Blazing Five YTD:
27-17-1 (61.4%) = Savage (4-1)
24-21 (53.3%) = Katz (2-3)
24-21 (53.3%) = RC (2-3)
24-21 (53.3%) = Colin (1-4 last wk)
22-22 (50.0%) = Rabbitt (2-3)
20-25 (44.4%) = Skol (2-3)
The message for Week 10…see what ‘Savage’ is doing – he’s white hot on his Blazing Five the last couple weeks/all season. This week, we could see four of us past Colin Cowherd in his own game creation…he’s the gold standard, beating him is a handicapping achievement.
I’m playing with a lot of favorites this week, high spread favorites…which is always dangerous, but I think the matchups are too strong for blowouts to ignore, at least that’s what The Computer says.
COLIN: NYJ, SF, LAR, ARI, CAR
Colts -11 - The look ahead line for this game was Colts -15.5. It's dropped 5 points, apparently because the Dolphins beat the Jets and Jacoby Brissett got hurt. Beating the Jets doesn't move the needle for me and Brian Hoyer isn't a huge downgrade from Brissett, so I think there's significant value on the Colts.
Vikings +3 - Dallas doesn't have much of a home field advantage and I still don't think their defense is that great. I expect Minnesota to be able to run the ball, which means their offense can be effective even without Thielen.
Steelers +3.5 - Pittsburgh continues to get zero respect because their offense isn't pretty to watch, but they're good enough on defense to play close with most teams in the league. I don't trust Jared Goff on the road at this time of the year, especially without Cooks, so if the Rams win I think it will be by 3 or less.
Titans +6 - There were several sports books offering Titans +3.5 early in the week. I just assumed those books were banking on Mahomes playing, so I was shocked when the spread jumped all the way to 6 after Mahomes put in a full practice. Andy Reid's goal in this game will be to sneak out of town with a win. Even if Mahomes comes out rust-free and plays like an MVP, I expect Andy to get ultra-conservative.
Bears -2.5 - The Lions have become a public underdog with all the reports of Mitch Trubisky turning a TV off or whatever it was that happened. As bad as the Bears have been over the last few weeks, you could make the case that the Lions have been worse, especially on defense. At home with the season on the line, I think the Bears find a way to win this.
MIA at IND (-10.5)
The Computer says: IND by 25.3…Spread Differential 14.8
Miami is still a mess, right? I mean…beating the Jets is not a cure all. At Indy, with either Hoyer/Brissett…the Colts are the more talented, disciplined team and could roll it up on Miami. It’s a kinda must-win for the Colts as well…there’s some urgency here.
SEA at SF (-6.0)
The Computer says: SF by 19.9…Spread Differential 13.9
Everything favors the 49ers here but ‘Russell Wilson’. Seattle has beaten a collection of loser teams barely, or (in the case of the Rams) should’ve lost to many of them. The 49ers get this game on an 11-day rest/prep and with the home/MNF momentum of the crowd AND gets back their two best OLs. I think they might blow Seattle out of the water here.
ATL at NO (-13.0)
The Computer says: NO by 26.3…Spread Differential 13.3
You give Sean Payton two weeks to prep for this game, and the week off allowing Brees-Kamara-Cook and some key OLs to get healthy…at New Orleans – high blowout potential.
ARI at TB (-4.5)
The Computer says: ARI by 6.4…Spread Differential 10.9
Why Tampa is -4.5 here is mind-blowing. It’s like us wondering how Oakland was an underdog to the Chargers. Arizona is playing better football and has the better all-around team, and you’re giving me +4.5? Thanks!
LAR at PIT (+3.5)
The Computer says: LAR by 10.2…Spread Differential 6.7
You give me the Rams with two weeks to prepare and getting healthy now WITH Jalen Ramsey facing the garbage team I see every week that disgusts me…the Steelers. I’ll swallow the points. Love it even more if James Conner ends up playing, and the Steelers continue with that mistake.