Week 15 Handicapping Group Picks: Blazing Five
Blazing Five YTD:
40-28-2 (58.8%) = Savage (2-3)
36-32-2 (52.9%) = Katz (3-2)
36-33-1 (52.2%) = Colin (4-1)
35-33-2 (51.5%) = Rabbitt (2-3)
33-35-2 (48.5%) = RC (2-2-1)
31-38-1 (44.9%) = Skol (2-3)
Man, I had 3-2 last week in my hand…and then the Vikings gave up that late score and pushed me. I’m liking the way my star system is identifying characteristics of teams…I’m picking a lot of winning team dogs and winning teams that are just missing covers. My downfall (all year) has been trying to get over with Arizona or Cleveland or going against Tennessee or Pittsburgh. I’m staying away from them as best I can…except I love Buffalo too much this week.
Here we go, 3-4+ wins this week, I can feel it…
SEA at CAR (+6.0)
I’m moving this to my #1 play of the week, and I previously loved (and still do) BUF and LAR this week. I bet the spread jumps in this to over -7.0 and maybe even 8.0. I got in -6.0 for Seattle.
The sentiment on this game is Carolina is quitting since Rivera got fired, and I think that is true but add two other things here…
1) Norv Turner is kinda helping run things…that’s a disaster.
2) Seattle has had a very difficult schedule in their last 7-8-9 games. Their defense has been improving but hidden by facing tough opponents – this is their biggest cupcake game in months.
Seattle needs this win and goes and crushes Carolina.
BUF at PIT (-2.0)
This was my former #1 play of the week, and it still is right there. My only hesitation is I have underestimated the Steelers all season. However, I think Buffalo is secretly one of the five best teams in the NFL and they go blowout a Steelers team with a limited offense.
LAR at DAL (+1.0)
I believe the Rams are peaking into a top 3-5 NFL team again, and Dallas is dying…this is a perfect storm. We all love things facing ‘quitting’ teams like Carolina and Jacksonville, but isn’t Dallas looking like a ‘quitting’ team? I love the Rams here.
*I’ve bet these first three games HEAVY to help save my underwater betting season…nice win% on actual bets, but underwater on money for amounts bet on what things. Going to turn that around this week.*
CHI at GB (-4.5)
I feel like I’m catching Green Bay in their collapse/getting exposed while the Bears are perking up.
ATL at SF (-10.5)
I’m willing to lay the points like I would the Ravens laying -16.0 to the Jets…superior teams that can score, can and will against bad teams. The 49ers offense is carrying them now, not their defense. I’ll ride that train to a cover/blowout for SF.
The 49ers have a lot of injuries, but the Falcons have some key injuries on the O-Line that makes it worse net-net, to me.
SKOL (Bet The Close, Podcast):
CHI +4.5...don’t love Smith and Trevathan out but do love getting Hicks back. I think the Bears party like it’s 2018 and play a close game...with a decent shot at an outright win here.
MIA +3.5...Earlier this season the Bills proved what happens when you go to Metlife and play a close game vs the Jets...then go back to Metlife the next week to play the Giants.
OAK -6.5...last game ever in the Oakland Coliseum (again)...betting that Gruden can pep talk this team into a 7+ point victory.
ATL +10.5...I think too many points to give the dirty birds with the emotional game SF just played and the Rams up next.
LAC +1.5...Chargers are finally healthy and look like the team that was supposed to compete for the AFC. The Vikings outdoors on grass, I fear they will let down their home fans on the road here.