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Week 16 Game Notes (those I didn't get to)

Date:
December 30, 2017

Hitting all the games I couldn’t fully write up this week…with a slant towards player activity for Week 17 considerations, as that’s the most pressing issue right now for those still playing in title games.

 

Wk16: Giants v. Cards

 -- Arizona is 3-2 in their last 5 games…now, 7-8…needing a win to end up 8-8 and send off Bruce Arians instyle – with a victory over their arch enemies. I think Arizona will play out of their minds against Seattle this week.

 -- The Arizona DST has allowed 17-25-7-20-0 (13.8 per game) offensive points the past five games, the 25 points coming against the great Rams offense. The Cards have had one of the best defenses the past 5 weeks and faces a wobbly, broken O-Line offense of Seattle this week. They’re a sleeper DST for Week 17.

 -- Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard out this week…so, any sleepers? Travis Rudolph could take a step forward – especially if he gets a bunch of time with Davis Webb.

 -- Kerwynn Williams (16-51-0) has had 16 or more carries in his last 4 games and done little with it. He’s just not a main carry RB.

 -- I love Davis Webb but he’ll likely play the 2nd-half with garbage WRs/TEs and no O-Line. Don’t expect much.

 

Wk16: Browns v. Bears

 -- Just note – I think the Cleveland Browns are going to give their best effort of 2017 in Week 17…a Super Bowl for them. One last chance to stop an 0-16 season. Playing a Steelers team resting stars. I think Mike Tomlin wants Hue Jackson to win the game…to save face. The Browns DST vs. a half of Landry Jones might be OK, but if they get a half of Josh Dobbs…it will be gold.

 -- Duke Johnson (7-81-0/7, 4-20-0) is back to RB1 PPR work again…5.3 catches and 71.0 total yards per game the last 3 weeks.

 -- Mitch Trubisky (14-23 for 193 yards, 7-44-1) keeps getting a little better each week…he played pretty well considering a crazy snowfall dropping all game. Made more impressive by his O-Line being devastated with injury and him taking 5 sacks, but playing with guts all game. Interested to see if he can put up a decent game at MIN with that bad O-Line this week.

 -- Tarik Cohen got 2 carries and 2 targets in this game – John Fox cannot get fired fast enough.

 -- Josh Gordon (2-19-0/8) was effected by the snow…and a terrible QB. He’s now tallied 14 catches on 39 targets (40.0%) in his return...terrible, but most all on DeShone Kizer. It will be different in 2018…if Gordon stays out of jail, etc.

 

Wk16: Lions v. Bengals

 -- Carries for DET RBs went 8 for Riddick, 7 for Tion G., and 6 for Ameer…I have no idea which one is ‘the guy’ for Week 17. I’d just avoid them all. If you had to guess one…Tion Green getting a bigger look might be the sneaky way to play it.

 -- Unless Jim Caldwell gets a contract extension pregame…he has a lot vested in winning this game and ending up 9-7. How can you fire a guy who has back-to-back winning season? I mean, they should…but they probably won’t. I’d bet on Stafford & friends playing this whole game if Caldwell is hanging in the breeze still.

 -- Joe Mixon (3-12-0, 2-20-0/3) returned from a concussion and was instantly the main guy Week 16…then he got injured again, and Gio Bernard (23-116-1, 7-52-0/7) took over. If Mixon comes back…this is a split workload Week 17, tilted towards Mixon, I believe.

 -- A.J. Green (6-81-0/10) has posted 85+ yards in a game just one time in his last 10 games.

 -- it looks like Ezekiel Ansah (7 tackles, 3.0 sacks) has found his mojo. After a 2+ season dry spell, Ansah has 5.0 sacks in his last 5 games.

 

Wk16: Bills v. Pats

 -- Tyrod Taylor (21-38 for 281 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) has 3 TD passes in his last 6 games.

 -- Dion Lewis (24-129-1, 5-24-1/5) has 90+ yards rushing in three of his last 5 games.

 -- Zay Jones has caught 5 of his last 20 targets…25 catches on 71 targets (35.2%) for the season, a horrendous season – he’s been used all wrong for most of the season. He’s not a deep-ball guy. He may be dead in Buffalo. Nathan Peterman at QB 2018 won’t help either.

 -- Yards in each game for Brandin Cooks (2-19-0/5) in his last 4 games: 17-38-60-19. Cooks has become a WR3 to finish 2017, sadly. Not a lot of momentum for 2018…IF Brady is back.

 -- IDP OLB Marquis Flowers (10 tackles, 2.5 sacks) has come out of nowhere in recent weeks, 5-1-10 tackles in games his last 3 games. 2.5 sacks in this one.

 

Wk16: Falcons v. Saints

 -- Devonta Freeman has rushed for 2 TDs in his last 9 games.

 -- Mohamed Sanu (4-31-0/6) has been under 45 yards receiving in 6 of his last 8 games.

 -- Drew Brees is on track for his lowest TD passes in a season effort since 2003 playing 11 games for the Chargers.

 -- Vic Beasley led the league with 15.5 sacks last season. He has 4.0 sacks this season going into Week 17.

 -- The Saints DST has held 10 of its last 13 opponents under 21 points in a game.

 

Wk16: Broncos v. Redskins

 -- Samaje Perine (17-53-0. 3-51-0/3) was not looking good to play Week 16, but he was active and fought all game. I think he may have finally earned Jay Gruden’s respect. Perine has been practicing in full all week…he should get a nice workload reward this week against a weakened opponent (NYG).

 -- C.J. Anderson (16-88-1, 7-45-0/9) needs 54 yards to hit 1,000 this season…so, he’ll start and get a lot of touches to get there and beyond this week.

 -- With Jay Gruden coming back…I don’t know that he pushes Kirk Cousins past a half of play. Colt McCoy may see some work in Week 17.

 -- Paxton Lynch really struggled in his first shortened start a few weeks ago, and now gets Washington in Week 17. I suspect he’ll throw every pass he can to Demaryius Thomas. The Redskins are a sleeper DST this week vs. Lynch.

 

Wk16: Bucs v. Panthers

 -- Peyton Barber (13-51-0, 2-4-0/2) has become the de facto ‘main RB’. He’s awful, thus the numbers you see. Unless he gets a 1-2 yard TD, he’ll be worthless Week 17 versus the Saints.

 -- Chris Godwin (3-98-0/6) went most of this game doing little as the full starter with DeSean Jackson out…and then a late, short slant pass turned into a 70-yard catch and run. Without that…no one would have even noticed him from this game.

 -- Devin Funchess (3-11-0/4) is averaging 2.0 catches for 15.0 yards on 4.0 targets per game the last two weeks. Like I’ve said…he’s not a ‘#1’.

 -- Before the season, I quipped that Christian McCaffery would get a crazy amount of touches because of the hysterical media forcing the O-C’s hand…and that then things would tail off once the coast was clear.

Weeks 1-8: 6.1 catches on 7.0 targets per game

Weeks 9-16: 3.7 catches on 5.6 targets per game

 -- Cam Newton’s TD passes in each game over his last 10 games: 1-0-1-0-4-0-2-1-4-0…seven of 10 games with 1 or 0 TD passes in a game.

 

Wk16: Raiders v. Eagles

 -- Hard to take away much from this game, except…it was cold and made passing game conditions very unfavorable. Most of the ‘cold’ games in Week 16 yielded underwhelming pass game results from QBs and WRs. Take note – there are several COLD games this weekend, and we’ve discounted performances along with the weather reports accordingly.

 -- Nick Foles (19-38 for 163 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is likely to play about a quarter with some starters before yielding to Nate Sudfeld…which is why I like the Dallas DST this week.

 -- Michael Crabtree (0-0-0/3) has flopped to the finish for Oakland. When they need him to come up big he got hirt at Denver and put up a zero. Weeks 14-15 he had 30 targets combined…but just 49.9 yards per game but did score 2 TDs Week 15. He put up a zero here. He’s just not a ‘#1’ talent.

In his last 9 games, Crabtree has posted more than 60 yards in a game once…83 yards vs. Buffalo Week 8.

 -- WR Mack Hollins would have had the most work with Nate Sudfeld if/when it comes down to it in Week 17.

 -- Fletcher Cox has 1.0 sacks in his last 7 games.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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