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Sunday Morning Commentary Wk4 (12:25pm ET *Proj. Update)

Date:
October 1, 2017

Morning notes as I see them. Updating throughout (latest time in title). Moving fast so forgive typos...

12:25pmET: Week 4 Projections Final Update for kickoff. Good Luck today!

11:45amET: Key Inactive news...

-- Braxton Miller inactive with Will Fuller back...Bruce Ellington is ahead of Braxton. Where are all the scouts who pushed Miller as possibly the best WR prospect of that draft at the time?

-- Darryl Worley out for CAR...more help for the NE passing game, as if they needed it. Cooks could go crazy today.

-- Jarrad Davis out...doesn't change much because Paul Worrilow steps in

-- CLE without Collins-Garrett-Shelton on defense -- helps Joe Mixon and the whole offense

-- Dallas really banged up defense...the Rams in an upset making more and more sense.

10:50amET: I like to give this reminder from time to time, for those with 'Flex' in the roster...

I've noticed various of KC-WAS-SEA player questions/options...if your lineup is pretty set, and you have the following scenario consider a quick change:

(Example) If you have 3 RBs going (2 starters, 1 Flex) -- be sure to move the 1pm guys to starters and 4pm/SNF/MNF guy to 'Flex'. Just in case Chris Carson gets hit by a bus or if 3 WRs...in case Tyreek Hill gets food poisoning right before the game (and you have other KC-WAS guys on your bench)...whatever.

Just a small item so you leave yourself with more flex options if something bizarre happens. Hopefully, I explained that well enough.

10:18am: Summary of the NO-MIA game so far...both teams drove right down the field against each other's weak defenses. Cutler threw a pick in the end zone, while the Saints missed a FG -- both teams with one drive each 1Q.

Ken Crawley is starting to take over.

The Saints defense is rising up.

Jay Ajayi is complaining on the sidelines when he comes out.

Alex Anzalone hurt...it might be Ben Heeney time next week.

9:20amET: Danny Trevathan suspended 2 games -- keep this in mind for early betting, etc. The Bears have basically lost all their ILBs to injury and now suspension. They are on like 6th string RBs. Next week vs. MIN, then BAL...the two games the Bears will be stripped of any semblance of LBs.

8:40amET: CB Byron Maxwell out for London -- Ted Ginn stock up another notch more. Look for two more near-miss TDs. A rookie corner takes over (Tankersley)

Also, I was listening to a reporter discuss Sam Bradford...he mentioned Bradford wasn't even around the facility this week, and that the team has no idea when/if Bradford will be OK. Case Keenum is likely the guy for weeks...and Kyle Sloter is a heartbeat away...and Teddy Bridgewater becomes an interesting dynasty stash, maybe? Something tells me divine intervention has led Sloter to Minnesota.

8:05amET: Don't ask me about starting Carlos Hyde this week because it's a total mystery. If he's active you have to assume he can go. I think it's a 25% chance he is inactive. Hyde is a free agent at the end of the year and the 49ers are playing for 2018 anyway. Hyde's value is not on the field...it's to trade him the next few weeks or keeping him healthy for a solid year so he signs a big deal elsewhere and gives them a nice compensation pick.

Matt Breida is the likely 'handcuff', and the 49ers will find out quickly he's not an every down RB. However, he is a homerun hitter. In the vacuum of one game he could take 9 carries for 15 yards rushing and then hit an 80-yard TD on carry #10.

Raheem Mostert looked better in the preseason but not last week. The team management wants Breida. You may want to take a flyer on Breida for any number of speculative reasons from Hyde protection to just seeing what happens this week if your lottery ticket paid off (Hyde hurt/inactive) and you can flip him...or drop him next week..

7:55amET: First notes of the morning...

-- Michael Crabtree likely out, and if you think that means good things for Amari or maybe Cordarrelle -- I don't think so. Not against Denver's secondary. CP might matter if the use him as a bubble screen and RB guy...not as a Crabtree route running replacement.

-- The news keeps getting worse for Jay Ajayi, as we've been speculating. When the coach comes out talking about limiting him by taking him out more on 3rd downs -- big trouble for Ajayi owners. We'll know today if that's bluster or not. I think they know something is wrong. If they get whacked by the Saints, which I think they will, they have TEN-ATL next...which means 1-4 on the way and a very difficult schedule the entire 2nd half of the season. I suspect they will shut down Ajayi at some point in a lost season to manage his knee.

You build your team around a decent power runner with a knee condition who can't catch (Ajayi) -- you pay the price. Miami didn't draft any RBs, etc. this year.

Likely, Damien Williams splits with Kenyan Drake to start (if Ajayi goes down and out)...with Williams pulling more share because he is more experienced and stable. Drake will look good in flashes but he's not an every down guy.

FYI

From the home page...

1) Game Recaps to the left hand side

2) 'Premium' Articles...stuff not meant for the outside world. Right in the middle, big block dates showing.

3) 'Standard' Articles...these are open articles and ones you have to work for. They are up the middle on the home page, but under the 'Standard' articles. You don't see new ones of these on most devices/screens without scrolling down a moment. Yes, it's convoluted but we're working on it -- apparently, not as easy to make everything just show up in order without a possible calamity messing with the set up.

You can also see things more orderly under the 'R.C.'s articles' tab or Game Recaps from the top of home page.

Also note -- 'Search' bar upper right...type in any player and what articles we've tagged to that player is there all in one spot. it will take time to build it up and chronicle the past but we're working on it.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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