Blazing Five YTD:
31-18-1 (63.3%) = Savage (4-1)
26-23-1 (53.1%) = Katz (2-3)
26-24 (52.0%) = Colin (2-3 last wk)
25-25 (50.0%) = RC (1-4)
24-25-1 (49.0%) = Rabbitt (2-3)
22-28 (44.0%) = Skol (1-4)
The message for Week 11 is the same as Week 11…see what ‘Savage’ is doing – he’s white hot on his Blazing Five the last couple weeks/all season. Best data play…go with the hot hand.
Going to chase some underdogs this week…probably a week too late after underdogs ruled last week. I don’t have any real games that jump out at me data-wise this week, so I’ll take a lot of teams + points + pray.
DEN, NYJ, ARI, LAC, HOU
ARI at SF (-10.5)
The Computer says: SF by 2.7…Spread Differential 7.8
I liked this better when it started +13.5. I think SF is too banged up, missing key players to be thought of too highly against an offense that can score…and was a team that just played them and didn’t seem to fear them. I’ll take the cover potential here.
NO at TB (-5.5)
The Computer says: NO by 12.4…Spread Differential 6.9
I’m nervous about this play because of what the Saints did to me last week, but we get them with the public also worried driving this line down. The Saints need to fire back and put away TB this week, and Winston is so sloppy he gives games away. Taking the road favorite here.
DEN at MIN (-10.5)
The Computer says: MIN by 4.8…Spread Differential 5.7
MIN is great at home is my fear here, but this is too many points vs. a rising Denver team ever with Brandon Allen at QB, who isn’t terrible.
BUF at MIA (+6.5)
The Computer says: BUF by 3.3…Spread Differential 3.2
One of my other personal favorites. I don’t know that the gap between Buffalo and Miami is all that big, and this being at Miami…where road teams go to die/party too much. I’ll roll the dice with Miami. The Dolphins have covered like five in-a-row, I think. The public still things this team is a joke…and still thinks Buffalo is good.
JAX (+3.0) at IND
The Computer says: JAX by 0.7…Spread Differential 3.7
I’ve changed this pick from WAS, to DEN, to HOU, back to WAS, to ATL, back to DEN, and finally I’m just going with my heart – Nick Foles returns to give an emotional boost in a must win game and does as Foles does late in seasons…win.
Lions +6.5 - Jeff Driskel is getting the typical “backup QB” treatment with this line. The truth is Driskel isn’t bad and Dallas isn’t worthy of being this big of a road favorite.
Cardinals +10 - Arizona nearly beat the 49ers two weeks ago, and now they get to face them with a fully healthy Christian Kirk and no George Kittle. The more I watch the 49ers, the more I think they might be a paper tiger, so Arizona seems like they can stay close in this game.
Panthers -4.5 - I don’t think Atlanta is fixed after last week. We often see “dead” teams put up a fight against their division rival, only to fall apart the following week. Carolina should be able to impose their will here.
Buccaneers +5.5 - I still think the saints are a good/great team, but I’m starting to entertain the possibility that they’re overrated. All their wins are either by one score or against bad teams, and they could easily have 5 losses right now. I’ll take the points with the bad but always fighting Bucs.
Patriots -3.5 - The patriots off a bye, off a loss, facing the last team they lost to in the super bowl. It seems too easy.