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Week 14 into Week 15: Player Advice (Trade For/Away, Free Agency, etc.)

Date:
December 12, 2017

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

*I get most of the redraft trade deadlines have passed, but looking more at dynasty names…

5) David Johnson – Just keeping him in front of you the last few weeks. If you’re out of it in dynasty – this should be your focal point…stripping him away from an owner maybe still in the race and needs/wants X for a 2017 title push.

4) Adam Thielen – The best WR in football, while most people think he’s a future WR2 waiting to ‘burn’ the current owner when he falls back to earth. He’s oddly, reasonably available for how great he really is.

Let me give you a trade concept – Aaron Rodgers announced as ‘back’ officially – Jordy Nelson for Adam Thielen foundation of a deal to get Adam Thielen.

3) Jimmy Garoppolo – In another game, Garoppolo is going to be all the rage. He is SOOO good. He starts getting TDs to go with the yards, etc., and the FF-price is going to blast off. The full hysteria hasn’t hit yet, but it’s starting. The football establishment still doesn’t like Jared Goff nor Mitchell Trubisky…but Garoppolo has the ‘Patriots seal of approval’. They are going to like him so the masses will too. You have time on Trubisky…you might run out of it on Garoppolo soon for a reasonable deal.

2) Josh Gordon – Hear me out. I get that those of you who have held on for a while would like to cash out before you get burned (maybe burned ‘again’). It makes sense. You’ve been a jilted lover on Gordon…why not take a profit and run? I support that decision too, but come on…why do all fantasy ‘things’ have to be couched in the negative? We always desire to trade players ‘before they burn us’. The player you want in exchange hasn’t been on your team to ‘burn you’ yet, so they seem loving and kind and would never do anything to hurt us…and then you get them and they ‘burn you’ with a bad week every so often and you eventually hate them too.

That person, who I just described, owns Josh Gordon today…and wants to sell him for those reasons. A #1 WR talent re-entering a league that’s much more built for WRs than it ever has been…especially since he last was a star. He’s an ‘A’ you probably can buy for a ‘B’ price because ‘fears’. So what if he burns you too? Players burn us all the time. David Johnson just burned me this year. How’s Mike Evans doing for you? How much did I give up for Tarik Cohen after Week 2 this season? Sometimes your big move doesn’t love you back.

I’m not suggesting you send over a blank check for Gordon, I mean try to steal him for some hyped up names and see if you steal a WR1 for 2018+.

1) Joe Mixon – A week off with the concussion, before that a game shortened due to that in-game injury, and a downtrodden Bengals team in general – all of it will help people discount Mixon in their mind…forgetting the breakout he had 3 weeks ago. He’s not being given away, but he is available because people have started placing him in a ‘B’ talent box instead of the ‘A’ he will become.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Dez Bryant – Back-to-back TDs the last two weeks…cash out him with his eroding skills and potential NFL release or trade elsewhere in 2018. He’s going to be that big name veteran that plays for one team forever, then shows up in Cleveland or wherever for a season and is a disaster and is we all mock him. I want to sell Dez as a WR2 if at all possible and get into something else more viable/sustainable.

4) Kelvin Benjamin – Caught a TD pass in a snowstorm, and is now Calvin Johnson. NFL analysts love two players because they got traded – Kelvin Benjamin and Jay Ajayi, even though they were traded to worse situations (for their FF performance) and their original team just gave them away…which is a red flag, but not to football analysts. Sell this junk off…what Tyrod-to-Kelvin is going to be a thing?

3) Jay Ajayi – The football people LOVED Ajayi to Philly…RB1 calls all the way around. Three weeks later all those people are in hiding, but now they’re coming back for seconds because Wentz is out – so, to them, this means an all-Ajayi offense is coming. I can’t say it enough – Jay Ajayi sucks and that’s why he has sucked all year. But you might can sell him for an RB1.5 inflated price this week only before the balloon pops again.

2) Theo Riddick – Ameer Abdullah benched (finally) and Theo Riddick scores two TDs…it seems like it’s Riddick’s job now, which it is…but you want to cash out on that because it won’t be for long. A perfect player to sell off as part of a package or just solo to a team in need right now.

1) Jamaal Williams – Two TDs Week 14…left open for a receiving TD early on, and a short plunge run later. He wasn’t actually ‘creating any magic’. People might think THIS is the new franchise RB…we’ve gone from Ty Montgomery hysteria to Aaron Jones hysteria…back to Ty Montgomery hysteria to now Jamaal Williams delight. He’s the 3rd best RB on the depth chart when healthy. You’re at ‘peak Jamaal Williams’ this week…sell out if you can.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Falcons DST – Our hot tip of the week last week, in prep for the Falcons 11-day rest leading into their must-win game vs. failing Tampa Bay missing their two best OLs. Atlanta is like the Chargers right now according to The Computer only every football analyst LOVES LAC and is falling asleep on ATL…because they are ‘old news’, the hard-luck losers of the Super Bowl. Would we feel better about them if they had won?

4) Randall Cobb – In PPR, Rodgers sometimes makes Cobb a star in games…10+ targets in games when the opportunity is right. 5.8 catches per game in 4 games with Rodgers earlier this season.

3) Robbie Gould – Two games with Jimmy G. = 5 and 4 FGs…4.5 FGs per game. He’s been a great kicker all season and even better with Garoppolo. Great for this week, not so much Week 16 v. JAX.

2) Marquise Goodwin – Two games with Jimmy G. = 7.0 rec., 10.0 targets, 102.5 yards per game. Works next week fine vs. TEN, then no-go Week 16 vs. JAX.

1) Saints DST – A good Saints defense gets Bryce Petty now, instead of Josh McCown -- I’m in. If you need to win this week and you’re not so sure about your DST…get the Saints. The biggest one-week impact player you might get from free agency.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Tyrell Williams – Love the guy but his targets have been so erratic. I fear they sacrifice him to Marcus Peters this week, so they can throw to Keenan Allen 27 times, per usual.

4) Rod Smith – 2 TDs last week, but ‘so what’…one was a lucky dump pass turned 81-yard jaunt against a defeated Raiders team. I like Smith but he’s clearly not the primary RB for Dallas with Elliott out so it’s a high-risk move to try to catch lightning in a bottle again this week.

3) Wayne Gallman – Got some extra work with the new head coach but he’s still in a rotation. He’s still not that good. You’d have to be in a ‘reaching’ position to put this in your Week 15 lineup.

2) Kerwynn Williams – Not a legit workhorse back. D.J. Foster is preferred for passing downs and Elijah Penny for the goal-line…run from this ‘starter’ while AP is out.

1) Peyton Barber – I keep hearing Doug Martin is failing, and how good Barber looks…and that the Bucs are going to turn the backfield over to him. First off, Peyton Barber is terrible…as a talent. Second, the reason Doug Martin is failing is that the Bucs are terrible and now missing all their best OLs – so, I’m supposed to believe Barber is going to come in and be a star when Martin can’t. I don’t think so.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Nick Foles – Hey! He can play. He should be an NFL starter today, considering some of the guys starting in the NFL. Denver said, “No, thanks…we’re good.” He’s going to get two great matchups – NYG and Oakland the next two weeks.

How did he do last time he faced Oakland…hmmm…I’m trying to remember…oh, yeah – that’s the game he threw for 7 TDs/0 INTs in 2013.

4) Trent Taylor – For your stashes for next year…Taylor was starting to get some heat last week, a tiny few people were starting to put 2 & 2 together. Now, that mini-fire has been dowsed. When people wake up to this Garoppolo-Taylor potential in 2018, there will be no turning back.

3) Dallas DST – at Oakland this week…and the Raiders have looked horrible on offense the last few weeks. Really, anemic. If your free agent DST options have been drained of all the obvious choices…this might be a salvation. With Sean Lee playing, Dallas has one of the better defenses in the NFL. In every game Dallas has won this year, they’ve held their opponent under 20 points.

2) O.J. Howard – We had the first sign that OJH is pushing ahead of Cam Brate for Winston last week, finally. Perhaps, you need a TE2 ‘just in case’…or maybe you need a Hail Mary TE play for big upside because your current stuffy TE play is killing you…Kroft, ASJ, Witten, etc. Howard is a special talent that is capable of a big/shocking game if he can get the touches. 5 TDs this season. Three of last 4 games with 50+ yards.

1) Paul Richardson – You need a WR3 with WR2 upside…WR1 upside in nonPPR? Richardson is still trending as Russell Wilson’s top target of late…the same Wilson tearing it up at quarterback.

Targets the last 4 games:

8-7-4-7 (6.5 per game) = Richardson

6-3-7-6 (5.5 per game) = Baldwin

 

Rec. Yards the last 4 games:

56-70-08-72 (51.5 per game) = Richardson

40-25-84-78 (54.8 per game) = Baldwin

 

Rams-Cowboys next two games, safe matchups…where Richardson will see lesser coverage than Baldwin and may be the main target again for Wilson.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing (for this season)…

5) DeMarco Murray – He is beyond awful in an awful offense with a key O-L that’s gimpy. It’s been a terrible season for Murray. You’ll see him on waivers…don’t take the bait.

4) Rishard Matthews – If Mariota is toast, then there is little hope for the talented Rishard.

3) Zay Jones – Supposedly benched/demoted…playing for McDermott’s Bills sounds like a lot of fun. Poor Zay.

2) Marcus Mariota – Mariota looks terrible as a passer, and now has a knee issue that will at minimum make him not-run…and you don’t want not-running Mariota for fantasy.

1) Tion Green – If you thought you got a snowball’s chance at the Lions’ new starting RB…guess again. Week 14 should have been his opportunity, and he got 5 worthless carries. I told you he’s junk…

 

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**LAST WEEK’S NOTES**

 

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

*I get most people’s redraft trade deadline is past, but…

5) David Johnson – Memba him? If you’re out of it in dynasty – this should be your focal point…stripping him away from an owner maybe still in the race and needs/wants X for 2017 playoff push.

4) Samaje Perine – The rest of this season should be an audition for him getting 15-20+ carries a game to prep for 2018. Could be an RB1.5-2.0 shot in the FF playoffs for an RB2.5-3.0 price? Also, for dynasty – an investment in a guy who might be an RB1 next season.

3) Sterling Shepard – Kinda fell between the cracks the past few weeks with migraines, etc., but if Eli is back you want in on this for redraft ROS.

2) Jimmy Garoppolo – For your dynasty future, this is one of your last chances at a reasonable deal. No TD passes, and no one cares about the 49ers…they will soon enough and really will care in 2018.

1) Adam Thielen – People still don’t really believe. Every time he has a down FF-scoring game they think reality is setting in. Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous WR in the NFL. Adam Thielen is the BEST WR in the NFL…he just doesn’t have Big Ben throwing to him. Routes like Antonio. Size and athleticism like old-Julio (not current Julio). Great hands. He has it all except the surrounding offense. Make the investment for the future in dynasty…make a play for redraft if you can escape a trouble via schedule WR ahead.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Jamaal Williams – With Aaron Jones back – this is a split coming, or Jones takes the wheel. Long-term, Williams is not the answer. Trade him hot if you can.

4) Marvin Jones – IF the reports on Matt Stafford are sketchy but he’s going to give it a go…maybe you trade sideways out of Marvin into something safer for the playoff stretch.

3) Dede Westbrook – Marqise Lee you want from the Jags passing game, Dede you don’t-don’t. Will be a forgotten WR4 soon.

2) Dez Bryant – Scored a TD last week on TNF. It was pretty and on national TV. Maybe that memory can allow you to dump this guy for WR1.5-2.0 fluff value and get away from him. Hasn’t had over 75 yards in a game in his last 8 games. 1 TD in last 6 games.

1) Peyton Barber – No way. There is not a new star RB here. I cannot believe he rushed for 100+ yards Week 13. Facing weak run-D with Detroit Week 14 – so he will generate a lot of buzz. If you have him, trade him. If you have free agent opportunity – sign him to trade him if trades can still go on in your league. He’s a mediocre RB. If you are RB desperate…you can try him v. DET but then run after that.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5)  -- Honestly, I don’t have a 5th one I feel good about…so I’m not putting on just to put one on.

4) Cameron Brate – Winston + Brate = I can’t make this any clearer. I hope you got him as a TE2 last week if you need one.

3) Marquise Goodwin – Garoppolo’s #1 WR weapon…and it was ‘good’ in their debut.

2) Mike Davis – The obvious new #1 RB for Seattle. He’s very talented and can catch passes + Seattle has their best O-Line configuration healthy. Ecstatic with the potential upside here.

1) Josh Gordon – A guy with #1 WR skills/athleticism. He plays on a team with a QB firing it to him with no regard – any one-on-one coverage and Kizer is throwing it. The schedule ahead works – GB-BAL-CHI. I didn’t think they’d go so all-in on Gordon right away, I was wrong. He looks fine/normal running routes. Only Kizer’s inaccuracies will hurt. CLE will be down a lot and throwing a lot. He’ll see 10+ targets a game every week.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Josh McCown – Josh has been on a great run but has at DEN, at NO, LAC his final three games. Not great. Hurts Kearse and Robby as well.

4) Derrick Henry – Was barely a factor in Week 13. This is Demarco Murray’s scene and he looked better (still bad) than he has all year last week. Henry popped a late, long TD against a stacked defense trying desperately to stop the drive/clock.

3) Blake Bortles – Some people are whispering Bortles as a sleeper because 300+ yards and 2 TDs last week, and the schedule ahead is not so bad (SEA-HOU-SF). I just can’t trust Bortles…ever.

2) Kerwynn Williams – 90+ rushing yards and looked good doing it. My fear is – if AP is back, you can forget Williams ever existed. If I knew AP was out I’d buy-in a little, but I assume AP gets back in.

1) Tion Green – 4.79 40-time…that’s like a slow fullback. He’s not taking the lead in this backfield, and if he does…it won’t be for long.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Jets DST – Denver has announced Trevor Siemian starting…and that’s getting to be Kizer-worthy of an auto-start for the opposing DST. When the Jets have faced bad QBs…they’ve been pretty solid on defense. They’ve held MIA, JAX, CLE, BUF, TB to 21 points or less. They frustrated New England in Week 6. They only allowed 21 offensive to CAR two weeks ago (but gave up a D TD and PR TD). They got thumped early by KC and then shut them down before Tyreek struck them. Denver has no Tyreek…and no O-Line and no run game and no QB…

4) Stephen Anderson –  If you’re TE desperate, I suspect C.J. Fiedorowicz goes on IR and opens things up for Anderson who had 12 targets last week.

3) Trey Burton – If Ertz is out, Burton is a TE1 talent and projection for the week; simple as that.

2) Aaron Jones – He will wrestle that job from Williams at some point. Likely, a split between them but if Jones is pretty healthy…he is clearly superior.

1) Trent Taylor – Final warning because the world is starting to sniff around on this and they’re going to soon discover what we’ve been talking about for weeks – Taylor is Garoppolo’s ‘Edelman’. Goodwin is his ‘Cooks’.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing (for this season)…

5) Corey Davis – The Tennessee passing game is going into the dumpster every week. Davis had a chance to shine with Rishard Matthews out but instead, he’s disappeared. I’m not impressed with Davis so far. Rishard back this week would make it even worse for Davis’s targets.

4) Seth Roberts – This guy is a joke. If Amari Cooper misses the week…there will be Roberts and Johnny Holton talk…and man are they not good at being WRs. I get they may be forced targets but I want no part of it. I’ll take my WR desperation business elsewhere.

3) Mitchell Trubisky – Love him beyond words, but he is meaningless with John Fox at the helm. A coaching change might resurrect this a bit but until then…

2) Vernon Davis – Jordan Reed’s been gone for like a million years and he has not mattered for FF hardly at all.

1) Jordan Reed – He’s been gone for like a million years. If he’s not practicing again this week and ‘game-time decision’ talk again -- then, I’m out. I’m pretty much out anyway. What? Reed is coming back for a lost season…to do what? He had like one good game this season anyway. They should just shut him down.

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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