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Tarik Cohen Waiver Economics...

Date:
September 13, 2017

First, thank you for all the overwhelming response to the need for Cohen info. I have enough data to give us a good picture of the scene. You can still feel free to send in but a trend is developing with the big chunk of data we now have. The next call to arms will be 'send me your Cohen deal details' because most of you won last week and had no shot but now you're chasing via trade...as are dynasty and deep roster GMs. More on that tomorrow; hold your fire until I tell you what we'd like to see if you;re willing on Cohen trades.

OK, Cohen economics...

In bidding (and I'm portraying it all in $100 budget numbers):

35.7% of the winning bids were in the 30s (avg around $35)

28.6% of the winning bids were in the 40s (avg around $43)

28% of the winning bids were over $70...with a few where the winning bidder went all-in $100

Most FFM'ers bid between $35-45.

FFM'ers, no matter how high they bid won him 60.7% of the time.

Some websites are pushing Cohen to the moon and have no reason why besides 'rookie' and 'did you see that one play'. They are working against us. They don't know the treasure they're acquiring.

DON'T be a fool and chase Cohen like the world depends on it. There is a part two to this...and it may be the smarter play than bidding 50% of budget, but it's riskier. Put in a fair bid (in the 40's probably today with info coming out). If you lose him, go looking to take your hot Week 1 thing and stumble into a multiplayer deal. Or...have patience and wait a week. Had Cohen not scored a TD with the same exact catches/yards as last week...he goes for 20% less. If he has 5 catches for 78 yards total and no TD next week, he will be given away in deals when the new car smell wears off.

I promise you...they know not of what they possess. They are assigning him magical rookie powers and when he has a mediocre/good game they'll be chasing other things. You could probably get Joe Mixon cheaper because of his stat line from Week 1. Go focus on that if need be. You can let Cohen go for a moment and let the sizzle die down a bit. They will quickly see Cohen as Sproles-Vereen because that's what analysts are saying because it's 2010 to them and that's their go-to for pass catching backs. The Cohen shine is bright today, it will fade for a better entry point ahead most likely. This is not the end of the Cohen journey. People are more intrigued by Chris Carson. Don;t worry. They don't know what they have.

As far as waiver priority, Cohen went #1 grab 58% of the time. 1-2-3 79% of the time. No later than #5 reported, but that's an outlier for sure. He's mostly 1-2 in PPR waiver grabs.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>