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Quick Notes: Three Things From Each Sunday Game + ‘Top Fives’ (Week 15)

Date:
December 17, 2018

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Well, 40-50% of you reading this who had an FF-playoff game this week…you lost or are projected to lose based upon the MNF event tonight. There are still things to settle with the MNF game (for FFM’ers, a lot riding on Samuel, Ian Thomas, CMC), but if expected scoring holds (and it never does) – this could/will be a losing week, by percentage, across the FFM-universe. Last week, was not great and then this week was worse. A smoking hot 12-13 weeks…all up in smoke over the past two weeks.

Many reading this have a lot of KC and LAR players in our starting lineup, and our fantasy season kinda followed their seasons (to-date) – dominating the league all year, the stories of the season, the epic MNF Super Bowl preview showdown Week 11…which over-delivered on the joy -- the greatest night/week in FFM in history for winning percentages.

…and then we started to die right after that, like the two teams for real (KC and LAR).

KC and L.A. had a Week 12 BYE, and many of us lost in fantasy because of it…but we were in pretty good shape on the season overall regardless. Week 13 was decent for FF, as KC struggled with (of all teams) Oakland and Goff/the Rams stumbled by the Lions. Week 14, Mahomes sneaks by the Ravens in OT. Goff is crushed in Chicago, we lose a hurtful chunk of our playoff games. Week 15/this week, KC loses to LAC…the Rams flop to Philly…we get hit hard by the Tyreek, Goff performances (among other events). The dominance through 11 weeks…long forgotten for KC and the Rams, and our FF squads.

Some are still alive, despite the Tyreek-Goff, etc., because this is a worldwide fantasy football plague that has hit…everything that rolled for 11-12-13 weeks has been flipped upside down the past two weeks. Derrick Henry and Mike Williams have been fantasy death to own for almost two seasons – now, they’re single-handedly carrying wild card teams to a title.

Quick…name the QBs who threw for three TDs in Week 15/this week. I’ll answer who in a moment…just quick write the names down you think.

I’m not exactly sure what has happened the past two weeks, but it is something that is not central to one team…it’s all of them, all at the same time, in general. It kinda started with that Week 13 TNF Saints-Cowboys game of grand defense/awful FF performances (because of it). Indy got shutout that week. And then ‘the norm’ in the NFL got unraveled in Weeks 13-14-15. I watch it all…and I can’t explain it…yet. I just know something has happened because all the normal performances from ‘top guys’ have started falling off a cliff.

What QBs threw for 3 TDs this week? Answer…none. 12 games on Sunday, 24 QB efforts, and 42% (rounding) of the QBs had ZERO TD passes in the game. 38% had ONE TD pass…or combined 80% of the Sunday QBs had either 0 or 1 TD pass. What happened to the golden age of offensive football? 21% of QBs had two TD passes on Sunday.

You know how many 300+ yard games were dealt by QBs on Saturday or Sunday? Just one…by the terrible/awful Jared Goff (339 yards). 28 QBs started this weekend…one threw for 300+ yards. Earlier in the season 40-50% of starting QBs were going for 300+ in a week. Something has changed…I don’t know what.

When the high flying QBs all died the past two weeks, it allowed a dominant RB or WR performance to change the course of fantasy events on us…and the QBs with 270-290+ yards passing and 1-2 TDs in games used to be a mediocre or ‘bad start’, now, this week, they were QB MVPs.

How many QBs had 270+ passing yards with 2 TDs yesterday?

ZERO.

270 yards and 2 TDs was like a ‘bad’ game for Mahomes all season…this week it would have been best in class for any QB on Sunday. Rivers (Thu) and Watson (Sat) are the only QBs to surpass those marks all Week 15.

I’m not sure we’ll figure out what has happened that flipped a switch the past 2-3 weeks…and maybe it was a blip that will never be figure out.

Perhaps, Curtis Samuel and/or Ian Thomas will have a shocking game and save a few more seasons. Fingers crossed. I can only hope that because our QBs sucked, but so did most of everyone else’s.

If you’ve already locked in a loss, season over…there are no words to console. Most of the best teams I’ve constructed for private clients, league-high scoring, BYEs earned, etc. – they got violently smote on Sunday/this week. It seems like such an unsatisfying or undeserved death. The heretofore great season over so quickly and with such sad performances.

All I can say is… I know you’re going have a terrible day today (those that already locked a loss). Money was already in your pocket. Now, it feels like it was stolen. We’re all searching for answers/the license plate of the bus that ran us over. Weaker teams in the league are mocking us…they’ve toppled the regular season king. It sucks.

However, rare is the person in fantasy that gets to be the king that is toppled. You can’t be a toppled, mocked king…unless you were a king. All but one team in your league will be toppled in the end…and they weren’t kings, but a lot of you were – king of your league. The highest scoring and best win rate percentages in FFM history in the regular-season. The person who was always two steps ahead on many of the hit waiver wire pickups. The person they scoffed at their draft with ‘too early’ drafted Tyreek Hill and stupid Mahomes-Goff-Trubisky QB depth charts…only to later be left in amazement on ‘how you knew’.

Don’t throw all that away today in frustration of the waxing you might have got Sunday or if Curtis Samuel doesn’t score 20+ points tonight. What are we supposed to do? Dominate the league all year and then in Week 13…drop everyone who got us here and pickup Derrick Henry, Mike Williams, and the Falcons-DST?

Today, if you’re done, it is a time for mourning and kicking the dog and yelling at people at work/home. Let it all out, but then in a few days you’ll look back and realize it was a pretty hellacious (good) season overall, for many of you (why you had a playoff Week 15 in the first place). Cry about it today, but in a bit you will stop proclaiming curses and stop making ‘I’ll never draft ___ again’ statements and you’ll see more objectively and realize what a great season it was with a $#itty, Murphy’s Law ending.

Today and tomorrow we’ll mourn the dead. Then we’ll remember the good times/the high-end success overall as we hit Christmas.

OK, all that (above) was for the already fallen comrades. Now, we’ve got a whole other universe that benefited from the QB plague/Patrick Mahomes’ 235 yards/2 TDs doesn’t look so bad now – those moving on and those who need Curtis Samuel and/or Ian Thomas (among other names) to have a good-to-great game. You have hope. Samuel has been getting better every week. Thomas was stunning last week. You need good+ numbers, you might get them. If Week 15 taught us anything…it’s that the impossible is possible. The Bears are NFC North Champs…the Cowboys and Giants got shutout…Nick Foles is a miracle worker/the Eagles best QB…the Browns are in the playoff hunt…the Chiefs may be a wild card…the Steelers actually beat the Patriots…the Colts shutout the Cowboys.

You know anything is possible because I just went 11-4 against the spread in football picks so far this week.

Good luck to those trying to secure victories with normal McCaffery or Kamara, etc., performances tonight…those in good shape just needing to avoid ‘one of those games’. Good luck to those who need a special performance from the big names…good luck to those who need the big names to have a piano fall from the sky on them pregame to help then hold onto a slim lead. I (and some of you) can make lemonade out of this pile of Week 15 ‘lemons’ if Ian Thomas goes for 15+ in PPR and/or Curtis Samuel goes for 20+. Not crazy. We have hope…some of us.

The Week 15 quick notes:

ARI-ATL

-- Tevin Coleman (11-145-1, 0-0-0/1) has been garbage for weeks…but a star here. Just shows how bad the Arizona run defense/team is. Not a sign Tevin has found himself, per se.

-- Back-to-back weeks with a TD for Justin Hardy (3-29-1/3). Nothing is developing here, just blowouts (for/against) the last two weeks and Hardy got in the field and got himself a pair of scores.

-- Trent Sherfield (3-15-1/5) had another decent FF game, but his score was very late garbage in this blowout…overall, he was a non-factor. Goes to nothing if Chad Williams gets active next week.

DET-BUF

-- Isaiah McKenzie (6-53-0/6, 1-0-0) was on his way to a huge day, and I felt like a genius…and about the same time my FF-world started falling apart, McKenzie was set up for a big punt return mid-game, took about 2-3 steps then started favoring his leg and just fell over and grabbed his calf. Out came the cart…and thus started a fantasy bloodbath of bad luck. We almost had it with IMK…but he couldn’t finish the job.

-- Zach Zenner (10-45-1, 3-0-0/4) started, but after that he was pretty well gone for the game…popping up here and there, then got strong use on his TD drive. The Lions have no intention of working him as a lead. They don’t want ZZ to show up Kerryon Johnson. If KJ is back this week, Zenner is a ghost.

-- Keith Ford (14-46-0, 1-7-0/1) is a talented RB, but he looked like he saw a ghost when all the sudden he was all that was left at RB for Buffalo. He’s be something to consider next week with a full week of practice and McCoy-Ivory out again. I’ll go into more detail in the recap.

GB-CHI

-- Packers Rookie DT Tyler Lancaster (7 tackles) played heavy snaps for the injured star DT Kenny Clark…3-3-7 for tackles the last 3 games – not bad output from a rookie DT. He’s 6’3”/313, 5.01 40-time, 7.46 three-cone, 32 bench reps. Solid enough prospect…UDFA out of Northwestern.

-- The Packers-DST had a solid game here – they are a legit option next week at Sam Darnold. The Packers defense is top 10 against the pass and held well here but couldn’t overcome their offense’s lack of sustained drives…because the Bears’ defense rocks.

-- Tarik Cohen (5-21-0, 5-31-1/6) now has 7 TDs in his last 11 games. He had a 2nd TD all set…an easy score, but after the catch (five yards from the goal line) Cohen didn’t turn upfield assuming defenders were on him so he scooted out of bounds – if he turned up he would have saw a clear, easy path to a TD. He’s their main TD weapon in the red zone…an RB1 every week.

OAK-CIN

-- In a game he should have been unleashed a little, Jeff Driskel (14-33 for 130 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was sheltered. No developing sleeper…no interesting use of a 4.5+ speed. Marvin Lewis and Hue are killers of interesting/innovation on players.

-- With Driskel holstered…Tyler Boyd (4-38-1/5) can’t do much better than this type of game – he draws all the coverage and Cincy is not producing numbers in the passing game. Boyd also sprained his MCL in this game.

-- The Raiders played without their two good, starting guards…thus Doug Martin (9-39-0, 0-0-0/1) went nowhere. You would expect that again next week if they are out – and it will limit Derek Carr (21-38 for 262 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) and the passing game’s upside vs. Denver next week.

DAL-IND

-- The Colts-DST has held four of their last 5 opponents to 21 or fewer points. Three of those were held to 10 points or fewer. Facing NYG in Indy with no OBJ – the Colts are a legit DST option.

-- With the theme of the week…”Players that suck having a great Week 15” – it wouldn’t be complete if Marlon Mack (27-139-2, 1-10-0/1) wasn’t cut by me all over the past 2-3 weeks, and then I get to watch him have a great fantasy game for the first time in a month+. I don’t think it’s a turning point as much as – it was working and they went with it.

-- Blake Jarwin (4-45-0/7) followed up a 7-catch, 56 yards game with a solid 4-45 here. Perhaps, they are seeing Jarwin as their poor man’s Travis Kelce, finally.

MIA-MIN

-- Kalen Ballage (12-123-1, 1-0-0/1) busted off a 75-yard TD run in relief of Frank Gore (injury). Ballage is a neat straight-ahead runner, so give him a hole and this could happen (same for 100+ other RBs). The interesting thing here was – Gore went down, and they went to Ballage, not Kenyan Drake (1-6-0, 3-28-0/3). No one knows how to bury their best offensive weapon better than O-C Dowell Loggains. If Gore is out…it will be Ballage as lead, and I wouldn’t get too excited about that.

-- Adam Thielen (2-19-0/2) now has 70 yards or less in five of his last 6 games…under 30 yards in three of his last 6 games. Something has changed…gone are all the automatic 100+ yard tallies.

-- Mike Zimmer is essentially in charge of the offense now…gone are independent-minded O-Cs, and in is his hand-picked guy he really wanted before this season began. With that you get Zimmer’s dream game…40 rushing attempts, 14 completed pass, and a big win. Cousins-Diggs-Thielen number decline has been happening and is here to stay.

TEN-NYG

-- We all thought Derrick Henry (33-170-2, 1-0-0/1) was going to get jammed the ball all day coming off that TNF event vs. JAX the prior week. We all thought that EXCEPT the Giants defense was unaware. Washington is going to get a big dose of it this upcoming week.

-- Evan Engram (8-75-0/12) and Eli have been working extra the last two weeks…Engram FINALLY is a top target and has a game he should have every week, minimum. Time to start trusting him again (unless Lauletta appears).

-- You cannot trust the Titans TEs…Anthony Firkser (0-0-0/0) was a no show. Luke Stocker (2-27-0/2) mattered more, the blocking TE.

WAS-JAX

-- The full DJ…Leonard Fournette (11-46-0, 3-18-0/40 has no prayer with no O-Line (all injured) and no QB that defenses fear. Every time Fournette gets near the ball, 11 guys swarm him. Great matchup with Miami Week 16 but I don’t think ‘good matchup’ exists for Fournette.

-- Jeremy Sprinkle (3-19-1/3) was a solid receiving TE for Arkansas…but has been buried in the pros. I wouldn’t get excited about him – Josh Johnson cannot be trusted.

-- Be afraid of the Jags-DST Week 16. You may have to use them, but teams going to Miami party too much while there, thus Miami 6-1 at home this season. The Jags have no reason to try and every reason to enjoy Miami night life…plus, their awful offense not helping anything. Beware of a Jags-DST bust Week 16.

TB-BAL

-- Now, the Ravens have to go all-in on Lamar Jackson (14-23 for 131 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 18-95-0). No more fears that Joe Flacco slips in there. LJax is a QB1 in 4pts per pass TD for the ROS.

-- Gus Edwards (19-104-1) works better than Kenneth Dixon (11-48-0, 1-2-0/1) in a rainy/sloppy game…a straight ahead runner. Edwards worked here, but there may be more of a split the next two weeks with him and Dixon.

-- Last two games, Chris Godwin (0-0-0/3) has 1 catch on 13 targets. As I’ve always said on Godwin – I don’t like him with Winston because Godwin needs a precise, tight window passer. Godwin in Green Bay could be a star. Not with Jameis.

SEA-SF

-- Chris Carson (22-119-1, 6-29-0/6) is the apple of Pete Carroll’s eye and he is getting a ton of touches now that he’s healthy again. Rashaad Penny doesn’t stand a chance this year, upon his return from injury…and maybe even into next year.

-- Matt Breida (17-50-0, 5-46-0/5) was back from injury and was the center of the offense. Jeff Wilson (7-46-0, 0-0-0/1) died and went to RB4 heaven.

-- Doug Baldwin (4-77-2/6) has taken back his mantle as #1 WR for Russell Wilson. Baldwin had 2 TDs, nearly a 3rd. David Moore (1-9-0/3) has died and gone to WR4 heaven.

NE-PIT

-- Well, I told you…Jaylen Samuels (19-142-0, 2-30-0/2) is more talented than James Conner. Why they did not use him more as a receiver here, I will never understand. The Steelers will fight this tooth and nail…they will push Conner and all but bench Samuels as long as they can get away with it. Eventually, Samuels is going to make this a split role backfield before he eventually takes it over someday in the future…not this season.

-- Rob Gronkowski (2-21-0/5) and Tom Brady (25-36 for 279 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) had no answer all game for the Steelers defense – where they usually rise up and stick a dagger in teams, they just look antiquated and ineffective here. Last week, they looked awesome/like old times.

-- Since Rex Burkhead (4-25-0, 3-18-0/3) has returned…Sony Michel (13-59-0) and James White (2-12-0, 5-25-0/7) have fallen from RB1-2s to RB3-4s.

HOU-NYJ

-- Elijah McGuire (18-42-1, 3-29-0/4) got his chance at being a lead back…and, well, I’ve seen enough. Between last year, this preseason, and his extra work as ‘starter’ the past two weeks – I’m not impressed at all. He’s just a guy getting touches right now.

-- Honestly, Trenton Cannon (7-13-0, 3-24-0/3) looked better to me than McGuire, but he’s not a lead dog runner either.

-- If Lamar Miller (3-8-0) is down…Alfred Blue has (9-6-0, 2-9-0/2) been a very capable fill-in, but the discussion is going to turn to whether D’Onta Foreman might be ready to go/come save the day.

CLE-DEN

-- Courtland Sutton (5-42-0/6) really played a nice game here. Somewhat slowed by his quad injury, Keenum was flinging prayers his way and he was coming down with some – he’s such a future #1 WR. Just needs a real QB to unlock the full potential. Using him in 2018…touch-and-go WR2.5 with TD hopes any given week.

-- DaeSean Hamilton (7-45-0/12) has a better rapport with Keenum than I expected. He may be more legit useful for FF because Sutton gets such attention.

-- Sure, now Antonio Callaway (5-35-1/7) hits. The week prior I thought he would have this game (vs. his 0). Callaway is the one guy that has been homerun hitting with Mayfield…it’s random/inconsistent but been happening like every other week.

PHI-LAR

-- Jared Goff (35-54 for 339 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) got in line of the QB fantasy disappointment train that happened again this week…an extension in the league from the last three weeks of top QBs all falling from grace at the same time. For 12 weeks history was being made with offensive production. The last three weeks, the top QBs cannot even throw a TD pass.

Once again, Goff leads the world in passes to the one-inch line…setting up almighty Todd Gurley for easy TDs. Goff completes 65% of his passes, throws for 339 yards, has a TD pass reversed an inch short, and then has receivers who aren’t smart enough to stroll out of bounds in obvious late game/no timeout out of bounds situations to preclude a late game-tying/winning TD pass…and Goff will get all the blame.

Whomever is to blame…Goff didn’t come up fantasy-big in the most obvious spot he should have at the exact time we needed him to. Nor does he look like the guy for Weeks 1-12. More on ‘what’s up’ in the game analysis.

-- Jason Katz was right…you can’t trust Josh Adams (15-28-1, 0-0-0/1)…or any Eagles RB because of the RBBC at heart game plan. Doug Pederson does the right thing for the NFL…maddening for fantasy. I’m not even sure it’s the right thing for the NFL in this particular situation. Adams is a superior talent/weapon. I’m starting to see numbers/metrics flashed on different pre-game shows, in-game analysis where Adams’s production trends with some of the top RBs in various analytic categories – it’s all meaningless to Pederson and the population at large. It was mostly meaningless here.

-- Brandin Cooks (6-59-0/7) was a ghost most of this game. No targets to him (or any WR) early, then a flurry before halftime, then nothing. I’m not sure why this is. He was open…he makes tough/tight window catches. Too much reliance/first and second looks at Gurley before anything else…is what it felt to me in the live watch.

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Top 5’s….

*I realize trading in most leagues is over/done for the year, but some still have open trades all the way through…especially in dynasty. I’m thinking more long-term/dynasty/keeper with this Buy Low/Sell High list right now.

Top 5 ‘Buy Low’

1) Allen Robinson, CHI – I cannot express how good Allen Robinson looks playing right now…he looks fully healed from his 2017 injuries. He’s a new man the past 5-6-7 weeks – a major spring in his step. He keeps having weak FF games driving his value but he’s working like a real #1, like he is/has been in the past. In 2019, Trubisky will be better and ARob will be another year into the system as well. Love that they sentiment keeps going negative while what I see on tape is terrific.  

2) Adam Thielen, MIN – He’s really falling off of late. Current owners wouldn’t even discuss him in a deal earlier this year, but they’ve been burned too much over the past 6 games. They might be willing to talk now. You still have to pay a high price, but maybe your hot names of the moment might get you into him these days…maybe.  

3) Dante Pettis, SF – I just keep seeing Odell Beckham Jr. like ways here…a future #1 WR for the 49ers. The masses wonder about Goodwin-Garcon, and I am seeing articles saying they need to draft/trade for/sign a WR – it means they do not respect Pettis beyond ‘a guy’. I think there’s more here.

4) Baker Mayfield, CLE – He’s going to be a 6pts per pass TD league star, I’m telling you. His numbers are all over the past few weeks (with more sweet games than meh ones), so he’s not become an ‘it’ guy for the mainstream, but he will someday – and the more the Browns inch towards making an AFC North title run…the more eyes he has on him. I’m worried this is as cheap as he gets.

5) Courtland Sutton, DEN – The masses think they might like him, but they’ve not seen him do much at all for fantasy…not since Demaryius was traded and then not with Emmanuel gone…it’s been all false promises. He’s so going to be a star…cornerstone of a dynasty future. He flashed you signs of it Saturday if you watched him.  

Top 5 ‘Sell High’

1) James Conner, PIT – I spent the whole season warning about Jaylen Samuels’s impact on Conner at some point – that Samuels was a better talent than Conner, and that he’s at least be a 3rd-down back to hurt Conner’s value someday.

That day happened vs. the Patriots.

You gotta sell Conner, even laterally, just to avoid the trouble brewing. You should get strong RB1 value in a deal right now while people believe Samuels is a placeholder/back to the bench when Conner returns. This might be your last to sell at RB1 prices…or Samuels has dented it and you’re stuck holding now, waiting for Conner back on top.

2) Derrick Henry, TEN – Nice follow up game from his TNF explosion Week 14. However, he had 33 carries this week…not normal for him/them. He essentially had two good games wrapped up into one great game against a weak defense in the rain. Henry will fall back to earth some and your chance to sell him as an RB1-1.5 will be gone, maybe for good.  

3) Aaron Jones, GB – Might be done for 2018 (MCL sprain), but dynasty people will think he’s the guy for 2019. New coaches will be coming in…and they may want a different, real RB. Jones is more a complimentary or 3rd-down back. GB drafts or signs an RB and Jones goes from RB1.5 to RB3 in a hurry.

4) Marlon Mack, IND – You got a nice value spike Week 15…100+ yards and 2 TDs. Perfect opportunity to sell high. He’s not a future workhorse, he isn’t a current one…looking at the prior month/s.

5) Gus Edwards, BAL – Too many issues in the way to see Gus as ‘the guy’ in the future. Kenneth Dixon…possibly a new head coach in 2019…Gus’s lack of talent…whomever they draft in 2019…if they trade for Jordan Howard in 2019, etc.

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Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’ (players tracking under 50% ownership in leagues)

1) Jamaal Williams, GB – Of all the sudden RB starters for Week 16…JW is my favorite to start the week. Facing the Jets with Aaron Jones likely out…and Joe Philbin needing a win to prove himself worthy to be the new head coach. They won’t get cute with Tra Carson here, it will be ALL Jamaal.  

2) Elijah McGuire, NYJ – He will have the same week he had last week…give or take the TD. If you need that…he’s an option. Not an exciting one.

3) Alfred Blue, HOU – Likely to be the lead back this week, depending upon Lamar Miller’s injury…but I’m suspect of Texans’ RBs for FF as it is and then D’Onta Foreman could loom. My guess is, if it comes down to it. O’Brien goes heavy on Blue because of the experience in the system, etc.

4) DaeSean Hamilton, DEN – Two nice targeting performances in-a-row. Plus, he’s terrific. Plus, he’s facing Oakland this week.

‍5) Lamar Jackson, BAL – Still under 50% owned…some bailed on Joe Flacco concerns. I was worried about a Flacco insertion if any signs of trouble, but now the Ravens cannot turn back. In an era of all QBs dying with their passing numbers…maybe the best runner among them is the cure?  

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Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’

1) Wendell Smallwood, PHI – Had a blip game. He’s good, but Josh Adams is the lead…and none of it matters because it’s an RBBC plan with Adams-Sproles at the top. Smallwood could have 2-3 carries this week.  

2) Robert Foster, BUF – His numbers are roaring…I just don’t like a rookie QB going to NE in a must-win game for the Pats.

3) Kalen Ballage, MIA – If Frank Gore is out everyone will turn to Ballage…and I get it. He’s a ‘rookie’ and they have magical unicorn powers and he did run for a 75-yard TD Sunday. The problem is Ballage is a limited runner…great build, poor vision. He’s not a 15-20+ carry game changer. Miami has to win, so it would not be surprising if Kenyan Drake took the majority of work and Ballage was a relief back this week. Facing the JAX defense is no help for Ballage getting more touches either.

4) Robby Anderson, NYJ – I love Robby but I hate Sam…and facing a suddenly very good+ Packers pass defense – I think Robby could get shutdown. He’s always hope…but in Week 16, this does not look favorable against GB’s rising, great young CBs.

‍‍‍5) Eli Rogers, PIT – Have never liked him. I don’t get the Steelers affinity for him. Finally, active for a game…and right into the starting lineup. James Washington had his best game last week. I just don’t see sudden starter Eli Rogers mattering now…he never has anyway and isn’t any special talent.

Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’

1) D’Onta Foreman, HOU – If Lamar Miller is out, even for a week…Houston might turn to D’Onta to help keep up their winning ways. Alfred Blue is good, but Foreman can be a game changer and a nice asset to get going for the playoff run.

2) Kelvin Benjamin, KC – Has a chance to score a TD every game from here on in, through the playoffs. So much better in a secondary role and could really be a shock performer in this high functioning pass game.

3) Keith Ford, BUF – May have to start Week 16 at New England, and he’s not a bad RB talent. Very green but has skills. A week of practice with the ones might get him comfortable enough to try to have a moment to launch his career.

4) Zach Zenner, DET – Started in Week 15, but then disappeared for most of the game…and then came back later and did what he did Week 14 – led a scoring drive. Why the Lions are wasting time with Blount-Riddick in a lost season when they can take a look at other options…God only knows. Maybe, just maybe, the Lions wake up. If Kerryon is back…this story is over.

5) Blake Jarwin, DAL – 7 catches two weeks ago, 4 catches this past week. We have to start really paying attention. He is a skilled pass receiver and could be a TE1 threat, but Dallas hasn’t shown to use the TE regularly this season…until the last two weeks started showing some other signs of TE life with Jarwin.  

6) Brandon Powell, DETBruce Ellington out Saturday…Powell with 3 catches and 1 rush attempt. Could the Lions just stick with him and see what they have? Why that would make too much sense! Perhaps, they stop being ridiculous this week and get him more looks/targets…probably not.

Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them’ Players:

1) Chris Thompson, WSH – Been dead for a while, but any hopes they might re-ignite his 3rd-down back role that was so productive the past season with a new QB and the playoff pulse…nope. Gruden wants more AP…and now, more Byron Marshall.  

2) Chris Conley, KC – Hill’s heel is fine. Kelvin Benjamin is about to matter. Demarcus Robinson keeping his nose in the action. Conley is blocked from going any higher.  

‍‍‍‍3) Rashaad Penny, SEA – No hope of a hostile takeover of Chris Carson in 2018. That pipe dream died. If CC goes down it will be a Penny/Davis split, possibly with Davis in more of a lead role. The future with Penny is promising, but the current/2018 is done.

4) Justin Jackson, LAC – ONLY if Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are back. Jackson doesn’t have a prayer to matter if both are back, and probably not if one or the other is back…especially Gordon. Jackson has limited long-term appeal as well.

Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe) to Consider:

See Weekly Projections for Week 16 best and sleeper plays.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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