*The Top 5 Trade For/Away, Waivers/Free agents, etc. will post tomorrow pre-noonET.
For now, here's the instant reaction to Sunday, subject to change when I go through the tape fully a second time…
-- Devonta Freeman (12-74-0, 1-7-0/2) back from injury and right back in as the lead guy. Tevin Coleman (8-22-0, 3-27-0/6) is a weak RB3 option with Freeman back.
-- Xavier Rhodes will shut your #1 WR down…Julio Jones (2-24-0/6) the latest victim. Devin Funchess next week and A.J. Green the next.
-- Despite the loss, and being down a couple of CBs…the Falcons DST was more than solid here. They’ve been coming on as of late. Week 14 vs. NO is not good, but then Week 15 at TB with 11 days off between NO and TB games (for those looking at Week 15 troubles with NE v. PIT).
-- Rex Burkhead (12-78-2, 3-25-0/4) is almost assumed for a TD each week now…either by ground or air. Now, 5 TDs in his last 4 games. 6 TDs in his last 7 games.
-- Bad time for an egg from Tom Brady (21-30 for 258 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) and Brandin Cooks (1-5-0, 2-17-0/3). No issues, just the Pats ran for 191 yards and controlled the Bills from the ground.
-- Possible ‘no’ Tyrod Taylor Week 14…due to injury and/or ‘McDermott’. IND and MIA DSTs facing BUF the next 2 weeks…hard to trust either of them -- but for the desperate this might work IF Nathan Peterman appears.
-- Nice debut by Jimmy Garoppolo (26-37 for 293 yards, 0 TD/1 INT). No big fantasy day because they couldn’t cash in on TDs (5 FGs) but Jimmy Franchise had them driving all game. His INT was off a leaping catch/completion near the goal line that the defender then stole from the receiver as they crashed to the ground.
-- Like I said…Trent Taylor (6-92-0/6) is the Wes Welker/Julian Edelman for the Brady-like Garoppolo.
-- Marquise Goodwin (8-99-0/8) looked very good with Garoppolo as well.
-- No Bears’ notes…nothing new happened and they were once again totally ridiculous with their game plan. John Fox has to be fired before season end, right?
-- You know your defense is terrible if Peyton Barber (23-102-0, 4-41-0/4) runs for 100+ yards against you. I would not trust this to ever happen again with Barber. I can’t believe it happened once.
-- Teams have been tearing up the Bucs pass defense…so Brett Hundley (13-22 for 84 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) having this type of game is ridiculous. He’s not a play against CLE next week.
-- Aaron Jones (1-20-1) came in for his one carry in OT and ran for the game-winning TD. Jamaal Williams and Jones should be in a split workload role or hot hand next week.
-- Typical backfield work for TEN…DeMarco Murray (11-66-0, 2-13-0/2) started and played most of the important parts of the game. Derrick Henry (11-109-1) took carries late trying to salt it away and sprung one when the defense overstacked in a desperate attempt to get the ball back.
-- No QB looks worse but yet puts up plausible FF numbers most weeks than Marcus Mariota (15-23 for 150 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-23-1). The offense, this passing game continues to degenerate weekly.
-- TE Stephen Anderson (5-79-1/12) saw 12 targets in this game. Last week, in a critical game…0 targets. Anderson has some talent, in a Jordan Reed-esque kind away, but his targeting and output is erratic and mostly TE2-3 worthy. He’s not likely a future star.
-- Trevor Siemian (19-41 for 200 yards, 0 TD/3 INTs) looked so good the first two weeks of the season and he’s been dreadful ever since – the worst-looking QB in the NFL now…worse than DeShone Kizer, and that’s saying something – which means the Jets are a legit DST for Week 14.
-- The Devontae Booker (2-8-0, 1-0-0/1) as lead RB storyline died in this game. He has not been relevant for weeks and had his worst game of the year here.
-- The Kenyan Drake (23-120-01, 3-21-0/5) performance was not a fluke. This was why he was our #1 rated free agent pickup last week. Drake will have RB1 potential with three great games ahead – NE-BUF-KC. ASSUMING Damien Williams doesn’t return, and we don’t think he will.
-- OK, Kareem Hunt (9-40-0, 3-23-0/5) has officially crashed and burned. I warned the world they were getting too far out here, but recently I thought people were getting too nervous/down…that there was value because Hunt was still beloved by Andy Reid. However, Hunt has become so bad I can’t defend him as even an RB2.
-- This loss…it might force a QB change, but Alex Smith had 366 yards passing and 4 TD/0 INT…hard to blame him. The defensive coordinator Bob Sutton may get fired but I think Smith lives another week. It’s going to be brutal in KC this week. I’d say a QB change is 20% likely this week, and I would guess Week 16, after a loss to LAC in Week 15 would be the time for the switch.
-- Jermaine Kearse (9-157-0/10) has back-to-back 100+ yard games as the Jets passing game has been terrific the past couple of weeks. Hard to trust him at Denver next week…even though Denver’s defense has fallen apart. Still great CBs and Aqib Talib back next week.
-- Marqise Lee (7-86-1/10) was terrific in this game…and he as a great schedule to finish out with SEA-HOU-SF. He’s a legit WR1 opportunity in PPR for the ROS/the FF playoffs.
-- Dede Westbrook (6-78-0/9) had another game with heavy targeting. I don’t see any ‘wow’, just a guy working in space as defenses stack the run and passing lanes are open everywhere. I totally dismissed Dede but I admit he’s now a WR3 long-shot hopeful in PPR week-to-week. He’s just not my cup of tea.
-- Marlon Mack (6-46-0, 1-8-0/2) was the only spark the Colts had a few weeks ago, but the Colts have totally moved away from him. He could be the Colts’ Alvin Kamara-esque option…but…they’re not firing this whole coaching staff in a few weeks for no reason.
-- Tion Green (11-51-1) should not be getting this kind of look over Zach Zenner…it’s beyond my comprehension why this coaching staff even wastes roster space on Zenner or Dwayne Washington if they don’t want to use them. Fantasy analysts are going to coo over Green this week…don’t fall for it. He came into this game, took a carry that sprung for 33 yards and then was a snooze otherwise. A 4.79 40-time runner with 7.38 three-cone…no way he’s making it for long in the NFL.
-- If Matt Stafford is out/hurt for Week 14 the Tampa Bay Bucs DST isn’t a crazy sleeper. Jake Rudock is OK, but not going to have the same continuity in the offense…and the Lions have no run game so he would be in some real trouble. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones would seriously be affected.
-- Danny Woodhead (3-9-0, 2-14-0/2) has been involved but no real factor upon his return from injury. Seemed like an RB 2-3 for PPR but is hard to see as an RB3 based on recent activity.
-- Keenan Allen (10-105-1/14) had his third 10+ catch and 100+ yard game in a row. It helped that Jason McCourty went off of him for some stretch. I marvel at the fact that everyone knows they are throwing to Allen and yet there he sits with single coverage on him. I guess the Browns know what they’re doing…
-- DeShone Kizer immediately ditched Corey Coleman (0-0-0/4) as his favorite target in order to throw wildly, blindly to Josh Gordon (4-85-0). Gordon looked fine…it’s Kizer that sucks. You can forget Corey Coleman the rest of 2017.
-- The Chargers DST doesn’t have juicy matchups ahead, but they’re not terrible…WAS and at KC. Washington’s done for the playoffs and their O-Line is way banged up. KC is nothing special either. Week 16 at the Jets might be their most complicated game for the rest of 2017.
-- Evan Engram (7-99-1/8)…so much for the ‘drops’ problem. He was grabbing passes all over. His best day of 2017 to my eye. Congrats to Geno Smith for actually getting Engram the ball more downfield not just sit down passes over the middle. It also helps the Raiders are a grease fire of a team/defense.
-- Per usual, the Raiders ignored Cordarrelle Petterson (4-97-0/4) until late, and then he bailed them out again with a big 4th-quarter play just like last week. The Raiders coaching staff is a joke. Patterson has saved them with big plays in at least 4 games this season…and won’t touch the ball next week most likely.
-- The Dallas DST with Sean Lee back taking on Geno Smith next week…you can use that Dallas DST. Geno was not great here…it’s just the Raiders are embarrassing.
-- Alvin Kamara (9-60-2, 5-66-0/6) is literally untackleable right now. He may be the most elusive runner in football right now. He may be the single best RB in fantasy right now. Long-term, I don’t think this holds up but he’s better than I thought right now. I’ll drag my feet on going ga-ga because RBs can get on a little roll and head-fake the populace…when the scouting doesn’t match the on-field for a stretch. Just like when I said Kareem Hunt wasn't as good as those first few weeks. I’m all-in that Kamara is a top 5 RB every week right now. I
-- I worried back in the preseason that Drew Brees’s (25-34 for 269 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) would dip due to an increased running game, but I didn’t think it would hit this hard. 7 TDs/3 INTs in his last 7 games…1.0 TD passes per game.
-- The Carolina DST is slipping…31 and 27 points allowed their last two games. They run into trouble any time they face a good+ QB. They have high-functioning Minnesota and then possible Aaron Rodgers after that the next two weeks. I don’t think you can roll with them for the rest of the fantasy season. Something is wrong.
-- Wow, Kerwynn Williams (16-97-0) had the game I was hoping about 10+ weeks ago when he had a chance to seize the job. He looked terrific here. However, if AP can walk…he’ll start next week and take 20+ carries (40 yards).
-- Sorry, on the Josh Reynolds (2-6-0/6) enthusiasm not paying off. Just note, Reynolds had an easy short catch and run TD but slipped and fell making the turn and landed about a yard shot. He should have at least had 1 TD here.
-- Ricky Seals-Jones (2-44-0/5) came back to earth in this one, as predicted. You knew defenses were going to start accounting for him. They did here.
-- Mike Davis (16-64-0, 4-37-0/4) is not a ‘running back of convenience’. He is a legit starting RB in the NFL. He was terrific against the #1 run defense in the NFL going into that game. Some of the moves Davis made…exquisite. Compare and contrast to Philly’s human wet bar of soap Jay Ajayi (9-35-0, 3-11-0/4)…it’s not even worth comparing. The Eagles, and everyone in football got snookered on Ajayi to Philly.
-- If Zach Ertz (2-24-0/4) is out…Trey Burton (4-42-0/7) is a TE1 Week 14. Which makes me think – even if Ertz isn’t out…you Ertz owners should have Burton as your TE2 going into the playoffs, no? A rare situation where a high-end fantasy TE has an equal to/better than working behind him.
-- Doug Baldwin (5-84-0/7) owners…brace yourself for the Week 14 at Jacksonville. Have a Plan B in these critical of weeks.