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Week 11 into Week 12: Player Advice (Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc.)

Date:
November 21, 2017

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) Evan Engram – 1 catch game vs. KC, but many missed opportunities most not his fault. A team with two decent TEs might be willing to deal before the deadline. Dynasty – you have to build your future offense with this guy in it.

4) Jerick McKinnon – Seems like he is fading off a bit, but his snaps and touches are still good. A great RB2 that you can get as an RB3…or in some leagues a knucklehead might drop him.

3) Danny Woodhead – No major scoring in his return game from injury but I think 90% of Baltimore’s plays are throws to Woodhead…or it’s just in Flacco’s mind on a reel. Woodhead is going to be the new Duke Johnson/Chris Thompson-ish type PPR guy…possibly available as an RB2.5-3.0 valuation after a quiet return.

2) Tyreek Hill – The Chiefs are losing. Kareem Hunt has been fading. The media and fan pressure is ratcheting. In the NYG crisis, I saw Reid reach into the playbook for more innovative Hill plays like last year…and Tyreek is so damn good. He would have won them the game had they kept going to him. He’s so good and so undervalued. A desperate Andy Reid may hit the Tyreek panic button now…finally. 

1) Jared Goff – I can’t make myself any clearer. Price will dip again after the game v. MIN. He’s a pickup in redraft (great schedule ahead) and for sure dynasty.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Davante Adams – Pure speculation…if the Packers move from Hundley, we’re potentially screwed with Adams, I think. Joe Callahan is a decent no-name QB but we don’t know who he favors as a WR…might be Jordy. I have a feeling it’s more Jordy than Adams.

4) JuJu Smith-Schuster – There are 3-5 names every week popping up on waivers as WR3 types with WR2 upside. JuJu just has ‘name recognition’. He gets a lot of media chatter, favorability. Sell him as a WR2 or better if you can. He’s just ‘good’, not a star.

3) Jay Ajayi – I’ve had him here for most of the season, and it’s been the right call…and it still is. The media loves this guy…thinks it’s the greatest trade ever. Week 11 showed he’s part of an RBBC, as predicted. Someone believes Ajayi is just ‘getting used to the playbook’ and is destined to be a 15+ carry a game guy. He won’t be. Sell hot to that person.

2) Keenan Allen – A terrible season until last week, then he rocked a sad Bills team. Cash in on it because most teams are aware Rivers is trying to force the ball to Allen and game plan to halt it (like most have this season). More tough games ahead than not, but Week 13 v. CLE is nice.

1) Demaryius Thomas – After becoming a WR3 type FF-asset for the past 15+ games prior to Osweiler taking over, and barely scoring any TDs…DT has had TD catches in three straight games with Brock. I believe the Broncos will be turning to Paxton Lynch this week or next…and then the Thomas train rolls back off the tracks. Cash in on his past few weeks if you can…if someone buys him as a WR2 value or better.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Patriots DST – MIA-BUF-MIA, then PIT, BUF Weeks 12-16. The Patriots have held their last 6 opponents to 17 or fewer points in each game.

4) Josh Doctson – As we noted last week…the Josh Doctson era is almost upon us…a WR 1.5-2.0 type WR. Each week he advances a little more. He’s just about to ‘arrive’.

3) Andy Dalton – TD passes in a game since the new O-C took over: 2-4-1-2-2-0-2-3 (2.0 per game) and a 4-3 record. Cincy is sneaky good. Their losses have come against top NFL teams. They have a shot to get into this playoff race…and they get Cleveland this week…so, Dalton will be a top QB play for the week. You need a boost this week/have QB1 with a horrible matchup? Dalton may be your play. Last game against CLE – 4 TD/0 INT.

2) Jimmy Garoppolo – I don’t know what to expect from him coming over just a few weeks ago, but I know this – he’s a major talent who will be working on a team with an offensive-minded head coach…and on a team ready to throw a lot in shootouts/deficits. Debut, assuming, will be Week 12 vs. Seattle…and that’s not as daunting as it used to be. He’s more an investment for the future…if you need a QB now go Dalton.

1) Samaje Perine – Well, now the world is in on it…I hope you were able to act ahead last week or hold him through the dark times of 2017. The Jordan Howard story that I foretold in the summer of 2017…it just got lit. He looked exactly like I scouted him pre-NFL Draft in this game – he finally feels comfortable and is working with confidence. Jay Gruden has no choice now…Chris Thompson is out for the year. This is the Waiver of the Week/in many weeks.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Austin Traylor – 4 catches in his Broncos debut…added to the team due to a rash of TE injuries. A slow, blocking TE who had a couple catches in his debut. I don’t see any reason to get excited…especially with this passing game.

4) Danny Amendola – Big Week 11 and Chris Hogan’s status is unknown/out…so, it seems like Amendola would pop. He’s been more down than up for fantasy this season. There are better WR3 options out there…and if Hogan is back, forget about Amendola.

3) Chad Williams – Another Bruce Arians problem child prospect. Arians has been saying he’s going to give Williams more chances this week with John Brown out. Williams isn’t that great and isn’t ready for this…and has Blaine Gabbert at QB. Trade this hype in dynasty if you have him…for anything.

2) Austin Ekeler – I like the guy. I get giving him a shot for your fantasy team, I just don’t think the Chargers are going to give him a fair shot. You can hope for a TD next week, but the odds are a low-touch disappointment more than 10+ touches and a score.

1) Paxton Lynch – He’s going to be named the starter this week or next, I think this week. He’s not very good and this is his tryout for 2018 period…because Denver has nothing to lose. I didn’t see any progress this preseason.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) T.J. Logan – Due to be able to come off I.R. and Andre Ellington was dropped…I think this is why. He should get a decent look as the season collapses and if it’s clear DJ isn’t coming back.

4) Kenny Stills – ONLY if Matt Moore is at QB. Moore loves Stills in the passing game.

3) Devontae Booker – Worked his way to a bigger role last week, a split with C.J. Anderson essentially. I was a few weeks too early with this call, then gave up a week too early.

2) Mike Davis – I said he might be the #1 grab at RB of the week last week…and you saw a glimpse why on MNF – clearly, he’s Seattle’s best RB. It’s congested there but he might be their new #1…let’s find out more about his groin injury first.

1) Marquise Goodwin – The #1 WR for the 49ers. Jimmy G. likely to be at QB. Target totals in his last 6 games – 11-5-8-3-8-2 (6.2 per game…most of that with Garcon playing). 65 or more yards in a game in four of his last 6 games.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Kelvin Benjamin – He’ll miss a few weeks. Why would he rush back? Bad team. Bad passing game. So-so WR. Trade away for whatever.

4) Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley – You’d think one of them would have stepped up in this Dallas crisis…umm, nope.

3) Tyrell Williams – A scoring party for LAC last week…and Keenan Allen got 13 targets, and Tyrell got 1.

2) Jamaal Charles – Devontae Booker has moved up into a split with CJA, and Jamaal is out in the cold.

1) Javorious Allen – With Danny Woodhead back, Buck Allen’s services are no longer required.  

 

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**LAST WEEK’S NOTES**

 

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) Chris Thompson – Everybody is looking for RBs for depth or to start. Thompson has been a top 10 PPG producer among RBs this season but hasn’t had a ‘wow’ game in a couple of weeks. People always feel he’ll turn back into a pumpkin. You might get him for near RB2.5 value all of a sudden. Rob Kelley out may give him a few extra touches if Perine slips.

4) Joe Mixon – For those where the season is slipping away and you’re looking for an RB to rise up from fantasy mediocrity… For those in good shape but want to collect high upside pieces for the stretch run. All I can say is – every time I watch Cincy tape, I am left jaw-dropped by Mixon’s physical ability. Maybe he pops from here? He’ll be a top 5 RB1 of the future…buy in now for dynasty.

3) Sterling Shepard – I’ve had him on various lists here for weeks, and now he’s coming off a career day…so, why now/again? I just believe he’s going to be a strong WR1 possibility for the ROS…like a 6-8+ catches a game in constant losing efforts with a ton of garbage-time. If the current owner ‘found’ him and has this great Week 10…they might see him as just a WR2.0-2.5 to move ‘hot’, and you might have a recent-hot player to dump on them in they exchange…while they think they’re ‘selling high’ on Shepard to you. Be a buyer.

2) Dak Prescott – This week will be one where the media crushes Dak/Dallas. There is fear of Tyron Smith out another week. There is fear with Elliott out. Current owner might be on the ropes and cannot afford to wait. You know Dallas will fix/patch the O-Line issue without Smith, if needed. Elliott will probably return in Week 14 – in time for the FF playoffs. Everything could be fine with Dak in another week or so – a great QB to sit on and ride the storm out if you can. 

1) Brandin Cooks – He’s been here much of 2017. He’s been WR2 not WR1 this season, but I think the WR1 pop is just waiting to pop. The reason for the renewed enthusiasm is the schedule ahead – OAK, MIA, BUF, MIA…and now PIT with no Joe Haden, and BUF. Worst case Cooks doesn’t hurt you acquiring. Best case he explodes. Cooks hasn’t had ‘wow’ in a while so the price is WR2 range…I’m willing to try to craft a deal with smoke and mirrors to get him for that price. Looking for a WR1 at WR2 prices.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Antonio Brown – Just a reminder… Those in dynasty may have wanted to get out sometime this year for fear of ‘no Ben’ next season. However, the ‘Ben effect’ may already be happening to a certain degree – Brown has 3 TDs this season…on a pace for 5.3 TDs for the full season. The last three games for yards: 65-70-47, last 3 for catches: 4-5-3. The ‘wow’ numbers are not happening as frequently. I’m just noting in case you want to get out ahead of a price fall…we’re about at the time. Sweet schedule the rest of the way, however.

4) Cam Newton – Cam is Mr. Monday Night. Huge performance in a game people focused on. I’ve wanted you to consider buying low on Cam to turn your season around…this was another reason why. However, now may be the time to ‘flip this Cam’ if someone will give you strong QB1 valuation for him. 

3) Alfred Morris/Rod Smith – If the current Ezekiel Elliott owner is scrambling at RB and you can give him the bridge piece(s) until EE comes back, and you get a respectable deal – I’d take it. I think we might be banging our heads against the wall trying to bet on either of these guys. You may not even start them this week. Elliott may be back after four weeks out. If so, what are you giving up here? Don’t give them away but if they can be part of some deal with the Elliott owner where they have more desire for either/both…you may want to escape.

2) DeMarco Murray – After a nightmarish season, Murray finally had a great FF day…3 TDs. He still looks terrible. Tentative. No holes opening. Just 3.0 yards per carry. Use the 3 TDs to dazzle someone looking for desperate RB help. RB1.5-2.0 valuation is good enough to sell him off on.

1) Jay Ajayi – (Exactly the same rationale as last week) I’ve beaten the drum for this over and over…Ajayi is not a talented RB. He’s OK/useful, situational. The media thinks this the greatest trade in the history of football. A long TD run in a blowout validated their thinking here (just his 3rd TD run in his past 17 games). Sell this guy ASAP. He’s going into a committee and he’s not the receiving back or the best power back. The Eagles rotate with zero concern for who needs/wants touches. The Eagles O-Line is down a bit. Sell him as an RB1.5 and don’t look back. Take RB2 money if that’s all that is out there.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Jamaal Williams – The Packers offense is a mess. They are missing a key member of their O-Line. Ty Montgomery may be able to play. Just some of the reasons why this could be a waiver move people chase and it bites them. You likely get one week, if you’re lucky, out of this play. You have to hope Montgomery gets put on the shelf longer. It’s possible. But even Jamaal as starter in this offense…not that great. I claim Williams just to deal him ASAP.

4) Samaje Perine – No more Rob Kelley. Jay Gruden has to use Perine…and as I’ve been noting for weeks – Perine is showing a spark running the ball. He just needs a little wave of positivity to happen and he could help fix a part of the Washington offense. Risk that he gets ignored, still, but upside that this is finally IT. His ‘it’ opportunity…and he seizes it.

3) Danny Woodhead – An old RB with injury issues, coming back for what? Gimme the better version in Rex Burkhead. Claim Woodhead and trade him ASAP.

2) Rex Burkhead – More and more becoming the Wes Welker option out of the backfield. Starting to see more carries. Finally, this is paying off.

1) Corey Coleman – Comes back to a terrible matchup vs. the Jags, but then should be fine after that. He’s the team’s #1 WR and the guy Kizer loves to throw to. He might see 10-15 targets every week…which, with Kizer, means 3-4-5 catches and maybe something good in yards?? WRs are drying up now that Woods, Shepard, Lee, etc., have been claimed in prior weeks – here’s a guy who is his team’s CLEAR #1 the moment he steps back onto the field.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Chester Rogers – Caught a lucky break with a 61-yard TD versus the Steelers. Had a nice output game but he’s not going to be a huge producer working in this offense. He’s not a bad WR at all, but the #3-4 WR for the 2017 Colts is nothing to get excited about.

4) Teddy Bridgewater – He won’t start this week. No way. You can’t pull Keenum on a 5-game win streak, and especially going to face his old mates this week. Teddy is at least a week away…and upon his return, then, three straight home games against tougher matchups mostly – DET-ATL-CAR. I don’t trust Teddy returning into this offense.

3) Corey Clement – Great output game Week 9, and some are thinking he’s a possible 1-2 punch with Jay Ajayi…won’t happen. The Eagles play random RBBC at RB.

2) Dede Westbrook – Allen Hurns out for a few weeks, and Westbrook activated is going to get people excited. Why? I have no idea. Keelan Cole has beaten him out this season, and Cole is getting better every week. Westbrook isn’t that good and probably plays a few snaps and sees a target here and there. The football media loves this name but that’s meaningless.

1) Austin Ekeler – Ekeler is a relief RB on a team that is going to shove Melvin Gordon down everyone’s throats at all costs. He will never overtake Gordon and he won’t get enough work to matter for FF most weeks. Had a nice moment last week, and it will be forgotten shortly.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Devante Mays – OK, so if Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery are out for awhile…Devante Mays is going to get activated and if he’s active then he might blow past Jamaal Williams when he gets his touches. I’m just sayin’…Mays is similar to Williams and would be a heartbeat away from getting all this Jamaal love.

4) Bruce Ellington – Broken record on this since the preseason – Tom Savage has a special connection with Ellington. Will Fuller is out for a bit and Ellington is going to see nice target levels like he has the past two games (8 targets each game).

3) Josh Doctson – We’re getting closer to Doctson ‘happening’ now. It seems like we’ve been waiting for five years the past season and a half. There were a few false starts this season (a TD, or a big catch) but never any ‘wow’ numbers and/or consistency. I think we’re within a week or three of this being like Robert Woods…it seems promising, but you’ve heard the hype before, you get him and then he has an ‘almost’ week and a decent/OK game and he seems droppable and then POW! he’s the ‘it’ thing. I think we’re on the verge.

2) Greg Olsen – Carolina has a BYE next week, and then the word is Olsen is back Week 12.

1) Jimmy Garoppolo – BYE this week. Starts Week 12. For those in need of a QB2 who could heat up and help as a QB1. I don’t imagine the 49ers brought Garoppolo in to show off his ability to hand the ball off. It’s an extended practice/training camp…the more throws the better and SF will be down and out (and throwing) plenty ahead. In his four losses, C.J. Beathard threw 41.3 times per game.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Jordan Matthews – The Bills passing game blows. Kelvin Benjamin seems to be too important. Zay Jones will return. JMatt hasn’t mattered all year.

4) Will Fuller – There’s no need to rush him back, so he’ll be out longer than you think. Plus, with Tom Savage…Fuller doesn’t matter any more than a random WR3. Probably, WR4. If you need the roster spot, cough it up.

3) Dwayne Washington – I keep thinking and hoping but it never works/means anything. Some of have been holding for weeks/a year+ on dynasty rosters not wanting to ‘miss out’. I still think he’s worth holding on a deeper roster league (20-25+) but if you see anything better to gamble on…nothing seems imminent or ‘on the verge’. Plus, by you giving up on him -- it means Abdullah will get hurt this week, Washington comes in and takes off and someone else gets him and enjoys the fruits of your labor. Unlock the jinx!

2) Aaron Jones – Who cares if he’s back in 3 weeks? He was already falling into a split on a bad offense. The 3 weeks will probably be 4-6…whatever it is you’re waiting for nothing special given the surrounding circumstances.

1) Rob Kelley – I heard a discussion on the XM fantasy channel last night driving for 2-3 minutes…and the hosts were forlorn that Rob Kelley was hurt and would miss time and weren’t sure whether you should keep Kelley or not. Wait, what? If any of you keep Rob Kelley this week I disown you. Even if you have Samaje and want to hold the handcuff just in case…Kelley isn’t coming back this season. He was already awful when healthy, can you imagine him working with a PCL sprain? That’s a 4-6 weeks injury to bounce back from.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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