Blazing Five YTD:
32-21-2 (60.4%) = Savage (1-3-1)
28-25-2 (53.5%) = Katz (2-2-1)
28-25-2 (52.8%) = Rabbitt (4-0-1)
28-26-1 (51.9%) = Colin (2-2-1 last wk)
27-27 (50.0%) = RC (2-2-1)
24-30-1 (44.4%) = Skol (2-2-1)
Huge week coming for the Blazing Five. I think I’m in line to get 4-5 wins this week and start turning the numbers better for my YTD. I started hot and then went cold the last few weeks. I hated last week…I love this week more than any week in recent betting memory. I’m all in on this week.
TB at ATL (-4.0)
The Computer says: ATL by 17.7…Spread Differential 13.7
My bet of the year, so far. I’m going to live or die on this hill. You only get so many opportunities at something like this – my previous bet of the year was when the SEA v. ATL line was like -3.5 early in the week when people thought Matt Ryan would play with a sprained ankle. Places taking bets…that was an amazing early opportunity to take advantage of the news. Ryan did not play, the line ballooned to -7.0 late, and Seattle won by 7…but some of us got early -3.5/4.0 tickets.
This opportunity is not injury news based…it’s more that people are just missing what’s happening here with Atlanta. The handicappers and analysts I’ve seen/listen to…aren’t even talking about Atlanta. If the Falcons are mentioned, it’s more about how bad Carolina is for losing to them or the Saints losing to them prior. The Falcons are totally flying under the radar. The numbers the last two weeks are undeniable. The assistant coaching shuffle changes ATL made/players back healthy are a reasoning for change. The tape shows it to me. This is an amazing Atlanta team right now that is hosting a terrible Tampa Bay unit. It’s not a lucky team, it’s a near dominant team…why/how they pulled themselves together like this in a lost season, I do not know – but it is not a fluky couple of wins.
I bet this at -4.5, and more at -4.0. Sure, anything can happen in the NFL…but most weeks I’m trying to create data or scouting arguments why the ‘lean’ is towards this team or that team – this one is as clear as a bell. I’ve had about 2-3 moments of clarity/conviction like this during this season…and I’m not going to let go by.
DET at WAS (+3.5)
The Computer says: DET by 13.7…Spread Differential 10.2
What I love about this game, another ‘NFL analysts asleep at the wheel’ situation. Everyone thinks Jeff Driskel is a turd, when really he is a very solid/good QB…better than all the other temp fill-ins (Kyle Allen, Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, etc.). Detroit is constantly losing to good teams by close scores. All of their losses are to current playoff teams and Chicago. The Redskins would be their easiest game of the season.
I like extra ‘outs’ to win my big bets this week. With Atlanta…I got Jameis Winston turning the ball over. Here, I have the worst QB in the NFL that I will bet against – Dwayne Haskins.
Washington has not lost a game by less than 9 points since Week 1. Their closest loss was a 5-point loss to the Eagles. With Haskins at QB at any point in any game, the Redskins have lost those games by 21-10-15-17…including games with the Jets (17) and Giants (21).
I’ve been waiting for this line to drop to -3.0 all week. Circa and William Hill moved it to -3.0 on the Matt Stafford officially out news…that’s what I’ve been waiting for. For our B5 contest the line -3.5, but I am betting it at -3.0.
Detroit is missing a key OL and a top pass rusher, or I’d bet this about as high as Atlanta.
BAL at LAR (+3.0)
The Computer says: BAL by 13.6…Spread Differential 10.6
Here’s another ‘NFL analyst’s asleep’ situation but in a different way. Obviously, everyone is in love with the Ravens but I believe they’re not in love enough with them. This is one of the best teams of the last decade…and it’s all come together the past few weeks…where they’ve gone from good-to-great-to-unreal. It started in the Seattle Week 7 game, but it really happened in the Week 9 New England game, when Jimmy Smith returned – the Ravens had Humphrey-Peters-Smith as their CBs for the first this season against NE and shut them down. Baltimore has promoted other young players to starting defensive roles lately to help improve the defense and the offense is just unreal.
Since Week 7, the Ravens are 4-0 with wins by 14-17-36-34…against good teams (SEA, NE, HOU) and Cincinnati. They are not getting lucky or deftly maneuvering past teams – they are crushing teams. You want me to lay just -3.0 and I get the Ravens against any team any field? I’ll take it. It’s free money.
Oh, and the Rams suck out loud. They’ve beaten broken Atlanta, Cincy, and Chicago since Week 4. A 3-4 record since Week 4. Their offensive line is broken, they can’t run the ball, their defense is good but beatable. Since they acquired Jalen Ramsey, they have faced terrible offenses and broken Atlanta (pre their renewed breakout). The Patriots defense was AWESOME until the Ravens humiliated them. No one can really stop the Ravens right now…and if a team does, I don’t think it will the Rams – who had to limp by the Bears because Chicago kept missing FGs.
We haven’t even mentioned that the Ravens defense has been light’s out for weeks and the Rams’ offense is doomed. The Rams have scored 12 and 17 points the last two games. They might score 10-14 against Baltimore, if they’re lucky, and then…what? They’re going to hold the Ravens to 13-17 points? I don’t think so.
The Rams defensive metrics look good the last few weeks with Ramsey, but they are coming from playing bad teams. I love the head fake this game is providing to analysts and handicappers.
*I’m betting the above three games, combined, more than I ever have any three games in a week in my life. I’m assuming I will go at least 2-1, but 1-2 is OK if I get Atlanta…but 3-0 could make this the best betting games in-season in a while for me (if I don’t blow it all in the subsequent weeks).
I’ll reflect my amounts I’m betting, conceptually, in my ‘RC vs. the Stock Market’ report Sunday morning/Saturday night.
If I lose two or three of these 3 bets…I’ll be setting up a Go Fund Me page for grocery money next week.*
OAK at NYJ (+3.0)
The Computer says: OAK by 12.8…Spread Differential 9.8
This one I love, but it scares me because it’s the type of game I’ve been trapped on. Good team on the road laying points to a bad team…a game that The Computer sees a HUGE talent differential on. Obviously, the Raiders are better than the Jets. I fear the west-to-east travel and the possible rain, so I will only bet it lightly.
However, this has all the makings of another ‘asleep at the wheel’ game for the analysts. Everyone likes Oakland because they’re winning…but under the radar of it is their defense has gone from a disaster to very aggressive and effective in the past few weeks. Baltimore and Atlanta have shown how fast a defense can change in recent weeks (and Seattle as well).
This line is lower because while Oakland has been winning, so have the Jets (but they’ve beaten NYG and WAS.) Oakland has a win last week over Cincy that looked close but wasn’t as close as it seemed…which helps keep the line down too. All the key matchups favor the Raiders, but there are reasons to pause or sit this one out.
DAL at NE (-6.5)
The Computer says: DAL by 1.8…Spread Differential 8.3
The first time I saw this line at -6.5, I knew I was taking Dallas…I knew that was too many points to give. When I ran the computer data, it immediately called for the Dallas upset. Every handicapper I respect is taking Dallas.
Everything I know to lean on says Dallas, and the public always favors New England too much (like KC) and I get a good team with outright win potential getting +6.5 – I’ll take it.
Skol: Week 12 B5
CIN +6.5...PIT has no Pouncey, JuJu, Connor and play down to bad competition (5-15 ATS vs team that averages getting outscored by 10 points a game under Tomlin)...I have nothing good l to say about CIN though.
NYJ +3...Oak as a road fav is dicey...Oak as a road fav the week before a huge game vs KC is a bet against for me. I have nothing good to say about the Jets though.
DET -3.5...Haskins is a solid bet against...home field at WAS is worth zero. I have nothing good to say about the Lions though.
SEA -1...Philly played a good game last week...the defense is coming around but that offense is just so limited with only a few weapons. While I think SEA is overrated I think the Eagles Fly another game down the standings.
LAR +3...Too much, too soon for the these Ravens...Rams are surprisingly good against the run...if Lamar has to drop back and throw...we win. BAL is surprisingly bad against the run...and Goff is good when the rush game is working.