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Week 12 into Week 13: Player Advice (Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc.)

Date:
November 28, 2017

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) David Johnson – Memba him? If you’re out of it in dynasty – this should be your focal point…stripping him away from an owner maybe still in the race and needs/wants X for 2017 playoff push.

4) Mitchell Trubisky – I am seeing dynasty deals for Trubisky that are laughable the past week or two as people give up…it’s amazing how low the price has gotten. You want in on this before the Goff-esque turn happens in 2018.

3) Evan Engram – ‘Drops’!!! The evil word among fantasy GMs. OK, fine…I’ll take the 4.43 40-time TE who has run as top 5 scoring TE…as a rookie…I’ll take his ‘drops’ and all. Use the current backlash against him on ‘drops’ to make your discounted move.

2) Dak Prescott – Hear me out – The price hasn’t been this low since after his first start in 2016. As I’ve said…if the key to him being a top 3 fantasy QB, as he has been for about a 20+ game stretch before the Ezekiel suspension -- well, Ezekiel is coming back and I assume Dallas will always have a run game for him in the future. My mantra with Dak: Who cares what the catalyst is? People are selling him off offended that he stinks without Elliott…OK, Ezekiel is coming back in a few weeks. AND in this current crisis, Dak will finally not face an on fire defense the next 1-3 weeks. He’s had a rough schedule the past 3 games on top of the meltdown.

1) Jared Goff – I know…”But right off his big game?” People still do not believe. Sure, they know the stock is worth more now, but they are usually more than happy to ‘dump him’ on you. Still, a reasonable get for the ROS and for dynasty – but you should have already done this by now. All I hear from the media on Goff…McVay makes him/Goff isn’t that good. I’m telling you people do not believe in him at all…they think they have a sinking ship on their hands. They want to ‘sell high’/get what they can.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Sammy Watkins – Everyone still loves Watkins because they media told them to from day one. They just think he needs to find a place to go star. Ummm…if he couldn’t star in the leagues top 1-2-3 offense this year, how’s he going to fare in Oakland or wherever next year? Watkins is secretly a terrible WR. Good athlete, terrible technician who gives an effort…some of the time, but not most of the time. Nice game with a TD last week, and no Woods means maybe he’ll have another TD this week (so others think)? Cut and run with the best deal you can now.

4) Dede Westbrook – Dede and JuJu have the same thing – rookies with cool names that the media thinks are great but they’re just ‘OK’. JSS is actually good. DDW is a #3-4 NFL WR at best. He got heavy targets in a Week 12 game where Marqise Lee was taken away – they are not pushing Westbrook, he’s just there and got heavy targets last week. Keelan Cole is more important…and Cole is not useful so Westbrook might as well be dead in this passing game for fantasy. Wildly overrated.

3) Andy Dalton – He’s been on quite a roll under the new O-C, and when Matthew Berry pointed it out last week…then it’s jumped the shark. He had another 2 TDs this week. However, the road ahead is stiff – PIT-CHI-MIN. I know Dalton doesn’t yield a mint or anything but if you don’t need him and someone else is desperate…there is some mild Dalton love out there growing because of recent trends.

2) Keenan Allen – Two great games after several nightmare mediocre games. He’s good but if you can sell him as a top 7-12 fantasy asset…you sell high. CLE-WAS-KC the next three weeks…a lot different than the BUF-DAL party. Prior to this two-game spurt, he struggled with DEN-NE-JAX…as he should because he’s good, not great.

1) Julio Jones – Not saying to dump him, but coming off ‘one of those games’…you got peak Julio. JJ does this one-time a year now and it drives his overall averages up but he’s really average WR2-3 most weeks anymore. You sell Julio as a top 5 asset in all of fantasy, or you keep him. Simple as that.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Paul Richardson – The clear #2 WR for Seattle, and the Seahawks are about to hit a stretch where Doug Baldwin is going to get smothered – Richardson could be a strong WR2 with upside the next few weeks.

4) Derrick Henry – Will never be THE guy but should see 10+ carries in games ahead because Demarco is so terrible. 10-15 touches might be something...maybe…hopefully. Acquire and trade.

3) Marquise Goodwin – The 49ers #1 WR and he was working like that last week, catches all over…that + Garoppolo (if it happens) is MONEY. I think…

2) Josh Doctson – Has a TD last week, but should’ve had two…could’ve had three. He’s not getting a huge amount of targets consistently but the quality of them are amazing. He’s been flirting with multiple TDs in games for several games now. Dallas this week.

1) Kenyan Drake – I think Damien Williams will be out for the year…and that leaves the #1 job to the guy that should have had it all along. I think Drake has run as tough this season as I’ve ever seen him – college or pro years. You’ll get lots of touches here, sadly the Dolphins aren’t very good…but Drake can break plays.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Zay Jones – He is Tyrod’s #1 guy, and did have a TD this week. I love him, but I hate this passing game. Hard to trust Jones in any given week to have fantasy worthy output.

4) Eddie Lacy – 17 carries this past game and analysts are chirping…but 17 carries of crap is still crap. He’s awful.

3) Peyton Barber – I don’t care if he’s starting – he’s not good. He shouldn’t be on an active NFL roster bad.

2) Devontae Booker – Seems to be taking that lead job…but to what account? The Denver offense is a disaster and Booker is splitting minimal touches with C.J. Anderson. He’s something but nothing exciting.

1) Jamaal Williams – Good game vs. PIT. Had one broken play/long score of his 2 TDs. As the starter, Packers’ RB struggle…but more likely Ty Montgomery will get back and start stealing touches/the main job. Living on borrowed time with Williams in a not-very-good offense. Montgomery could be back today…or not for another week.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

*BONUS* 6) Senorise Perry – Someone has to back up the inevitable Kenyan Drake injury…right now, it’s Senorise Perry. He’s a tough runner with athleticism…not a super-prospect but has something to bring to the table. Kenyan Drake-lite. Super deep league…here’s a flyer for you, on me. *Got a concussion Week 12, and unsure on status…which may kill the buzz. De’Veon Smith = NO.

5) Tyrell Williams – Facing CLE this week, where Jason McCourty could be all on Keenan Allen and Tyrell steps up to a big game, especially after his sweet TD catch last week. Williams might have a little spurt of action the next two weeks if you're WR3 desperate. Unless McCourty goes after Williams…

4) Josh Reynolds – He could matter now. The Rams are playing some tougher defenses the next few weeks -- in that the opponents have some good cover guys to take away the #1 WR (ARI-PHI next 2 weeks), and the Rams will keep scoring…and they won’t have Woods, and Watkins will draw top coverage, and Goff will try to kill them with Kupp and Reynolds. But I especially like Reynolds against ARI…that’s the perfect set of circumstances. Reynolds is Josh Doctson-lite.

3) Cordarrelle Patterson – I would have him #1 on here if I thought I could trust Jack Del Rio. Patterson starting, if he starts, is big money for FF teams Week 13-14, potentially. He’s a guy you can grab off waivers and start him at WR Weeks 13-14 with Crabtree out…iF CPatt is starting for Oakland. They may pull some Seth Roberts BS. Patterson could change the Raiders season the next 2 weeks…and then back to the bench upon Crabtree’s return. This is CPs big chance…maybe. Consider it a 2-week rental if he truly is starting. If not, he’s a WR3 hopeful and daily play. As a Raiders’ starter he’s in WR2 territory.

2) Mike Davis – The best RB in the Seahawks is worth something. I love the guy. Hopefully, he is 100% this week – that’s the risk…that he’s not 100%.

1) Jimmy Garoppolo – I thought he’d start last week, but it looks like the CJB injury is going to push him in this week…and for the next decade.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Tyler Lockett – No catches on 1 target playing 46 snaps in a not so easy game vs. SF last week. Paul Richardson has clearly pulled away from him.

4) Tom Savage – Thought he showed signs in Week 11, but in Week 12 he had several quality moments…all erased by INTs under pressure/throwing into coverage. A small blip last week but back in the hole this week…and forever.

3) Jordy Nelson –  With Brett Hundley as the starting QB, Jordy has averaged: 2.6 rec. (5.1 targets), 20.6 yards, 0.0 TDs. You starting that? What’s going to make him suddenly viable? We all love Jordy but you can’t start him with Hundley. Hold for the Rodgers return, I guess?

2) Eddie Lacy/Thomas Rawls – Both suck and Mike Davis is coming to get them!

1) James White –  As predicted, now that Rex Burkhead is back…White is a Ghost

 

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**LAST WEEK’S NOTES**

 

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) Evan Engram – 1 catch game vs. KC, but many missed opportunities most not his fault. A team with two decent TEs might be willing to deal before the deadline. Dynasty – you have to build your future offense with this guy in it.

4) Jerick McKinnon – Seems like he is fading off a bit, but his snaps and touches are still good. A great RB2 that you can get as an RB3…or in some leagues a knucklehead might drop him.

3) Danny Woodhead – No major scoring in his return game from injury but I think 90% of Baltimore’s plays are throws to Woodhead…or it’s just in Flacco’s mind on a reel. Woodhead is going to be the new Duke Johnson/Chris Thompson-ish type PPR guy…possibly available as an RB2.5-3.0 valuation after a quiet return.

2) Tyreek Hill – The Chiefs are losing. Kareem Hunt has been fading. The media and fan pressure is ratcheting. In the NYG crisis, I saw Reid reach into the playbook for more innovative Hill plays like last year…and Tyreek is so damn good. He would have won them the game had they kept going to him. He’s so good and so undervalued. A desperate Andy Reid may hit the Tyreek panic button now…finally. 

1) Jared Goff – I can’t make myself any clearer. Price will dip again after the game v. MIN. He’s a pickup in redraft (great schedule ahead) and for sure dynasty.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Davante Adams – Pure speculation…if the Packers move from Hundley, we’re potentially screwed with Adams, I think. Joe Callahan is a decent no-name QB but we don’t know who he favors as a WR…might be Jordy. I have a feeling it’s more Jordy than Adams.

4) JuJu Smith-Schuster – There are 3-5 names every week popping up on waivers as WR3 types with WR2 upside. JuJu just has ‘name recognition’. He gets a lot of media chatter, favorability. Sell him as a WR2 or better if you can. He’s just ‘good’, not a star.

3) Jay Ajayi – I’ve had him here for most of the season, and it’s been the right call…and it still is. The media loves this guy…thinks it’s the greatest trade ever. Week 11 showed he’s part of an RBBC, as predicted. Someone believes Ajayi is just ‘getting used to the playbook’ and is destined to be a 15+ carry a game guy. He won’t be. Sell hot to that person.

2) Keenan Allen – A terrible season until last week, then he rocked a sad Bills team. Cash in on it because most teams are aware Rivers is trying to force the ball to Allen and game plan to halt it (like most have this season). More tough games ahead than not, but Week 13 v. CLE is nice.

1) Demaryius Thomas – After becoming a WR3 type FF-asset for the past 15+ games prior to Osweiler taking over, and barely scoring any TDs…DT has had TD catches in three straight games with Brock. I believe the Broncos will be turning to Paxton Lynch this week or next…and then the Thomas train rolls back off the tracks. Cash in on his past few weeks if you can…if someone buys him as a WR2 value or better.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Patriots DST – MIA-BUF-MIA, then PIT, BUF Weeks 12-16. The Patriots have held their last 6 opponents to 17 or fewer points in each game.

4) Josh Doctson – As we noted last week…the Josh Doctson era is almost upon us…a WR 1.5-2.0 type WR. Each week he advances a little more. He’s just about to ‘arrive’.

3) Andy Dalton – TD passes in a game since the new O-C took over: 2-4-1-2-2-0-2-3 (2.0 per game) and a 4-3 record. Cincy is sneaky good. Their losses have come against top NFL teams. They have a shot to get into this playoff race…and they get Cleveland this week…so, Dalton will be a top QB play for the week. You need a boost this week/have QB1 with a horrible matchup? Dalton may be your play. Last game against CLE – 4 TD/0 INT.

2) Jimmy Garoppolo – I don’t know what to expect from him coming over just a few weeks ago, but I know this – he’s a major talent who will be working on a team with an offensive-minded head coach…and on a team ready to throw a lot in shootouts/deficits. Debut, assuming, will be Week 12 vs. Seattle…and that’s not as daunting as it used to be. He’s more an investment for the future…if you need a QB now go Dalton.

1) Samaje Perine – Well, now the world is in on it…I hope you were able to act ahead last week or hold him through the dark times of 2017. The Jordan Howard story that I foretold in the summer of 2017…it just got lit. He looked exactly like I scouted him pre-NFL Draft in this game – he finally feels comfortable and is working with confidence. Jay Gruden has no choice now…Chris Thompson is out for the year. This is the Waiver of the Week/in many weeks.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Austin Traylor – 4 catches in his Broncos debut…added to the team due to a rash of TE injuries. A slow, blocking TE who had a couple catches in his debut. I don’t see any reason to get excited…especially with this passing game.

4) Danny Amendola – Big Week 11 and Chris Hogan’s status is unknown/out…so, it seems like Amendola would pop. He’s been more down than up for fantasy this season. There are better WR3 options out there…and if Hogan is back, forget about Amendola.

3) Chad Williams – Another Bruce Arians problem child prospect. Arians has been saying he’s going to give Williams more chances this week with John Brown out. Williams isn’t that great and isn’t ready for this…and has Blaine Gabbert at QB. Trade this hype in dynasty if you have him…for anything.

2) Austin Ekeler – I like the guy. I get giving him a shot for your fantasy team, I just don’t think the Chargers are going to give him a fair shot. You can hope for a TD next week, but the odds are a low-touch disappointment more than 10+ touches and a score.

1) Paxton Lynch – He’s going to be named the starter this week or next, I think this week. He’s not very good and this is his tryout for 2018 period…because Denver has nothing to lose. I didn’t see any progress this preseason.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) T.J. Logan – Due to be able to come off I.R. and Andre Ellington was dropped…I think this is why. He should get a decent look as the season collapses and if it’s clear DJ isn’t coming back.

4) Kenny Stills – ONLY if Matt Moore is at QB. Moore loves Stills in the passing game.

3) Devontae Booker – Worked his way to a bigger role last week, a split with C.J. Anderson essentially. I was a few weeks too early with this call, then gave up a week too early.

2) Mike Davis – I said he might be the #1 grab at RB of the week last week…and you saw a glimpse why on MNF – clearly, he’s Seattle’s best RB. It’s congested there but he might be their new #1…let’s find out more about his groin injury first.

1) Marquise Goodwin – The #1 WR for the 49ers. Jimmy G. likely to be at QB. Target totals in his last 6 games – 11-5-8-3-8-2 (6.2 per game…most of that with Garcon playing). 65 or more yards in a game in four of his last 6 games.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Kelvin Benjamin – He’ll miss a few weeks. Why would he rush back? Bad team. Bad passing game. So-so WR. Trade away for whatever.

4) Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley – You’d think one of them would have stepped up in this Dallas crisis…umm, nope.

3) Tyrell Williams – A scoring party for LAC last week…and Keenan Allen got 13 targets, and Tyrell got 1.

2) Jamaal Charles – Devontae Booker has moved up into a split with CJA, and Jamaal is out in the cold.

1) Javorious Allen – With Danny Woodhead back, Buck Allen’s services are no longer required. 

 

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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