Blazing Five YTD:
38-25-2 (60.3%) = Savage (3-2)
33-30-2 (52.4%) = Katz (3-2)
33-30-2 (52.4%) = Rabbitt (2-3)
32-32-1 (50.0%) = Colin (1-4)
31-33 (48.4%) = RC (2-3)
29-35-1 (45.3%) = Skol (2-3)
I don’t trust my own picks right now, so they’re on here for entertainment purposes. You should follow Savage’s picks – he’s killing it. I’m just trying to find my way.
One good 4-1 week can pull me up. And I am in-line to beat Colin Cowherd at his own game for the first time in a few years, but I didn’t want it to happen like this! Four more weeks to make a move…time is running out.
COLIN: ARI, BAL, DEN, CLE, KC
SEA at LAR (PK)
I’m starting to love this bet – I am enticed by the notion that the Rams are quietly getting their act together in the midsection of the season, but it’s hidden by the blowout loss to Baltimore (not a crime) and the blowout win over Arizona (that we blame on Arizona). What if the Rams are to blame for humiliating Arizona? On top of that, Seattle is a weak 10-2 team…several close game wins like their early season Rams win where Zuerlein missed a chip shot FG at the buzzer.
DET at MIN (-13.0)
Margins of victory for the Vikings at home this season: 16, 20, 18, 10, 4.
The 10 to the Redskins where they just mailed in a game running the clock out but were totally dominant. The 4-point win where they were down huge to Denver at the half and then mounted one of the top comebacks of 2019 to win it. They face a bottom of the barrel offense and defense here in a must-win game this week – I think they lay it on Detroit.
After a loss, this season, MIN has won their next game by 20, 18, and 4…the 4 was the Denver huge comeback at home. Minny will win, we just need it by 13+.
TEN at OAK (+2.5)
Tennessee could come into this game down two CBs, including their best one (Adoree). It’s a playoff game for both teams, essentially. I’ll take the home team due to play well over the road one that has been a bit lucky of late. Their luck has to run out soon.
KC at NE (-3.0)
I just think the Pats are frauds and KC is not great but is better than NE and comes in knowing it and not afraid. Two teams exposed of late – Dallas and New England. What do they have in common…the easy early season schedule that got everyone all excited but was masking issues.
PIT at ARI (+2.5)
I think Arizona’s issues last week were: (1) Teams off a BYE can really suck this year…it’s like they lose their football minds with a week off. (2) The Rams as much as anything else.
Arizona is due to play well, and the Steelers off an emotional game they didn’t necessarily rule in…I like the home team vs. the long road trip team with no offense.
SKOL (from Bet The Close Podcast on iTunes, etc.)
WAS +12.5...I don’t love...or even like Haskins...but GB has CHI next week so I’m rolling with them not covering a big number this week.
DEN +9...I don’t love...or even like D.Lock...but HOU has TEN next week so I’m rolling with them not covering a big number this week.
CIN +7...I don’t love...or even like the tremendous support the dog is getting here...but I feel like the motivated Bengals want revenge for both of last years beat downs...I’m not sure what the Browns want.
ARI +2.5...I don’t love...or even like the way Kyler is playing the last few weeks...but just no to PIT being road favorites.
OAK +2.5...I don’t love...or even like the Raiders...but just no to TEN being road favorites.
Jaguars +3 - I don't understand how the Chargers keep getting favored on the road. Their road wins are against Miami with Josh Rosen starting and the Bears, a one-point game that Matt Nagy basically gave away. The benching of Foles reminds me a lot of what happened in St. Louis, where he got benched for Case Keenum. It's not that Minshew or Keenum are necessarily better than Foles, they're just more mobile and therefore have a chance behind a bad offensive line. The Jaguars fans love Minshew, so I think he'll be able to rally his team in front of the home crowd.
Jets -5.5 - The Jets seem hard to figure out until you look at their home/road splits. Excluding games started by Luke Falk, they're a respectable 3-2 at home with wins over Dallas and Oakland. They're 1-4 on the road with their only win over Washington. They're a young team, so my theory is that they haven't figured out how to play consistently and competitively on the road. Miami has been blown out in 4 out of 5 road games, so I think the Jets can win by 10+ here.
Browns -7 - This line is being driven down due to speculation that the Browns may quit now that they're effectively eliminated from the playoffs. I don't know... Baker doesn't strike me as a quitter. The rest of the team hasn't seemed to care about the playoffs all year, so why should they start now? The Browns can win this game by 20 if they want, and I think that's what they'll do.
Rams pk - I think the perceived downfall of the Rams is partly because their schedule is much harder than last year. They've played 4 top 10 defenses and average 10.5 points in those games. They average 30.1 points against everyone else. Seattle's defense is improving but still not very good, so I think we see the "good Rams" show up here.
Eagles -9.5 - RC pointed out how flukey Eagles/Dolphins game was in his recap. The Eagles were up 14 early in the 2nd half when Fitzmagic took over the game. I don't see Eli being able to do the same thing and I expect the Eagle to play like their season is on the line, because it pretty much is.