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Week 17 Dynasty-Fantasy Notes (12/27/18)...

Date:
December 27, 2018

Random Notes for Week 17 (THU 12/27/18)…

*Opening note: The last week was crazy with the title chase…and then this week with holidays – I owe some people emails, ones I set aside if not urgent sit-start/title help issues. If you are awaiting a response – I didn’t forget, I just had the open email forum for title week and was overwhelmed (which I’m proud I was). I’ll get back to everyone ASAP this week.

Notes:

-- Kyle Allen is starting for Carolina…thus we have to downgrade the Panthers weapons more for Week 17.

Taylor Heinicke was a downgrade from Cam, because of course he was -- but Heinicke was also experienced in the NFL circuit and well-connected to Norv Turner. Allen is a rookie with heart and a flimsy arm who would have little time with any of the #1s all season.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Carolina pulls back on Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore playing…why waste their time/risk injury with them. Allen would have worked more with backups. Samuel would have been interesting with healthy Heinicke, but not now.

-- So far, based on my communications – I’d say Marcus Mariota will not be able to go on Sunday Night Football…which means (if true) the Titans are going to try to run the ball or screen pass almost every play (not far off their norm).

Both Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis should see a ton of touches…but with risk that opponents focusing on Henry can stop him (like DJ and Fournette this year). Still, you have to play Henry for 25+ touches and as an RB1…the #1 RB this week.

No Mariota…the Colts-DST is a nice smoking hot play.

-- Can I ask…what happens if the Eagles win Week 17/make the playoffs and go beat the Bears (assumption) round one? How do the Eagles go forward with Carson Wentz? I mean, I know they will…but what happened to ‘the best player playing’? What happened to ‘he’s a winner’ forcing QB decisions?

As I theorized this preseason/post Super Bowl…Carson Wentz will have the ghost of Nick Foles chasing him for forever in Philly…IF Foles gets them to the playoffs and for sure if he wins a playoff game. The Foles legend rivals ‘Rocky’ and ‘Cheesesteaks’ in Philly lure.

I know the Eagles will go with Wentz, and thus Foles a free agent – but if Foles takes Philly to the playoffs, and stop there, then he’s 4-1 this season (Wentz 5-6).

Foles would also then be 8-1 in his last 9 games (incl. playoffs) he started/finished for Philly the past two seasons.

Foles would also be 10-1 in his last 11 start-to-finish starts in the NFL.

When Philly dumped him last time, he was 15-5 in his last 20 starts/finishes. Which means his last 31 starts/finishes for the Eagles, he’s 25-6 (.806) with a Super Bowl title and MVP. How does that not get you a starting job with Philadelphia in 2019?

You NFL people (coaches and GMs) are sick in the head…you work 25 hours a day, you destroy your families with your career and its pressures – all in the name of studying film and getting an edge to win games/a title…and right in the Eagles midst is an 80%+ winning starter at QB in his last 31 games, a proven Super Bowl winner…and they look right past him because ‘the future’.

The future? What the hell are you talking about – you can win Super Bowls right now? You bypass winning Super Bowls right now, so you MIGHT win one later? How does that logic work? It’s like I said to you…I have a free pass for you to go on Deal or No Deal to win a million dollars – do you want to go on the show in February 2019 or in February 2025, if it’s still on air? You go on right away for your money NOW!

Nahh…stick with the QB who ripped up his knee last year and broke his back this year. Sounds like a plan/future.

If Foles loses this week – the media and Eagles fans will throw Foles out with the bathwater.

-- Baker Mayfield v. Hue Jackson 2.0 and v. Colin Cowherd

What do I think?

I LOVE IT!!!

I’m not saying it’s preferred or better than a more mature Tom Brady OR Drew Brees leadership methodology…if I were an owner/GM/head coach. I’m just saying, Mayfield is the hand grenade needed thrown into the football establishment and for the Cleveland Browns’ fans.

If I’m the browns owner – I LOVE IT. I have my box office star…my Connor McGregor. I’m going to put asses in seats with Mayfield. Sam Darnold is the worst, and uninteresting, and will not garner national TV games and WILL have the stadium half empty for however many years he’s there. Not Mayfield…Baker Mayfield is Happy Gilmore – he’s best for business.

I know this, and why I love it so…because the establishment will HATE it and try to destroy Mayfield. The analysts and writers feed from the trough of the NFL coaches. They assign all the success/failure of everything to NFL coaches because they get all their terrible inside info from arrogant, loose lipped, egotistical, dim-witted NFL coaches – so, they have to kiss their rings publicly or they risk getting cut-off and losing a fat paycheck for parroting on air on Sundays: “Well, I talked to ___ and he said ___.” What would we do without, “I talked to ____ (coach) and THEY REALLY LIKE THIS KID!”

Players have to kiss the rings of coaches to get playing time…it’s not about their talent or proper talent evaluations, because the only people worse than NFL Draft analysts and NFL scouts at judging talent are NFL coaches (see: the Nick Foles story).

Mayfield will not kiss the ring…and that is going to drive the establishment crazy. Like him or hate him, you see what happens to Donald Trump when 90% of the media and politicians are against him ‘shaking things up’/interrupting their monarchy (Bush or Clinton) – the same thing/treatment will happen to Baker Mayfield for thumbing his noses at the establishment that has told him he is not good enough for the league…much less the #1 pick…or better than Tyrod Taylor. Everything Baker accomplishes will be downplayed and explained as luck or opponent or play calling or whatever (see: the Nick Foles story). For years, the NFL ruling class tried to protect Jameis Winston, and tell us that he was the future-best NFL QB. How’d that workout? Why do you trust the people who came up with that nonsense?

Winston has so many transgressions that the media can point to crucify him, and yet they are already writing ‘he learned from it’ pieces…actually they can recycle those pieces as Winston has supposedly been ‘learning from his mistakes’ every year since college. Mayfield’s crime, which rankles the NFL elites top-to-bottom…he taunts people who he may have great reason to taunt (I can only imagine how terrible Hue was to Baker behind-the-scenes). Someone should have taunted Hue Jackson the hell out of the league years ago…Mayfield is ‘speaking’ for all of us, without us knowing – Mayfield is telling the NFL how stupid they are for their Hue Jackson love and Mayfield skepticism…Mayfield’s glare is from all of us to the NFL establishment. Thank you, Baker.

We love it…the establishment doesn’t. The establishment likes good losers…Sam Darnold, Jim Caldwell, Hue Jackson. It hates ‘winners with attitudes’ – because they cannot control them. All you need to know about the NFL – they hired consultants/people a year ago (or so) to shape and spin Jameis Winston’s image to con us that we SHOULD like him that he’s GREAT…the Hard Knocks, the hardscrabble roots, the sit-down puff piece interviews, showing up on some commercials. Then the Uber news hit…

We’re not allowed to speak out about all the NFL problems…we can, legally, but we’re all a bunch of know-nothing dolts in their eyes. Baker Mayfield is speaking out for the voiceless – and that cannot happen. He must be stopped.

The Colin Cowherd angle on this? Let me re-remind…I have loved Colin Cowherd. Used to listen/watch every day practically. His ideas helped formulate the seeds of this FFM business.

Colin Cowherd USED to be the Baker Mayfield of NFL analysis/sports talk, in a way. The radical. The poke the bear…the reasonable attack dog on the NFL. That’s what gave me the ideas to start some alternative scouting and reporting. Now, Colin despises the same activity in Baker that Colin used to get to the top. Colin was genuine…a lone alternative NFL voice nationally with great vision on player scouting, franchise building, etc. The voice of the people attacking the NFL norm.

Now, Colin is the establishment…with the tragic comedy that he thinks he’s not. It happens to all of us…no one tells us when we ‘lost it’. It would happen to me the moment I stepped onto an ESPN set as a fantasy analyst. Colin got fired from ESPN, in part, for his outspoken views (NFL pressuring ESPN) and then debatably racial remarks. He then got paid a monster contract and moved to California and is unwittingly becoming interlocked with the establishment. Not because of the Mayfield incidents – he changed a while ago/before that. Hanging out with a different crowd of football people. Espousing theories on players that didn’t make sense to me…when Colin was always ahead of the curve years ago. Colin has lost his fastball. He’s still great, better than probably all…but he’s working change-ups more and fooling us more than bringing the heat.

I get why Colin dislikes Baker for the NFL…in a business sense. It makes sense…you want a politician QB. But it also doesn’t make business sense.

Why do QBs have to follow the Tom Brady model? The Peyton Manning model? Peyton Manning won two Super Bowls…Nick Foles has half that with years to go. It’s hard to win a Super Bowl. Baker Mayfield is going to (already has) ignite a city, but more importantly – ignite a team, ignite players to come to Cleveland…which they could never do before. He’s perfect – he’s going to be a ‘show’. Sam Darnold is going to lose games and put you to sleep…Baker Mayfield will win and fill stadiums. So what if he never wins a Super Bowl? Philip Rivers never will…and Chargers’ stadium is half empty every week and the team left their city prior for lack of support.

Hue Jackson lost games at a historic pace his entire Cleveland head coaching tenure…and for 2+ years all the national analysts defended his unprecedented losing.

Hue left, Baker rises up and does nothing but win since – and Baker is attacked for ‘not winning the right way’.

The football media hates the winner for winning the way he’s winning and love the loser losing all the time…because they pre-loved the loser and won’t admit the error.

You (the establishment) take a good loser who perpetually loses – enjoy your Jim Caldwell and Mike McCarthy hiring’s. I’ll take the loud mouth winner…whether it’s Buddy Ryan or Jim McMahon or Baker Mayfield. I’ll take Brady-Belichick first, but not too far into the draft of such things…I’ll taker Baker Mayfield as my leader all the way – you take Rivers, Darnold, Flacco, Kaepernick, Luck, Rosen, Bortles, Mariota, Winston, Alex Smith et al.  

The media loves if team’s change offenses/franchises for the NFL-unorthodox QB Lamar Jackson, but would hate if you proposed changing an organization around Mayfield’s brashness.

In a violent, brash sport/league filled with tough guys…why wouldn’t you want the QB-king of tough guys?

I’ll take Baker…you take Trubisky (NFL-wise). And you know how talented I think Trubisky is. Give me the guy who has no fear. If lack of respect for shitty coaches is part of that Mayfield package – OK, fine be me. If picking fights with radio show hosts get him (and the team) fired up…then pick away. Mayfield, like Trump, is the playing the room brilliantly to ‘win’, when no one thought they could. They don’t need 100% support…they need 50% undying, run through a brick wall support. The 50% of people that hate them actually works into their master plan.

This Mayfield media ‘hate’ will extend into the offseason and be reflected in the dynasty/fantasy ratings and valuations of Mayfield, and the win-total over/unders and Super Bowl odds of the Cleveland Browns. Our opportunity, as football profiteers, is buy this great stock they all sell/try to bankrupt.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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