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Quick Notes: Three Things From Each Sunday Game + 'Top Fives' (Week 6)

Date:
October 15, 2018

Quick Notes: Three Things From Each Sunday Game + 'Top Fives' (Week 6)

*Disclaimer – I watch all the games live Sunday, however many at one time, and these are my initial fantasy reactions/notes. I will then watch each game and detail and file a deeper report on each game, and may change my stance midweek on something I say below…but as a quick reaction to Sunday’s action, here’s my quick take…

Games in random order:

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Well, the 2nd-half of the Chiefs-Patriots game probably changed your outlook on the fantasy season last night. I’m sure by halftime you had a strongly worded letter crafted in your mind to send me on how Tyreek doesn’t work, he’s not getting targets…and Mahomes was a bit of a flash in the pan…yada, yada. Good thing you didn’t send that note during halftime.

Many FFMers pulled a victory away from a defeat they started marking down at the half of the Sunday Night game…and not only did your win-loss record change in the matter of a few hours, so has your entire season outlook. By halftime of SNF you were planning what complex trades you could make to fix your terrible team. A few hours later, you had MYreek (Tyreek+Mahomes) sugar plum fairy thoughts dancing in your head going forward. All is right with the world again.

What I absolutely don’t want to hear this week…”Well, I would have lost this week if it wasn’t for Tyreek and/or Mahomes.” Hey…no shit!! Your opponent wouldn’t have been kicking your ass prior if it wasn’t for Saquon Barkley or Todd Gurley. We didn’t craft a preseason draft or acquisition strategy of Tyreek + Mahomes by accident. THIS WAS THE PLAN. Welcome to the plan. You’re damn right you would have lost if it wasn’t for Tyreek + Mahomes. THAT’S WHY WE PLANNED FOR THEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Enjoy the execution of a plan…don’t cheapen it with the word’s ‘luck’ and ‘if it wasn’t for…’. Today’s a day for mostly celebration not typical fantasy owner self-loathing. You have the rest of the week to lose sleep over ‘my RBs are killing me’. Stop and enjoy the victory for at least a day. You picked or traded for Mahomes…Tyreek…James Conner on purpose. No one forced them on you. They weren’t auto-drafted to you. You did this. Rejoice.

James Conner…we were a bit lucky on that dart throw. Tyreek-Mahomes…THAT WAS THE PLAN. Most FFMers are now 4-2/3-3 and in the playoffs (held today) because of MYreek. Some are 2-4 (a game out) or cruising at 5-1. Rare is the 1-5, but they exist. Most of you are in the playoffs, or a game from the playoffs…even two games out with good scoring/bad schedule on the season is doable/still alive. The plan remains the same whether you’re up a game+ or down a game+ in the playoff chase…7 games to go…a lot of time. Work waivers. Buy low/sell high. Don’t panic. Don’t create problems that don’t exist…and then try to solve said problems with a passion all week.

Heavy BYEs the next 5 weeks. This is where we tend to shine by our bench depth and smarter waiver moves while the others get caught in the mainstream undertow chasing butterflies for solutions.

Stick to THE PLAN.

CHI-MIA

-- I think the Chicago Bears just became an ‘open’ passing team (not an over planned/safe passing team or run-first team). Mitchell Trubisky (22-31 for 316 for 3 TDs/1 INT) is starting to show the ‘signs’ of super-stardom. He’s not there yet. It will probably be choppy for a few weeks with some higher highs and a few false starts before he finds a comfort zone into stardom. More on this in the game recap.

-- With the Bears going a different direction on offense now, Jordan Howard 14-69-0, 0-0-0/1) is falling to an RB2.5-3.0. He just doesn’t really fit in this system. He may get dealt before the trade deadline, but I suspect he’s more likely a candidate for offseason trade. He just doesn’t fit what they’re doing…they want a more nimble runner/receiver that’s 6’0”/220. Howard is a terrific ‘pound the ball’ runner. Tarik Cohen (5-31-1, 7-90-0/9) has become the Bears’ RB to own (PPR).

-- I’ve been pro-Albert Wilson (6-155-2/9) since the spring, but be careful getting too excited on him this week – (1) a couple odd, broken plays sprung him for two long TDs. He’s talented, so those things can happen, BUT they were more fluke than the arrival of the new era. This was also Osweiler…not Tannehill -- if Tannehill is back next week, he doesn’t have quite the relationship with Wilson. Why? Wilson was running 2nd-team much of the preseason and regular season (inexplicably). I like Wilson but I’m not going overboard here.

BUF-HOU

-- Josh Allen (10-17 for 84 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) hurt his elbow and was relieved by ‘pick-six’ Nathan Peterman. In Week 7 you either get Allen or more likely Derek Anderson, maybe Peterman for the Indy-DST.

-- Will Fuller’s (2-33-0/3) numbers in three games since Keke Coutee hit the scene: 2.7 rec. (3.7 targets), 32.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game. Prior to that Fuller began the season with 6.5 rec. (10.0 targets), 107.0 yards, 1.00 TDs per game. I can’t believe he just goes to nothing…but the latest trends say he is.

-- Two games in-a-row the Texans defense holds an opponent to 16 or fewer points. JAC-MIA-DEN coming up before their Week 10 BYE.

TB-ATL

-- Jameis Winston (30-41 for 395 yards, 4 TDs/2 INTs) had a big day against the pass defense everyone is shredding. Hosting a tougher Browns defense and then on the road to Cincy and Carolina followed by Washington is a rougher four-game stretch ahead.

-- Shockingly…Cameron Brate (1-15-1/1) had only one target, an early look TD. O.J. Howard (4-62-1/4) still not 100% got 4 targets. Very out of character for Winston – which means we all need to run from getting too cute on Brate ahead and OJH will be a random event but more TE1 than not if this game is any indication of where the Bucs plans are going…a very wary TE1.

-- Austin Hooper (9-71-1/10) has back-to-back games with 9 catches each game and 10+ targets. He’ll be in hot demand on waivers this week considering Graham-McDonald-Cook are on BYEs. I wouldn’t go crazy for him. For me, this is a blip event. Hooper’s just not that talented and the Falcons rarely push the TE for long/consistency.

ARI-MIN

-- It’s getting painful watching David Johnson (18-55-1, 2-15-0/5) in games this year. Almost every play is up the middle into defenders waiting for him and almost no targeting in a league that cannot dump passes to RBs enough...except to DJ. Until Mike McCoy is fired, DJ is an RB2 you hope scores a TD to salvage his week.

-- Christian Kirk (6-77-0/7) took another nice step towards being Josh Rosen’s ‘guy’ and a stronger PPR WR 2-3 week-to-week. He’s so far ahead (today/usage) of rookie WRs like Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, etc., it’s ridiculous…especially with him being on such a bad offense. He’s going to be a star, and it might be happening ‘now’.

-- After weeks of doing nothing as the spot replacement starter for Dalvin Cook, the Vikings didn’t get cute – they jammed Latavius Murray (24-155-1, 1-3-0/2) down the Cardinals throat. If Cook is out next week…we’ll all get baited into ‘believing’ again. I can’t figure out what Mike Zimmer is doing with Murray week-to-week.

LAC-CLE

-- Tyrell Williams (3-118-2/4) re-reminded us all ‘what’s possible’ with him, but then you look up and see he has just 4 targets ion the game, which is typical. He needs to miracle TD catches to have a day…targets and TDs aren’t happening normally with Rivers.

-- This is the first time I’ve started to wonder if Carlos Hyde (14-34-0) is in trouble for touches ahead. The team is cratering, and rarely has a comfortable lead to just pound the ball. Now, Nick Chubb (3-25-0) is starting to show a little something. Duke Johnson (2-36-0, 4-73-0/5) is complaining his way to touches as well. Hyde’s upside is getting capped…and worse could be more touches for other guys bumping him to RB2.5-ville or worse.

-- Damion Ratley (6-82-0/8) popped up out of nowhere to lead the Browns WR group, another athletic UDFA WR who isn’t technically sound for the Browns. Late in the game, Ratley got hurt and unsure his status ahead as of this writing. He’s just a random ‘guy’ forced touches he’s not ready for but athletic enough to make some hay. Not an obvious future star, but more so a as useful as the moment allows.

IND-NYJ

-- The extended Marlon Mack (12-89-0, 1-4-0/2) re-debut as starter was much better than his original effort a few weeks ago. Mack ran with bounce, elusiveness. He lost a couple targets with penalty. He established what I was hoping for – he’s clearly the best RB option on this team. Nice matchups ahead – BUF next week and then a juicy one with OAK Week 8.

-- I’m not too thrown off by the Indy-DST after this game. I’ll assume Andrew Luck (23-43 for 301 yards, 4 TDs/3 INTs) isn’t going to throw picks to guys like he bet on the opponent, constantly setting them up for score every week.

After watching Osweiler take the Bears for 31 and the lowly Dallas offense hit the Jags for 40. You might as well just go with no DST week-to-week.

The Colts get whatever bad QB the Bills are going with at home, and then they get Derek Carr the following week. Not sure where you can turn to for any DST hope right now. The moment a defense has a good week they get destroyed the next, and vice-versa. The Colts have as giving a schedule as any.

-- Quincy Enunwa (1-0-0, 1-9-0/1) topped his Week 5 ‘zero’ with a Week 6 ‘negative’ score. He had a fumble and left the game early with an ankle injury. Could be serious, and if the injury is anything resembling serious, or a few weeks ‘out’ -- just bail on him in redraft.

CAR-WAS

-- If you were wondering what having an awesome catch, amazing run-after-catch TD on your first touch of the season last week gets you this week, after being the team’s best WR in the preseason – it gets you no targets + kickoff return duties for Curtis Samuel. In other news, D.J. Moore (4-59-0/5) played half-asleep again and lost two fumbles in a half but stayed in the game like nothing happened. In other news, the Panthers lost.

-- Minus Chris Thompson, the other Redskins RBs combined for a total of 4 targets – showing how valuable and unique Thompson is. He’s a pass catching threat by design not by game flow.

-- The Redskins-DST got back up off the mat after the Saints beat-down Week 5. They’ve held three of 5 opponents to 17 or fewer points this season. They face (thought to be) the weak offense of Dallas (at home) and then at Eli…possible usage the next two weeks.

SEA-OAK

-- Just when you think you have the Seattle backfield figured out…Rashaad Penny (9-43-0, 2-27-0/2) rises up from the dead. All I know is…Chris Carson (14-59-0) is the most beloved by Pete Carroll and is the least talented of Penny-Davis-Carson. How do you play that each week in fantasy? I have no idea. Each week is like a pull on a slot machine handle with the Seattle backfield touches.

-- David Moore (2-47-1/3) scored another TD…but on 3 targets. I really like his future but he’s not a primary look for Russell Wilson. He’s a random hope for a TD week-to-week at this stage.

-- In the last five weeks, the typical Jared Cook (2-10-0/2) game has been 4-5 catches, less than 50 yards and no TDs. He has these amazing spikes in a game and then goes to sleep for 2-3 games. This Oakland passing game is so bad, I’m not sure I want to buy low on Cook. You can barely roster Jordy Nelson (2-6-0/3)…AND HE’S THEIR #1 WR!!!

PIT-CIN

-- James Conner (19-111-2, 4-18-0/7) gave another performance to make the Steelers not go begging for Le’Veon Bell to return. I’m moving the latest reading of the tea leaves to…

50% = Bell traded, or put on an inactive list if he does return

40% = Bell returns Week 10 to a hero’s welcome

10% = Bell returns anywhere between Week 7-9 to said hero’s welcome

-- Now comes the fun with Dalton-Boyd-AJG….at KC, TB, BYE, NO over the next 4 weeks. KC and TB being bottom of the barrel pass defenses. The Saints starting to turn around a bit, but shootout potential is high.

-- The Steelers-DST is getting up off the mat as well. They’ve been scoring a bunch of FF points, but the matchups have been dicey and they’ve give up a lot of points. However, back-to-back 21 or fewer allowed. They’ve been DST productive.

Coming off their BYE after Week 7…CLE-BAL-CAR-JAX-DEN-LAC-OAK. Not powerhouse offenses…with maybe LAC as a ‘bad’ matchup. It’s not a great schedule, but it’s good and the Steelers D is starting to percolate a bit…becoming what we predicted earlier this season.

LAR-DEN

-- I didn’t see anything wrong/off with the Rams passing game. Good work by the Broncos pass rush + the cold didn’t help. Several near-miss TD passes and then Gurley cleaning up some easy stuff. ‘All-in’ and buying low this week if opportunity presents. This was probably the toughest pass defense or weather situation Goff will face until Week 14 at Chicago.

-- Denver is getting crushed on the ground week after week…if David Johnson doesn’t go off against them Week 7, I will personally go ‘take out’ Mike McCoy myself.

-- Cooper Kupp (0-0-0/1) really hurt his leg bad…got carted off 2nd quarter and then popped back to the field after halftime, shockingly. I bet when that injury settles overnight that he’s out for a week or two…Josh Reynolds (1-0-0/2) becomes a deep sleeper again.

JAC-DAL

-- Jamaal Charles (5-5-0, 1-5-0/2) got some sporadic touches in his Jags’ debut. He looked solid enough. It’s just the Jags are so bad, and Dallas was playing hot. No great opportunity for JC to grab attention. I don’t think Jacksonville is serious about pushing Jamaal Charles at all.

-- Who knew the key to defeating Ramsey-Bouye was Cole Beasley (9-101-2/11)? I think this is a one-off. Beasley has had almost no consistency all year (any year) and never anything like this. I wouldn’t get cute trying to grab him off waivers. You think Dallas has ‘learned’ something? Really? The Jags allowed it and Dak abused it…not likely to happen next week.

-- The Dallas-DST has held four of their 6 opponents to 20 or fewer points this season. Two in-a-row under 20 without Sean Lee. They’re a possible play at Washington Week 7. I don’t expect Lee is back until Week 9.

BAL-TEN

-- Gus Edwards (10-42-0) came off the practice squad took 10 carries. He’s nothing special, a slower, ‘try hard’ UDFA rookie. He’s no real threat to the backfield besides sucking some touches away – and he’s definitely not anything for a dynasty future.

-- The Tennessee offense is so atrocious we’re now at Taywan Taylor (1-13-0/2) being dropped and Corey Davis (1-24-0/4) a definite bench and possible drop. I’ve not been a fan of Davis, but part of the reason is on dying Mariota.

The Titans are now a for-sure bottom 3-5 offense and a great ‘start’ for your DST. The Chargers have them this week.

-- The Ravens-DST is hot…five of 6 opponents under 14 points in a game, but they’ve enjoyed some very favorable scheduling. Brees-Cam-Ben ahead will let us know how real this defense is. I’m still a skeptic but I’ll ride anything working right now as DSTs have been erratic all over the league all season so far.

KC-NE

-- This was the big moment where Josh Gordon (5-42-0/9) ‘arrived’ as a Patriot. His numbers don’t show magic for FF, but three things: (a) Gordon started/played 81% of the snaps. (b) led the team in targets. (c) had everyone on the team talking him up all week.

Sometimes you see a lot of noise about a player and they get 2-3 touches that week. Gordon’s move is different…the reality backed up the talk. Gordon is about to make a move into WR2 with ‘next stop’ possible at WR1.5+.

-- The Patriots decided their best way to win was to takeaway Travis Kelce (5-61-0/9), and that nearly cost them the game. No other team will try such a scheme (after seeing Mahomes/Hill race thru it all 2nd-half). If this somehow gets you Kelce in a trade a bit cheaper, and you own MYreek…Kelce is the third part of the trinity.

-- You’d rather have Kelce than Rob Gronkowski (3-97-0/4), whose TD-less streak ran to five games.

He’s scored 2 TDs in his last 8 regular season games.

7 TDs in his last 16 regular season games.

Gronk is a strong TE1, but no longer ‘best in class’. For me, ‘best in class’ is now Travis Kelce because of St. Patrick…and I missed on seeing that ahead.

Top 5 ‘Buy Low’

1) Jared Goff, LAR – I’m telling you no one believes in this guy as a top 3 guy…and no TDs last week clinches it for them. If you play and in a QB-friendly scoring league and your current QB is letting you down – Goff is a ‘season saver’ potentially. A guy who can lead fantasy in scoring at QB from here on in.

He’s past the tough part of his schedule. A bunch of shootout games coming and his next 3 road games, two are in a dome. Only one real weather threat – Week 14 at CHI. Goff can be had cheap for the upside potential here.

2) Kenny Golladay, DET – He’s a WR1.0-1.5 threat in all formats…trading as a WR2 sometimes as a 2.5-3.0. He’s not a trusted name, generally. He tends to have a Marvin Jones feel…hot for the moment Lions guy, which undermines his value. He could push the top 10-15 in WR fantasy scoring this season. He should have had at least 2 TDs and 100+ yards Week 5 and been a lot hotter here.

3) Travis Kelce, KC – Obviously, not an easy get. May be impossible to do reasonably. I put him here because (a) not a blowout performance on SNF, so that always help temper down values. (b) IF you have Mahomes-Tyreek…if you can get Kelce to complete the Holy Trinity – you have quite the war machine foundation going forward. If Mahomes can carry you…it’s Hill-Kelce going with.

4) Josh Gordon, NE – Now is the time. I get it won’t be easy. Lots of positive chatter about Gordon, and perpetual hope exists with his current owner. However, Gordon keeps getting chatter and he keeps putting up WR3-4 performances. Some of that on limited snaps, but he was a main starter and target this week. The not-great performances, in the box score the past few weeks/his entire NE run, are keeping his price down.

I say, if you can get him for a WR2-2.5 pricing…you might have a chance at a blowout WR1 story of the season type event…maybe. How many WRs can you say that about? I’ve been anti-Gordon for years. I’m a buyer now.

DON’T be dumb. Don’t go ask the current owner ‘what’s it take to get Josh Gordon’…the price doubles if you ask for him direct. Try to slither your way into a multiplayer deal of some kind with feint interest in Gordon, etc.

5) James Conner, PIT – The Steelers BYE week. The Le’Veon rumors. Can you get a panicky owner in need during the BYE trying to ‘dump him’ to you? Are you willing to gamble that no Le’Veon back (trade, exemption list) lands you an RB1 at RB2+ prices RIGHT NOW while the panic would be at the second highest? First highest panic is when Le’Veon walks back in the door. This is a gamble Conner is ‘the guy’ from here on in…and willing to live with the consequences if Bell returns.

6) Kenyan Drake, MIA – Needing an RB hopeful…one many are giving up on? Kenyan Drake is Miami’s main weapon. They are in the playoff hunt. They are starting to spring Drake as a receiving threat…3.7 targets per game the first 4 weeks, 8.5 targets per game the last two weeks. He’s getting Kamara touches – 7-10 carries, 6+ targets…and that’s a good thing. He’s trading as an RB2.5…sometimes RB3 for those listening to Matthew Berry mock him all last week.

7) Chris Thompson WAS – Missed last week with injury. Had two weaker games prior to that. A guy who was running as an RB1 in PPR for a stretch going back to 2017 until the last few weeks…down weeks, BYE, out with injury. If he’s coming back clean – he could be had for a RB3 valuation in some leagues. May get dropped by a few in 10-team redrafts by panicky owners?

‍‍8) Baker Mayfield, CLE – Saying this for dynasty…the football analyst community wants Baker Mayfield to fail, so he’ll be mocked this week. He’s had 3.5 games in the NFL so far and hasn’t had ‘that’ game yet. He’s been close. His receivers are killing him. Bad week (so they say) vs. LAC. There’s a lot to dismiss here, but Mayfield is a star in waiting. A fantasy game changer of the future. The window is only going to be low until one moment ‘pow’ there’s no turning back. You can’t get Mahomes, but you can get Goff or Mayfield…reasonably…usually.

Top 5 ‘Sell High’

1) Carlos Hyde, CLE – His value is starting to drop anyway…coming off weaker games but his numbers are good overall. He’s RB relief for the desperate in BYE weeks. I’m not saying ‘dump him’…just if you need/want to move him in a multi-player deal, I’d be open to it…trying to get strong RB2 value. Nick Chubb is starting to show something…gone is his horrific preseason and first few games. Duke Johnson is nice for the passing game. Hyde is getting boxed out of some touches ahead, I fear. If you see it too and want to sell ahead of it, go for it.

However, another loss or two might have CLE trading Hyde to the Patriots, so…

2) Allen Robinson, CHI – Bears scored a ton of points Week 4, ARob had a TD…but it was on just 4 targets. After the BYE week, the Bears score 28 points…ARob gets 6 targets, not great -- does score a TD, but his play is mostly boring timing passes. He’s not working like a dangerous #1. Just a weak #2 type WR. He’s not dead, but he’s not a WR1…but some see him as ‘the name’ on a rising Bears offense. He’s just not ‘the guy’…not that I’ve seen. If you can get someone to overpay for him…

3) Jameis Winston, TB – I’m just not a fan. After a big week ESPN & friends are going to hype him to the moon…but he had a big game (and lost) to Atlanta. Every QB is smoking ATL’s pass defense. His schedule gets tougher ahead and I just don’t think Winston has the ability or mental prowess to beat better defenses consistently. I think we he starts to fail he’s going to swirl down the drain with the masses turned on him. He’s going to be made into a god this week – sell it.

‍4) Chris Carson, SEA – Selling him to a patient owner during CC’s bye week if you’re desperate isn’t a crazy idea. Carson isn’t a super talent and Rashaad Penny and/or Mike Davis are taking touches. Carson had those back-to-back 100+ yard games recently and that might get him to fetch more than you’d think for some people who see him as a clear/dominant RB fore Seattle. Most don’t, but there is a hidden little group that does – see if you can find that person if you want/need to.

5) Drew Brees, NO – If you want to get super cute, if you have Brees and can sell him Goff + ___ or you have a great other QB…you might want to consider it. Brees is awesome, but if your team is sinking/has a major hole – just remember that Brees was a QB2 last year when Ingram/Kamara went off. They established a run game, ran more clock, etc. That could happen some again PLUS Sean Payton is in love with Taysom Hill running the Tim Tebow offense near the goal line…taking more FF-goodies away from Brees. Just a thought.


Top 5 ‘Waivers to Trust’

1) Marlon Mack, IND – Well, this is what I was waiting for…Mack showed in Week 6 that he is ‘the guy’, and he’s clearly better than anyone else the Colts have. ESPN was pushing Nyheim Hines all last week – you should’ve been sitting on Mack. If not, you’re going to have to pay now. The reasonable talented #1 RB for a team is not to be taken lightly.

2) Taylor Gabriel, CHI – I love reading all the waiver articles from analysts talking about how they’ve ‘been telling you about Gabriel for weeks’. Nice. I’ve been telling you about Gabriel for months/years. So that means I’m better ;)

You should have been starting Gabriel last week not considering him on waivers but he’s very lowly owned (all by FFMers), so I have to address this one last week.

3) Christian Kirk, ARI – I’m telling you…’superstar’ in PPR is going to happen, but it looks like signs of it ‘now’ versus weeks from now or 2019. Josh Rosen’s go-to WR and he’s wildly talented. Some bumps in the road along the way you have to live through because their offensive scheme is terrible.

4) Keke Coutee, HOU – I continue to be stunned how reliant and desirous the Texans seem to be to get Coutee the ball. He’s a good dump off option for a QB who is under constant pressure.

5) Peyton Barber, TB – Lot’s of BYEs coming up…so, a reasonably talented RB (since his weight loss) getting all the touches is worth something.

6) Chester Rogers, IND – The #2 WR target on a team that has to throw a lot in games for various reasons…one of them being they like to have Luck throwing a lot. Rogers is a ‘right place, right time’ winner.

Top 5 ‘Waivers to Distrust’

1) Tyrell Williams, LAC – Great…2 TDs…on 4 targets – and it took miracle catches to do it. There is nothing purposed on targets to Tyrell with Rivers.

2) Austin Hooper, ATL – Two huge target games in-a-row has people’s attention, but I don’t believe he is a purposed, consistent part of the offense. I get it if you’re TE desperate on BYE weeks, but I fear this is a flash in the pan of targeting.

3) Cole Beasley, DAL – I don’t believe in the Dallas passing game despite them wrecking the Jags. A few weeks ago, Marcus Mariota shredded the Eagles out of nowhere. Things happen. Beasley is a thing that happened for a week.

4) Jermaine Kearse, NYJQuincy Enunwa is likely out for at least a week if not more. Kearse is nowhere near as talented. Great game/week, but don’t think it’s normal.

5) Nick O’Leary, MIA – Strange things will be done in the name of TEs during heavy BYE weeks. O’Leary is going to become a starter by default for Miami. He had a TD this week. He’s not good. Not a fantasy thing I’d ever want to own (then probably see him on my ‘trust’ report in 2-3 weeks…actually, that will never happen).‍

Top 5 ‘Deep Sleeper Plays on the Radar Screen’

1) Mitchell Trubisky, CHI – I guess people are going to start believing, but I know most reading this have great QBs already or already have him. I think ‘it’ is about to happen in like 3-4-5 more weeks of development. Get in early if you want.

2) Greg Zuerlein, LAR – I keep being told he is going to return this week. It’s rumor, so take with grain of salt –but Z is a difference making kicker. Not to be taken lightly.

3) Cameron Meredith, NO – We might be about 2-3 weeks away from Meredith as the #2 target WR on a high-functioning offense…a real TD threat/non-PPR asset and potential PPR one as well.

4) Josh Reynolds, LAR – I have a feeling Cooper Kupp is going to be out a few weeks. Reynolds is a TD threat if he’s starting.

5) Rashaad Penny, SEA – Came back to life out of nowhere last week. I think everyone wants Penny to play a major role except Pete Carroll…but he may have to admit in a week or two. Penny is a gamble he is too good to deny sooner rather than later.

‍6) Ito Smith, ATL – If you buy that Devonta Freeman is ‘not right’, then consider the following statement – I think the Falcons value Smith more than Tevin Coleman. Their terrible run game is built more for Ito than Tevin. Ito is more Devonta like. Worse case, Ito matters (nonPPR) with Freeman out in a split with Coleman. Best case, Smith becomes a 60-40 carrier of the ball with Freeman out…and we find out Freeman is getting put on the shelf for the year (I’ve thought that for weeks per sources…that Freeman isn’t ‘right’).

Top 5 ‘Just Quit On Them’ Players:

1) Chase Edmonds, ARI – Many DJ owners here reading this… If you think DJ sucks in this offense…what do you expect from Edmonds if he were pushed into the offense on a DJ injury? A weak handcuff hold in non-deep roster leagues.

2) Marcus Mariota, TEN – Had become one of the worst QBs in the league on an offense totally built against his skill set. D-E-A-D.

3) Alfred Blue, HOU – The moment Lamar Miller could run, the coaches ran back to his nothingness as fast as they could. Blue will never gets respect and D’Onta Foreman is returning.

4) Chris Hogan, NEJosh Gordon’s uprising means the official end to Hogan as WR2 and is nothing more than a WR3/flex flyer during heavy BYE weeks…not even sure he’s that valuable.

5) Gerald Everett – I’ve been watching him closer since Sean McVay started talking him up a few weeks ago. There’s one problem, and I knew it back in his college scouting – he’s not very good. He’s had some opportunity with LAR injuries popping up the last two weeks and has done ZERO with the chance.

‍‍

Top 5 DSTs Off Waivers (maybe) to Consider:

1) Chargers-DST – Ahead: TEN-BYE-SEA-OAK-DEN-ARI. Schedule remains very favorable and maybe Bosa returning soon.

2) Colts-DST – I hate that they got bopped in Week 6 by the Jets, but I’m not furious at them. The Colts turned the ball over four times, one for a defensive score and the other three setting up easy scores – but credit the Colts for holding the Jets on many drives during the onslaught. The Jets kicked 7 FGs…the Colts came up with stops time after time in a game they were in bad field position a lot of the game.

Upcoming:  BUF, @OAK, BYE, JAC, TEN, MIA, @JAC, @HOU, DAL, NYG. Might could use them from Week 7 on.

What? You’re confident in JAC or CHI defenses after Week 6?

3) Texans-DST -- JAC-MIA-DEN-BYE-WAS-TEN-CLE-IND-NYJ through Week 15. They can’t cover anyone (13 TDs/5 INTs allowed passing YTD) but they do have Bortles-Tannehill-Keenum ahead.

4) Cowboys-DST – If they can get Sean Lee back, they’re a top 5 NFL defense threat. WAS-BYE-TEN-PHI-ATL-WAS ahead is not super-favorable but no elite QBs/offenses to face. ‍

5) Cardinals-DST – They are really one of the better defensive groups in the NFL, but their offense has been so bad it masks it and puts undue pressure on the defense. DEN (hosting on TNF) and SF Weeks 7-8 will work if needed.

6) Redskins-DST – Dallas and NYG the next two weeks. You could do worse.

7) Steelers-DST – One of the top scoring DSTs in the league as it is... On a BYE this week and then CLE-BAL-CAR…not great, but use-able. Then JAC-DEN-LAC-OAK Weeks 11-14 looks better. I like their defense but I worry about this schedule. The good games are on the road…one of them (OAK) before the NE week is a distraction concern.

8) Jets-DST – I’m done disrespecting the Jets nice defensive run this season. #2 in the league in INTs. Weeks 9-14…MIA-BUF-BYE-NE-TEN-BUF – 4 of 6 very usable games. A DST to pair with another to get past Weeks 7-8 (CHI-MIN) and that Weeks 11-12 BYE-NE.

Don’t like for schedule or other reasons on these DSTs making noise/news/lists: BUF, GB

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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