ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

Week 10 Sunday Game's Quick Notes...

Date:
November 13, 2017

*The Top 5 Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc. will post later today or more likely tomorrow pre-noonET.

For now, here's the instant reaction to Sunday, subject to change when I go through the tape fully a second time…

NO-BUF

 -- Tyrod Taylor (9-18 for 56 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 3-27-0) went from fantasy god last week to fantasy bust this week. He was replaced by Nathan Peterman (7-10 for 79 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) in the 2nd-half because Stone Cold Sean McDermott wants Peterman to be his QB…because at the end of the day, McDermott is likely to fail as most ‘defensive-minded’ head coaches do in today’s NFL due to their lack of offensive understanding and failure to find offensive talent (especially QB). Peterman is an NFL backup in talent, but is an old school coach’s wet dream of game managing and ‘first in, last out’ type of nonsense. Be afraid if you own any Bills-related FF-weapons now and in the future.

 -- At one point the Saints ran the ball like 20+ plays in a row…part of what drove the fantasy nightmare outputs for Drew Brees (18-25 for 184 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 2-6-1) and Ted Ginn (1-3-0/1).

 -- Seven-game win streak for the Saints, and five of them holding the opponent to 17 or fewer points…the ‘problem’ is that it has come against Cutler-Hundley-Trubisky-Winston-Tyrod. Let’s see what happens with Cousins-Goff-Cam the next three weeks. I’ve been advocating for the Saints DST going back to last season, but I don’t think they’re THIS good. It’s a little schedule driven.

 

GB-CHI

 -- If Jamaal Williams (20-67-0, 1-7-0/1) becomes an emergency start this week – don’t get too excited. This Green Bay offense is terrible and Williams is more of a bruising RB needing a ton of carries and goal line action to produce nicely for fantasy. I’d expect this kind of game from him if starting next week. He’s not much in the passing game either. He’s a warm body but he’s not a star.

 -- Dontrelle Inman (6-88-0/8) looked good in his Bears’ debut. I want to dismiss him but Mitchell Trubisky has to throw to someone. Being a #1 WR for a team is worth something. However, this is the worst passing game plan in the NFL week-to-week so be careful.

 -- Redraft…fold those Tarik Cohen (1-1-0, 1-10-0/2) cards. I have held on way too long…hoping the BYE week would bring us something fresh that the team would’ve worked on/implemented. Instead, he has his most useless FF week of his 2017. Unbelievable. The Bears come out trying to use him and then they just forget about him. Surprise! The Bears lost again.

 

CLE-DET

 -- After being absolute garbage all 2017…Isaiah Crowell (16-90-1, 1-5-0/2) has posted back-to-back games with 5+ yards per carry and a rushing TD in each game.

 -- Kenny Golladay (2-64-0/3) back and Marvin Jones has 1 catch for 22 yards. Not saying Marvin bows to Golladay, but he’ll take some targets – and Golladay looks really confident and reliable every time we see him.

 -- 3 passing TDs in tis game for Matt Stafford (17-26 for 249 yards, 3 TD/1 INT) giving him 2 or more passing TDs in a game in 3 of his last 4 games.

 

CIN-TEN

 -- Corey Davis (4-48-0/10) is being used not-like a #1 WR. He’s a deep ball down the sideline guy mostly…and that makes him a shaky WR3 week-to-week right now…and not a lot of exciting upside to what people think/hope he’ll be used like.

 -- Demarco Murray (14-42-2, 4-30-1/4) scored 3 TDs in this game…so, everything is ‘fixed’ with him? No. If you can – sell this off ASAP. He looks terrible. He’s moving slow and tentative on almost every carry. I cannot believe the Titans are winning games using him as a lead RB.

 -- Terrible output for Tyler Kroft (1-4-0/6). Not sure what happened. The targets were what you’d expect/settle for but not connection which is odd. I’ll have to see on re-watch this week. I wouldn’t give up on him unless you were otherwise set at TE. I see this as a blip at this point.

 

PIT-IND

 -- I like Marlon Mack (7-7-0, 2-19-0/4) as a garbage-time accumulator…only, the past two weeks the Colts have been leading games and trying to sit on leads with Frank Gore. I thought the Colts would get whacked here and Mack would get 5+ catches but the Colts led almost wire-to-wire, blowing it at the end. Mack is a nice option in PPR in games you see the Colts down in.

 -- JuJu Smith-Schuster (5-97-1/7) had another quality game and another TD. I’m a seller if anyone gives me WR1.5 money in exchange for him. He’s a solid player for sure, but the name/hysteria is outpacing reality. You don’t have to force him out the door as the Steelers schedule is fantastic for the passing game the next two weeks – TEN and GB, both at home.

 -- Antonio Brown (3-47-0/7) has scored just 2 TDs in his last 6 games. Three TDs this season in 9 games. He’s on pace for 5.3 TDs this season. He hasn’t had more than 70 yards in a game the past three games. His trends are down since ‘the sidelines fight with a water dispenser’ temper tantrum. You have like 4-6 games left of Antonio this year for FF…and then an unknown 2018 without Ben. He’s not a hot trade at all costs but you might be at peak valuation of him for dynasty?

 

NYJ-TB

 -- Once ultra-hot TE Cameron Brate (1-10-0/3) has fallen to earth without Jameis Winston – 1 catch for 9 yards last week, and 1 catch for 10 yards this week. Tough to start him without Winston…and I don’t know that Winston will be back this season.

 -- TB IDP rookie Justin Evans (7 tackles) is averaging 6.0 tackles and 0.7 PDs per game over his past 6 games, as he becomes an established safety for the Bucs every week now.

 -- Four weeks in-a-row with a TD for Robby Anderson (4-85-1/7). He also caught another TD pass in this game but his 2nd foot came down out of bounds. A little tougher ahead with CAR-KC-DEN-NO-LAC to finish out…all but one of them might be a cold weather game. Still, he’s ‘the guy’ for the Jets now…as he should have been all along.

 

MIN-WAS

 -- Samaje Perine (9-35-0, 1-25-0/1) might have had his turnaround moment. He had his ‘looks like Jordan Howard’ moment…he ran tough and confident in this one – and I’ve been seeing a more confident runner for weeks hiding among the fumble hysteria. We might see purposeful starter Perine next week, but no guarantee. Jay Gruden has never bought into Perine, but he might be forced to love him now…Perine may have finally kicked open the door.

 -- Jerick McKinnon (10-32-0, 2-15-0/2) looked good, fine as usual…but a weak FF-output. The Vikings got up and pushed the ball with Latavius Murray (17-68-1). It’s the risk we run with McKinnon…it’s always some kind of split with Murray – and Zimmer wants to run with a Murray-type of RB.

 -- Josh Doctson (4-30-0/7) is starting to take a step ahead. His real breakout moment as a purposeful main target for Cousins is right around the corner. He had an easy TD in this game on a great move by him but he slipped in the end zone and fell, unable to get to the easy pass tossed his way. Docston as a more stable WR2.5-3.0 with upside is knocking on the door.

 

LAC-JAX

 -- When the going got tough, the Chargers went with Austin Ekeler (10-42-0, 5-77-2/5). Why? Because as I’ve tried to tell the football world for years now – Melvin Gordon (16-27-0, 5-15-0/8)  is not starting RB material. Is their an RB controversy? NO WAY. Anthony Lynn will double Gordon’s workload to make it up to him next week. The end is near for Gordon but probably more a 2018 story.

 -- Leonard Fournette (17-33-0, 2-13-0/4) is going to have to deal with ‘this’ all season, and components of it into 2018… The head coach is older than old-school in philosophy, topped in that only by his GM (Coughlin). Fournette won't have his ass kissed like Melvin Gordon has by coaches/the organization. Blake Bortles means defenses stack the line for Fournette…and that won’t change until they find a replacement and I don’t know if this management team is capable of finding a passing game. I don’t think they want one. All this led to Fournette out of the game for big chunks late…almost costing the Jags the game – Fournette not being used in the passing game and ‘benched’ for not popping 5+ yards every play against a 12-man box.

 -- I think you can continue to trust Marqise Lee (6-55-1/11), as much as one can. He’s clearly who Bortles prefers and has CLE-ARI-IND-SEA-HOU-SF ahead. Maybe the easiest passing game schedule in all of fantasy ahead.

 

HOU-LAR

-- Yeah, I’m human…at the half, I thought projecting Jared Goff (25-37 for 355 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) as the #1 scoring QB for the week was going to be a full-scale disaster. Not a bad second-half. Yes, Jared Goff is THAT good. As I’ve said beck two weeks 2-3. Not so easy next week at Minnesota.

 -- D’Onta Foreman (7-18-0) started this game but was ineffective, When Lamar Miller (11-60-0, 1-14-0/1) went in the game he was much better, and thus stayed as the primary back. Foreman is trying to get a push but not doing anything with it.

 -- Texans IDP Brennan Scarlett (4 tackles, 2.0 sacks) has never caught my attention before, but his number trends are now – 6-4-1-4-4 (4.8 per game) tackles in a game his last five games. We’ll see if he matters if/when Dylan Cole returns. Scarlett is a 2016 UDFA from Stanford, a 4.76 40-time with a 7.28 three-cone. He has my attention but I’m not moved to action by anything I’ve seen.

 

DAL-ATL

 -- Well, we see the game plan without Ezekiel ElliottAlfred Morris (11-53-0) starting and Mr. Reliable as needed, but they really want to push Rod Smith (3-14-0, 4-15-0/6). Smith looked very uncomfortable in this sudden push. Smith’s preseason ‘pop’ was not there in this game.

 -- I love Tevin Coleman (20-83-1, 1-5-0/1) as the clear starter with no Devonta Freeman around…but Freeman will absolutely be pushed back as the starter when he’s healthy (and may be fine for next week). If Freeman is not back, Coleman is an RB1 projection next week.

 -- Sean Lee (1 tackle) is the real key to the Cowboys’ defense. He was lost early and everything started sliding. If Lee is out next week, then they basically have no chance versus the Eagles. Much less if Tyron Smith is out. The Dallas DST uprising on hold if Lee is out.

 

NYG-SF

 -- Jimmy Garoppolo will start Week 12, and it will be hard to project his output. We’ve never seen him with this offense. The O-Line is weak and many WR assets are hurt/out. However, they still have pretty interesting offensive weapons…and if the 49ers are going to be in shootouts/deficits – it might be pretty good. Debut vs. Seattle looked bad on paper last week but is now a decent matchup.

 -- Marquise Goodwin (1-83-1/2) had the nice, long TD strike…but just two targets. That may change when he works with a real QB ahead with Garoppolo. Goodwin is a Week 12 sleeper WR3 that can be useful for the rest of the season…assuming Trent Taylor is not returning.

 -- This was why Sterling Shepard (11-142-0/13) has been on the ‘trade for’ or ‘waivers to trust’ list for weeks. He’s the clear #1 WR for Eli…and also note – he looks fantastic. I mean really good. He could be a PPR WR1 for the rest of the season with OBJ gone.

 

NE-DEN

 -- Rex Burkhead (10-36-0, 3-27-1/3) jumps firmly on the RB3/Flex radar. We noted it the game before their BYE and it’s why he was our ‘coming out of nowhere’ RB of the week – the Pats are starting to use him as a WR weapon out of the backfield. He’s slowly becoming Wes Welker-lite, only starting the pass patterns out of the backfield. 5.0 catches per game the past two games…3 catches in this game as the Pats were more low key and just sat on Denver, somewhat. Worst case, consider Rex cuts in James White’s (2-7-0, 3-11-1/3) role. He also might start cutting into a Dion Lewis’s red zone and goal-line role…he already kinda started to. This was the Rex that I was looking for this summer! Finally!! After 8-10 weeks of the season!!!

 -- There was no sign of a Devontae Booker (8-24-0, 1-5-0/1) push here. Vance Joseph thinks everything is OK, apparently. I’m done chasing that ghost…which means it will happen this week.

 -- Speaking of things I might have had right but it took some time to play out…The Patriots DST has held its last five opponents to 14-17-7-13-16 (13.4 PPG). Favorable schedule ahead, mostly…but four of next 5 games on the road.

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>