Blazing Five YTD:
41-32-2 (56.2%) = Savage (1-4)
38-35-2 (52.1%) = Katz (2-3)
38-35-2 (52.1%) = Rabbitt (3-2)
37-37-1 (50.0%) = Colin (1-4)
34-39-2 (46.6%) = RC (1-4)
32-42-1 (43.2%) = Skol (1-4)
A collective 9-21 record from the world’s premier handicappers this week…what a week here and abroad for handicappers. Even the man who has been killing it all season. Mr. Savage, got bit this week. It ain’t easy to get to 55%+ in a season long journey/five picks event like this. Heck 52%+ seems like a dream.
I only know this, now that the season is about to end -- I haven’t cracked the code for picking games ATS for sure. Deep analysis on teams, handicapping trends, tape scouting, injury report study, just doing the opposite of my gut, or trusting my gut – they’ve all found me back to 50-53% more times than not. The NFL is a fickle thing to try to figure out with a point spread involved.
I also know this…the 50% +/- results continue to drive me to try to figure out. To try to unlock a code, to find a better theory, a ‘whatever’. Does one exist? Or we will all be pulled back towards 48-52% inevitably? I’m going to keep trying into 2020…
OK, here goes for a 5-0 finish…just to get me back to .500 on the B5!!!
DET at DEN (-7.0)
I like the Broncos a lot here. The Lions are terrible, and the Broncos should be in the wild card hunt with a little luck. Drew Lock is playing well and this game is at Denver, so I’ll roll the Broncos by double-digits.
GB at MIN (-5.5)
I kinda love the Packers getting points here. A must-win game against two flawed teams…I’ll take the Aaron Rodgers side, especially with +5.5. Minnesota is tough at home but they shoulda lost to Denver at home a few weeks ago, and then sleep-walked past Detroit at home two weeks ago. The experience and ability of Rodgers vs. a dying secondary of MIN…I’ll take the points.
BAL at CLE (+10.0)
When in doubt, you take the Ravens to blow out the opponent at this stage…and this could be a 20-30+ point win for them this week.
BUF at NE (-6.5)
My model leans Patriots, but I just believe the Bills are top-to-bottom better than the Patriots, and I’ll take the +6.5 to watch and find out. The Bills have lost by more than six points just twice this year, one of them by seven to the Ravens recently. I’ll be pulling for my new favorite NFL team, so I’m not picking against them.
DAL at PHI (+2.5)
OK, I’ll bite. Dak not even on the injury report and the Eagles with even more mounting injuries. I’ll take the better team with a QB who the team can rally around. I would have gone LAR if not trusting Dak/DAL this week.