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Sunday Commentary Wk16 (11:58pmET)

Date:
December 24, 2017

11:53pmET: Week 17 planners...

Jacksonville and Kansas City now have nothing to play for.

Eyeballing Charcandrick West to start and Hunt to have the week off.

Suspect the Jags will start the starters after their Week 16 nightmare and the fact that Doug Marrone does what Tom Coughlin wants, and that is start starters going into a playoff game. The starters will probably play a half. I also wonder if the Jags would like to play Tennessee, which they would if Tennessee wins Week 17.

Assuming Philly and Pittsburgh win Monday...Patriots, Eagles, Steelers have nothing to play for.

Rams, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks all with something to play for.

3:53pmET: The Computer has been on an amazing Blazing Five streak, a bunch of 4-1/5-0 weeks and a cluster of 3-2. Maybe 1-2 losing weeks all year. No 1-4/0-5 nightmares, but we've been overdue. Someday it was going to happen, but...  https://youtu.be/I0HEDqfIXqM

12:22pmET: Week 16 Projections updated.

I can't endorse Bibbs or Perine now that Perine active. A ton of risk either way. Gun to my head, for all the marbles, I got Bibbs banking on Perine not even starting or getting hurt right away.

Good Luck to all of us today...we're gonna need it one more time!!!

Injury Report Notes...

-- Lions down 3 starting OLs. Washington-Zenner out. Riddick-Green get touches but it could be ugly. I could see a Bengals upset coming. Doesn't help Matt Stafford with no protection.

-- E.J. Gaines OUT is HUUUGE for the Bills. Bumps Brady and the pats to cover. That's a massive inactive.

-- Odds Mike Gillislee scores a TD today is 115%...no James White, and Dion Lewis is not a goal line RB and the Bills give on the ground and not in the air.

-- Bears down 3 OLs now...I'm worried the Browns actually get a win here.

-- Jamaal Charles inactive? Yep. Could the Broncos hate Jamaal Charles more? Why did they even keep him this year once they were over?

-- No Latimer-Sanders, has to mean Demaryius Thomas gets at least 10 targets if not 15+.

-- Mark Barron out for LAR...a tick down for that DST.

-- Logan Ryan out...makes two CBs out for the Titans. Thus are continued Jared Goff push.

-- LAC without Russell Okung is HUUGEE for wagering purposes.

10:09amET: One of the main questions I'm seeing today...Chargers or Rams or Jags or Steelers DST?

First, all reasonable/good options. I could argue passionately for all of them.

My quick main arguments right off the cuff...my 1-2 sentence reaction when I think about them:

LAC -- Bryce Petty wasn't bad last week. Jets still scrapping. Weather not great favors lower scoring. LAC Defensive numbers great this year, but more 'good' when you yank the Nathan Peterman event out.

LAR -- Love them as a defense more than LAC, in general. I fear Mariota wakes up. TENN motivated for playoff lives. TENN doesn't give up as many sacks. Want to love LAR more but a capable QB could happen, even though MM has been terrible most of the last 4-6 weeks.

JAX -- The best defense, but faces J-Franchise and that might limit scoring for normally high scoring Jags. SF no O-Line...JG still not always on same page with WRs. Jags have to be 'favored' over JG but Garoppolo is no cupcake and he knows what he's up against.

PIT -- Flat or fired up after NE game? PITT sloppy on road, supposedly...but hasn't allowed over 20 points to any road opponent. TJ Yates bad. HOU O-Line the worst of the opponents of these 4 defenses. At HOU in a good weather/conditions/open dome on a solo afternoon game. Joe Haden back...a big boost. Tyler Matakevich back.

We're trending towards: PIT-LAR-JAX-LAC...but it's bunching up to be a coin toss among them.

9:10am: Ezekiel Elliott came back to the team slightly overweight this week. All those workout videos from Mexico...a little con job. May mean EE can't ALL the carries/workload. Will be spelled a little.

Morning Notes...

-- Brock Osweiler in, probably Sanders and/or Latimer out...leaves Demaryius Thomas as a bigger than normal target guy today, you'd think.

-- Samaje Perine supposedly game-time decision...he might be active just because the Redskins have no other RBs, and he's active but sits the whole game unless emergency. I think they will deactivate him for today. There's no reason to push it. Which puts Kapri Bibbs in-line for 20+ touches.

Washington's RB moves this week seem to indicate that Perine will not play...not today and maybe not the rest of the season. They signed Kenny Hillard yesterday afternoon.

-- The Vikings lost their starting Center to a broken ankle...a low-key killer event for them to make a Super Bowl run.

-- Kerwynn Williams supposedly going to play...I wouldn't trust him, nor can you really trust any Cards RB. We don't know where the carries are going and how long KW holds up. Williams would be the right FF play (if you had to) vs. Foster/Penny, if he's playing.

-- James White potentially out thus pushes Dion Lewis as a strong RB1 in PPR, and Mike Gillislee moves into a strong RB2 range in nonPPR, as he is almost assured to score a TD. In PPR, tough call. You expect Gillislee to go...what...15-70-1 here? Not bad, but he has yet to see a target this season and he was playing a lot early in the season.

However, if no White or Rex...it's Lewis and Gillislee and you beat the Bills by running. Is this where Gillislee goes 20-100-1? Is he forced a target or 3 because he plays more?

There's reason for excitement and fear with Gillislee...with the added bonus he faces his old team.

Weather Check...

*You saw the MIN-GB game, and the low passing game output? Case Keenum left 5-10 pts on the field on just missing some open receivers. Brett Hundley struggled because...of course. I'm not saying deep cold is fine but it wasn't as bad as it's going to be made out this morning. I suspect the cold weather from last night will be paralleled in all the cold games on the docket today by analysts. I'd avoid the cold in a tiebreaker between two even-ish options but I'm not in abject panic with a good-great QB in a good matchup with the cold. I just don't prefer it.

DET at CIN...continues to improve. 38-40 degrees, little wind chill. Should not be a big 'issue', just not ideal for a dome Lions team.

MIA at KC...this is one where the wind chill plays in a little. 25-29 degrees, feels like 15-18.

CHI at CLE...25 degrees, light snow, feels like 15 or so degrees. This one has a little more trouble for weak passing games. This is not ideal for Kendall Wright.

BUF at NE...33-35, feels like 26-27.

LAC at NYJ...37-38 feels like 33

OAK at PHI...32 degrees, 14-15mph wind feels like 22 degrees. This is going to be not-fun for the players.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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