-Line is.

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Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’

1a) Baker Mayfield, CLE – I can and can’t believe he is still less than 50% owned in leagues (mostly in redrafts). The guy is a truly great QB…and, suddenly, the coaching change has this whole offense looking exponentially better. A bye week this week to change the offense more…and then Week 12 against the worst defense in the NFL (my opinion) – Cincinnati? In a 6pts per pass TD with bonuses/favorable QB scoring leagues – Mayfield is a legit QB2 in case something happens to your #1 QB.

…and we just moved a step closer to Mahomes and Goff playing time concerns in Week 16 or 17.

1b) Lamar Jackson, BAL – In 4pts per pass TD QB scoring, no bonuses, then it’s Lamar Jackson you want. With his running skills, he’s instantly a top 5 fantasy QB in 4pts per pass TD formats – plus, his schedule is a gift from God. We were talking about this pickup last week before the Flacco hip news hit…and then chasing it hard after the news hit…so, you should have been a step ahead. This week, everyone’s coming after him if/when the Flacco news is official.

3) Justin Tucker, BAL – The best pure kicker of our lifetime…a top 3-5 fantasy kicker most every year. If you play in a league with kicker scoring rising for distance of kick…this is your guy. Some ditched him off his BYE last week because ‘who cares about kickers?’…as they pursue a 19th RB to try to solve manufactured RB fears they live with every day.

‍4) Josh Reynolds, LAR – This is a tricky one. The last time we all saw him he was scoring 2 TDs in place of Cooper Kupp – that’s the guy we remember. We forget he didn’t do anything for weeks in place of Kupp prior. I’m pro-Reynolds, I’m just saying this is not a slam dunk, plug & play he gets Kupp’s numbers automatically story. BUT, the #3 WR on the best offense in football getting the least coverage attention – I’m in.  

5) Keke Coutee, HOU – Coutee was impressive on touches when first hit the scene…then he got banged up and his numbers dropped, and then he was out for Weeks 8-9. He comes back with Demaryius Thomas on the team, and we’re not sure how that fits for Coutee…honestly, we don’t know what’s going to happen with Coutee. He had two splash weeks then a dud, then hurt, then Fuller in and then Fuller out, then Demaryius in. We don’t know ‘new normal’ Coutee…but there were flashes of something interesting, so we’re sucked in to see if ‘real’. We don’t know if he’s healthy yet. We don’t know a lot of things…but with guys like Gabriel-Cobb dying off, we need to explore new WR blood.

6) WR Donte Moncrief, JAX – Don’t trust JAX WRs if you don’t have to. But…if you’re in need…

If you ignore his zero catches on 3 targets game Week 6, then Moncrief has had 75+ yards in a game in four of 5 games since Week 4. Ignore the no-catch game, in his last 5 games: 5.0 rec., 82.6 yards, 0.20 TDs per game.

I’m not a fan of him or this passing game, but he’s putting up better numbers of late than Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Tre’Quan Smith or whatever hot rookies’ people are chasing. By noticing it this week…he will have 1 catch for 11 yards next week as your flex.

7) John Ross, CIN – Still a ‘random WR3’ guy, but at least with Ross you might get the lightning strike 50+ yard TD. You’re not getting that with Randall Cobb or Willie Snead.  

8) Matt Bryant, ATL – Just a note…if you have an empty I.R. spot, you could put Bryant there and have a top kicker down the stretch when he gets cleared. It should be any week now.

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**Trust or Distrust Conundrum?**

Rashaad Penny, SEA – I’m a fan of Penny. I thought he was ‘good’ coming out of college, but what I’ve seen in the pros has me on the ‘very good’ train. You might have seen what I was talking about Week 10…he’s better than Chris Carson, as I’ve been saying since Week 1. He ran for 100+ yards this week and he’s a rookie, so he’ll be enshrined into the Hall of Fame this week by analysts and the masses.

However, Chris Carson still exists and is Pete Carroll’s love child. Mike Davis exists and he pretty good as well, and seemingly the PPR guy. To ‘buy’ Penny, you have to buy that Carson isn’t coming back…or Penny defeats him upon return (not likely in Carroll’s heart)…and you have to share with Mike Davis if Carson isn’t back.

I think Carson comes back and makes this a full-scale FF-mess. If Penny has a 13 carry, 41 yards, no TDs, no target game Week 11…his value implodes. The Penny value is to grab and trade to Carson or Davis owner (in redraft) and cash in on the rookie derangement.

On the other hand, if Carson goes on I.R. – Penny will be good to have. So, I ‘trust’ and ‘distrust’ Penny…all related to Carson.

Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’

1) Maurice Harris, WAS – Harris has three issues: (1) Alex Smith. (2) Harris is one of the slowest WRs in the NFL, he’s like a TE playing WR. (3) Matthew Berry, being a Redskins fan, tends to push the public on Washington things because he watches them close. Which was why he was high on Alex Smith and Jamison Crowder, etc. No crime in that, I’m just noting Harris is getting a little extra pub. I could make the case Zay Jones is good based on the same evidence Harris is being pushed…but no one cares about Zay, but they might if he were on the Redskins. Did you see Zay’s line Week 10? And Zay is a great talent too.

3) Danny Amendola, MIA – You might have to go here if Week 11 byes cut you to the bone, in PPR, but this is like Randall Cobb South…5 +/- catches in a game and lower yards with rare TDs. He’ll get you 5 for 50 and no TD all day long, but who really wants that (unless you had Taylor Gabriel in your lineup last week)?

4) Tyler Higbee, LAR – His targets are perking up in games from 1-2 targets to 3-4 that last two games but he’s still just a forgotten bit player on this offense. Kupp out doesn’t raise Higbee. You’d think the starting TE on the best offense in the NFL would matter…he doesn’t.

5) Blake Bortles, JAX – I see Bortles being pushed as Week 11 or 12 BYE week relief for some because they face PIT and BUF. First, Bortles is an abomination. Second, PIT and BUF are tough defenses. ATL and CIN are bad defenses…he’s not facing them, he’s facing PIT and BUF. No, thanks…ever…to Bortles. Mayfield is way better for Week 12 bye weeks or salvation hope if you lose your #1 QB for the season.

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Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’

1) Jaylen Samuels, PIT – I was hoping this would be less stressful a pickup this week. He’s the James Conner handcuff for those in need. However, now there is Conner’s concussion he’s dealing with. AN outside chance Samuels matters this week! He’s more talented, just less experienced than Conner…so, if he gets a chance…could be trouble for Conner (in the sense of a little more split/share).

2) Zach Zenner, DET – Kerryon Johnson is dealing with a foot injury (playing through it). As Detroit utterly collapses, and if KJ goes down…no sense in getting a free agent RB – just let Zenner have a chance in a lost season (there’s no reason for pushing Blount when the season is gone). And if Zenner ever gets a chance, he’ll do as well as the last time he got chances.

3) Mark Andrews, BAL -- 5 and 6 targets his last two games. 3.5 rec. (5.5 targets), 40.5 yards, 0.00 TDs per game the past two games. A TD in Week 7 and Week 2. I thought Hayden Hurst was ready to make a move, but Andrews played as many snaps and saw a 6-2 target count win. Andrews is a ‘receiver’ threat at TE, not an all-around TE…but we want ‘receiving’ in fantasy. The Ravens should be scoring a lot ahead with their schedule.

4) Jonnu Smith, TEN – He’s gone from nothing to scoring a TD in each of his last two games – and he looks darn good. Gaining confidence. He’s a solid talent starting to perk up a bit.

‍5) Brandon Powell, DET – He finally made his debut Week 10. He’s the Golden Tate replacement, but not sure he’ll matter this season. But, maybe…

Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them’ Players:

1) Taylor Gabriel, CHI – You broke me, I give up. Actually, Allen Robinson broke me. I was hedging my bets that ARob wasn’t going to get back to his past form in 2018, still getting ‘right’ from his knee injury in 2017 (but we started hedging on ARob last week as a deep sleeper for ‘getting right’ after some time off…so, boom) – but he looked like a new man this week. That’s a little FF-trouble for Gabriel. A so-so ARob meant Gabriel was in position to be a top target on a high scoring team…but with ARob starting to happen -- Gabriel has now joined the ‘random WR3 club’ week-to-week.

After an egg Week 10…you’d bail even if said, “No, keep Gabriel.” But I freely release you to find greener pastures…but we might be talking about him again as ‘back on’ down the road. For now, it’s too painful to hold him in a 10-12 team redraft.  

2) Randall Cobb, GB – Between the hamstring and the sagging Packers offense, I’m done thinking Cobb can at least be a stable flex in PPR because he’s ‘with’ Aaron Rodgers. We got a million other guys to take chances on.

3) Chris Thompson, WAS – I’m not sure when he’s back…I suspect he’s out another week or two. You’d like to have him upon his return but if you can’t afford for him to be out longer…you can drop. The offense has changed and I’m not sure he’s much more than Jalen Richard is.  

4) Kenneth Dixon, BAL – May never play in the NFL again. Possibly facing another suspension. The Ravens will likely move on from him soon. Ty Montgomery has more chance to impact for the Ravens…and that’s a long shot too.

‍‍‍‍5) Chris Conley, KC – Like I said…Robinson was more interesting than Conley off the Watkins injury (or if Tyreek goes down). Some of you took a look this week…and, ummm…no. It’s not his role to be a heavy target guy.

Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe) to Consider:

‍1) Chiefs-DST – Not likely on waivers now, but…

They had two Pro Bowl level defenders return Week 10 (Houston and Sorensen) with Eric Berry still due back – this defense has been getting better every week. Tyreek Hill returning punts is a nice bonus. The offense whacking opponents allows the KC D to tee off on sacks and INTs. With the exception of Weeks 11-12 (LAR-BYE), I can get behind using them in the sea of despair DSTs have become.

@OAK-BAL-LAC-@SEA is really pretty solid for Weeks 13-16.

If you have MYreek and Rams’ guys…be careful as you would also need a DST in their place Week 12 if you play with KC. You need a lot of players Week 12…

2) Steelers-DST – Playing great of late and JAC-DEN-LAC-OAK Weeks 11-14 looks better and better. The good games ahead are on the road…one of them (OAK) before the NE week is a distraction concern.

Weeks 15-16 NE-NO is no good.

3) Titans-DST – NYJ, JAX, @NYG, WAS Weeks 13-16 is a real nice stretch during the FF playoffs – three home games among them.

4) Texans-DST -- WAS-TEN-CLE-IND-NYJ through Week 15. The defense is nothing that special, but the schedule is not bad.

5) Colts-DST – The stats are decent, but the performance is erratic. The schedule remains great, but they’ve become just another dart throw. They’ve been better at home.

Upcoming:  TEN, MIA, @JAC, @HOU, DAL, NYG. Might could use them from Week 11 on…or not?

6) Seahawks-DST – For down the road…SF Week 13, and at SF Week 15. Match them up with another for Weeks 14 and 16 for the playoff run. DEN, NE, WAS, KC, IND are options to pair with.

7) Patriots-DST – Beautiful every other week after Week 11. Week 12 vs. NYJ. Weeks 13-14, MIN-MIA. Weeks 15-16, PIT, BUF. One to pair with like an Indy-DST to take advantage of the NYJ, MIA, and BUF matchups.

8) Jags-DST – If anyone dumps out this defense out of frustration, and you’re looking ahead to the playoffs…@TEN-WAS-@MIA Weeks 14-16, if they are still in the race. Plus, maybe they flip a switch ahead? They do not look good right now, but they’ve been missing A.J. Bouye of late…he should return soon.

9) Eagles-DST – The Computer is telling me the Philly D is starting to turn ‘good’. @NO-NYG-WAS-@DAL the next four weeks has three solid matchups after NO/Weeks 12-14.

10) Broncos-DST – Playoffs option…Weeks 14-16 = at SF, CLE, at OAK. Not bad at all. Might be out of the race and quitting by then is the problem.

11) Redskins-DST –If Quinton Dunbar is healthy and Washington is hanging around the division title hopes…consider for Week’s 14-16 (NYG-JAX-TEN)

Don’t like for schedule or other reasons on these DSTs making noise/news/lists: BUF, CLE, NO, NYJ, DAL


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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