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Week 13 into Week 14: Player Advice (Trade For/Away, Free Agency, etc.)

Date:
December 5, 2017

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

*I get most people’s redraft trade deadline is past, but…

5) David Johnson – Memba him? If you’re out of it in dynasty – this should be your focal point…stripping him away from an owner maybe still in the race and needs/wants X for 2017 playoff push.

4) Samaje Perine – The rest of this season should be an audition for him getting 15-20+ carries a game to prep for 2018. Could be an RB1.5-2.0 shot in the FF playoffs for an RB2.5-3.0 price? Also, for dynasty – an investment in a guy who might be an RB1 next season.

3) Sterling Shepard – Kinda fell between the cracks the past few weeks with migraines, etc., but if Eli is back you want in on this for redraft ROS.

2) Jimmy Garoppolo – For your dynasty future, this is one of your last chances at a reasonable deal. No TD passes, and no one cares about the 49ers…they will soon enough and really will care in 2018.

1) Adam Thielen – People still don’t really believe. Every time he has a down FF-scoring game they think reality is setting in. Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous WR in the NFL. Adam Thielen is the BEST WR in the NFL…he just doesn’t have Big Ben throwing to him. Routes like Antonio. Size and athleticism like old-Julio (not current Julio). Great hands. He has it all except the surrounding offense. Make the investment for the future in dynasty…make a play for redraft if you can escape a trouble via schedule WR ahead.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Jamaal Williams – With Aaron Jones back – this is a split coming, or Jones takes the wheel. Long-term, Williams is not the answer. Trade him hot if you can.

4) Marvin Jones – IF the reports on Matt Stafford are sketchy but he’s going to give it a go…maybe you trade sideways out of Marvin into something safer for the playoff stretch.

3) Dede Westbrook – Marqise Lee you want from the Jags passing game, Dede you don’t-don’t. Will be a forgotten WR4 soon.

2) Dez Bryant – Scored a TD last week on TNF. It was pretty and on national TV. Maybe that memory can allow you to dump this guy for WR1.5-2.0 fluff value and get away from him. Hasn’t had over 75 yards in a game in his last 8 games. 1 TD in last 6 games.

1) Peyton Barber – No way. There is not a new star RB here. I cannot believe he rushed for 100+ yards Week 13. Facing weak run-D with Detroit Week 14 – so he will generate a lot of buzz. If you have him, trade him. If you have free agent opportunity – sign him to trade him if trades can still go on in your league. He’s a mediocre RB. If you are RB desperate…you can try him v. DET but then run after that.

 

Free Agent names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5)  -- Honestly, I don’t have a 5th one I feel good about…so I’m not putting on just to put one on.

4) Cameron Brate – Winston + Brate = I can’t make this any clearer. I hope you got him as a TE2 last week if you need one.

3) Marquise Goodwin – Garoppolo’s #1 WR weapon…and it was ‘good’ in their debut.

2) Mike Davis – The obvious new #1 RB for Seattle. He’s very talented and can catch passes + Seattle has their best O-Line configuration healthy. Ecstatic with the potential upside here.

1) Josh Gordon – A guy with #1 WR skills/athleticism. He plays on a team with a QB firing it to him with no regard – any one-on-one coverage and Kizer is throwing it. The schedule ahead works – GB-BAL-CHI. I didn’t think they’d go so all-in on Gordon right away, I was wrong. He looks fine/normal running routes. Only Kizer’s inaccuracies will hurt. CLE will be down a lot and throwing a lot. He’ll see 10+ targets a game every week.

  

Free Agent names to mistrust:

5) Josh McCown – Josh has been on a great run but has at DEN, at NO, LAC his final three games. Not great. Hurts Kearse and Robby as well.

4) Derrick Henry – Was barely a factor in Week 13. This is Demarco Murray’s scene and he looked better (still bad) than he has all year last week. Henry popped a late, long TD against a stacked defense trying desperately to stop the drive/clock.

3) Blake Bortles – Some people are whispering Bortles as a sleeper because 300+ yards and 2 TDs last week, and the schedule ahead is not so bad (SEA-HOU-SF). I just can’t trust Bortles…ever.

2) Kerwynn Williams – 90+ rushing yards and looked good doing it. My fear is – if AP is back, you can forget Williams ever existed. If I knew AP was out I’d buy-in a little, but I assume AP gets back in.

1) Tion Green – 4.79 40-time…that’s like a slow fullback. He’s not taking the lead in this backfield, and if he does…it won’t be for long.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Jets DST – Denver has announced Trevor Siemian starting…and that’s getting to be Kizer-worthy of an auto-start for the opposing DST. When the Jets have faced bad QBs…they’ve been pretty solid on defense. They’ve held MIA, JAX, CLE, BUF, TB to 21 points or less. They frustrated New England in Week 6. They only allowed 21 offensive to CAR two weeks ago (but gave up a D TD and PR TD). They got thumped early by KC and then shut them down before Tyreek struck them. Denver has no Tyreek…and no O-Line and no run game and no QB…

4) Stephen Anderson –  If you’re TE desperate, I suspect C.J. Fiedorowicz goes on IR and opens things up for Anderson who had 12 targets last week.

3) Trey Burton – If Ertz is out, Burton is a TE1 talent and projection for the week; simple as that.

2) Aaron Jones – He will wrestle that job from Williams at some point. Likely, a split between them but if Jones is pretty healthy…he is clearly superior.

1) Trent Taylor – Final warning because the world is starting to sniff around on this and they’re going to soon discover what we’ve been talking about for weeks – Taylor is Garoppolo’s ‘Edelman’. Goodwin is his ‘Cooks’.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing (for this season)…

5) Corey Davis – The Tennessee passing game is going into the dumpster every week. Davis had a chance to shine with Rishard Matthews out but instead, he’s disappeared. I’m not impressed with Davis so far. Rishard back this week would make it even worse for Davis’s targets.

4) Seth Roberts – This guy is a joke. If Amari Cooper misses the week…there will be Roberts and Johnny Holton talk…and man are they not good at being WRs. I get they may be forced targets but I want no part of it. I’ll take my WR desperation business elsewhere.

3) Mitchell Trubisky – Love him beyond words, but he is meaningless with John Fox at the helm. A coaching change might resurrect this a bit but until then…

2) Vernon Davis – Jordan Reed’s been gone for like a million years and he has not mattered for FF hardly at all.

1) Jordan Reed – He’s been gone for like a million years. If he’s not practicing again this week and ‘game-time decision’ talk again -- then, I’m out. I’m pretty much out anyway. What? Reed is coming back for a lost season…to do what? He had like one good game this season anyway. They should just shut him down.

 

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**LAST WEEK’S NOTES**

 

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) David Johnson – Memba him? If you’re out of it in dynasty – this should be your focal point…stripping him away from an owner maybe still in the race and needs/wants X for 2017 playoff push.

4) Mitchell Trubisky – I am seeing dynasty deals for Trubisky that are laughable the past week or two as people give up…it’s amazing how low the price has gotten. You want in on this before the Goff-esque turn happens in 2018.

3) Evan Engram – ‘Drops’!!! The evil word among fantasy GMs. OK, fine…I’ll take the 4.43 40-time TE who has run as top 5 scoring TE…as a rookie…I’ll take his ‘drops’ and all. Use the current backlash against him on ‘drops’ to make your discounted move.

2) Dak Prescott – Hear me out – The price hasn’t been this low since after his first start in 2016. As I’ve said…if the key to him being a top 3 fantasy QB, as he has been for about a 20+ game stretch before the Ezekiel suspension -- well, Ezekiel is coming back and I assume Dallas will always have a run game for him in the future. My mantra with Dak: Who cares what the catalyst is? People are selling him off offended that he stinks without Elliott…OK, Ezekiel is coming back in a few weeks. AND in this current crisis, Dak will finally not face an on fire defense the next 1-3 weeks. He’s had a rough schedule the past 3 games on top of the meltdown.

1) Jared Goff – I know…”But right off his big game?” People still do not believe. Sure, they know the stock is worth more now, but they are usually more than happy to ‘dump him’ on you. Still, a reasonable get for the ROS and for dynasty – but you should have already done this by now. All I hear from the media on Goff…McVay makes him/Goff isn’t that good. I’m telling you people do not believe in him at all…they think they have a sinking ship on their hands. They want to ‘sell high’/get what they can.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Sammy Watkins – Everyone still loves Watkins because they media told them to from day one. They just think he needs to find a place to go star. Ummm…if he couldn’t star in the leagues top 1-2-3 offense this year, how’s he going to fare in Oakland or wherever next year? Watkins is secretly a terrible WR. Good athlete, terrible technician who gives an effort…some of the time, but not most of the time. Nice game with a TD last week, and no Woods means maybe he’ll have another TD this week (so others think)? Cut and run with the best deal you can now.

4) Dede Westbrook – Dede and JuJu have the same thing – rookies with cool names that the media thinks are great but they’re just ‘OK’. JSS is actually good. DDW is a #3-4 NFL WR at best. He got heavy targets in a Week 12 game where Marqise Lee was taken away – they are not pushing Westbrook, he’s just there and got heavy targets last week. Keelan Cole is more important…and Cole is not useful so Westbrook might as well be dead in this passing game for fantasy. Wildly overrated.

3) Andy Dalton – He’s been on quite a roll under the new O-C, and when Matthew Berry pointed it out last week…then it’s jumped the shark. He had another 2 TDs this week. However, the road ahead is stiff – PIT-CHI-MIN. I know Dalton doesn’t yield a mint or anything but if you don’t need him and someone else is desperate…there is some mild Dalton love out there growing because of recent trends.

2) Keenan Allen – Two great games after several nightmare mediocre games. He’s good but if you can sell him as a top 7-12 fantasy asset…you sell high. CLE-WAS-KC the next three weeks…a lot different than the BUF-DAL party. Prior to this two-game spurt, he struggled with DEN-NE-JAX…as he should because he’s good, not great.

1) Julio Jones – Not saying to dump him, but coming off ‘one of those games’…you got peak Julio. JJ does this one-time a year now and it drives his overall averages up but he’s really average WR2-3 most weeks anymore. You sell Julio as a top 5 asset in all of fantasy, or you keep him. Simple as that.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Paul Richardson – The clear #2 WR for Seattle, and the Seahawks are about to hit a stretch where Doug Baldwin is going to get smothered – Richardson could be a strong WR2 with upside the next few weeks.

4) Derrick Henry – Will never be THE guy but should see 10+ carries in games ahead because Demarco is so terrible. 10-15 touches might be something...maybe…hopefully. Acquire and trade.

3) Marquise Goodwin – The 49ers #1 WR and he was working like that last week, catches all over…that + Garoppolo (if it happens) is MONEY. I think…

2) Josh Doctson – Has a TD last week, but should’ve had two…could’ve had three. He’s not getting a huge amount of targets consistently but the quality of them are amazing. He’s been flirting with multiple TDs in games for several games now. Dallas this week.

1) Kenyan Drake – I think Damien Williams will be out for the year…and that leaves the #1 job to the guy that should have had it all along. I think Drake has run as tough this season as I’ve ever seen him – college or pro years. You’ll get lots of touches here, sadly the Dolphins aren’t very good…but Drake can break plays.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Zay Jones – He is Tyrod’s #1 guy, and did have a TD this week. I love him, but I hate this passing game. Hard to trust Jones in any given week to have fantasy worthy output.

4) Eddie Lacy – 17 carries this past game and analysts are chirping…but 17 carries of crap is still crap. He’s awful.

3) Peyton Barber – I don’t care if he’s starting – he’s not good. He shouldn’t be on an active NFL roster bad.

2) Devontae Booker – Seems to be taking that lead job…but to what account? The Denver offense is a disaster and Booker is splitting minimal touches with C.J. Anderson. He’s something but nothing exciting.

1) Jamaal Williams – Good game vs. PIT. Had one broken play/long score of his 2 TDs. As the starter, Packers’ RB struggle…but more likely Ty Montgomery will get back and start stealing touches/the main job. Living on borrowed time with Williams in a not-very-good offense. Montgomery could be back today…or not for another week.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

*BONUS* 6) Senorise Perry – Someone has to back up the inevitable Kenyan Drake injury…right now, it’s Senorise Perry. He’s a tough runner with athleticism…not a super-prospect but has something to bring to the table. Kenyan Drake-lite. Super deep league…here’s a flyer for you, on me. *Got a concussion Week 12, and unsure on status…which may kill the buzz. De’Veon Smith = NO.

5) Tyrell Williams – Facing CLE this week, where Jason McCourty could be all on Keenan Allen and Tyrell steps up to a big game, especially after his sweet TD catch last week. Williams might have a little spurt of action the next two weeks. Unless McCourty goes after Williams…

4) Josh Reynolds – He could matter now. The Rams are playing some tougher defenses the next few weeks -- in that the opponents have some good cover guys to take away the #1 WR (ARI-PHI next 2 weeks), and the Rams will keep scoring…and they won’t have Woods, and Watkins will draw top coverage, and Goff will try to kill them with Kupp and Reynolds. But I especially like Reynolds against ARI…that’s the perfect set of circumstances. Reynolds is Josh Doctson-lite.

3) Cordarrelle Patterson – I would have him #1 on here if I thought I could trust Jack Del Rio. Patterson starting, if he starts, is big money for FF teams Week 13-14, potentially. He’s a guy you can grab off waivers and start him at WR Weeks 13-14 with Crabtree out…iF CPatt is starting for Oakland. They may pull some Seth Roberts BS. Patterson could change the Raiders season the next 2 weeks…and then back to the bench upon Crabtree’s return. This is CPs big chance…maybe. Consider it a 2-week rental if he truly is starting. If not, he’s a WR3 hopeful and daily play. As a Raiders’ starter he’s in WR2 territory.

2) Mike Davis – The best RB in the Seahawks is worth something. I love the guy. Hopefully, he is 100% this week – that’s the risk…that he’s not 100%.

1) Jimmy Garoppolo – I thought he’d start last week, but it looks like the CJB injury is going to push him in this week…and for the next decade.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Tyler Lockett – No catches on 1 target playing 46 snaps in a not so easy game vs. SF last week. Paul Richardson has clearly pulled away from him.

4) Tom Savage – Thought he showed signs in Week 11, but in Week 12 he had several quality moments…all erased by INTs under pressure/throwing into coverage. A small blip last week but back in the hole this week…and forever.

3) Jordy Nelson –  With Brett Hundley as the starting QB, Jordy has averaged: 2.6 rec. (5.1 targets), 20.6 yards, 0.0 TDs. You starting that? What’s going to make him suddenly viable? We all love Jordy but you can’t start him with Hundley. Hold for the Rodgers return, I guess?

2) Eddie Lacy/Thomas Rawls – Both suck and Mike Davis is coming to get them!

1) James White –  As predicted, now that Rex Burkhead is back…White is a Ghost

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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