Handicapping Group Records YTD:
3-2 = Rabbitt
3-2 = RC
3-2 = Colin
2-3 = Katz
2-3 = Savage
1-4 = Skol
I want all of us to take down the great, and he is truly great at handicapping, Colin Cowherd in the Blazing Five records this season. Not a bad start for the group. Skol is usually a top guy here, so he’ll make up ground quick.
SEA at PIT (-4.0)
The Computer says: PIT by 13.1…Spread Differential 9.1
If Joe Haden is fine…this is the #1 bet of the week ATS. The Steelers could have Pouncey and Sean Davis back for this game too.
ARI at BAL (-13.5)
The Computer says: BAL by 5.1…Spread Differential 7.9
My earlier commentary on this stands:
My commentary on this line… If the Ravens had played the Pats and lost by 30 on SNF (and they would have)…what would this line be for Week 2? Ravens -6-8? You’re giving me +13.5 with a potential offensive machine that won’t quit late and could backdoor cover? The Ravens may be down their top two CBs for this game (Jimmy Smith done, Humphrey ‘Q’).
Humphrey being out would be huge for Arizona and the fantasy impact.
PHI (-1.5) at ATL
The Computer says: ATL by 5.2…Spread Differential 6.7
Late breaking big rise for ATL for us. The Falcons were more misfortunate than bad last week, and the Eagles were semi-lucky against a bad Washington team. The Eagles defense is not great, especially their pass coverage is terrible and the Falcons should eat them alive through the air. At home + points, I take the ATL.
NO at LAR (-3.0)
The Computer says: IND by 3.3…Spread Differential 6.3
This has stayed as The Computer’s #1 pick all week. The Computer is convinced this is where the Saints try to send a message to the Rams. And that the Saints pressure and the Rams new-ish O-Line won’t mesh well for the Rams, not like their usual efficient selves. This game is huge for home field in the playoffs…possibly determining the Super Bowl because if it goes through New Orleans, that’s a big advantage to the Saints.
LAC (-2.5) at DET
The Computer says: DET by 3.8…Spread Differential 6.2
So many LAC injuries…a lucky OT win LAC team from last week. The Lions played better than the ‘feel’ from the Arizona game. The Cards got a bit lucky and Kyler is a magician. We’ll take the home dog.
Lions +2 - The Chargers had a difficult time protecting the QB and stopping the run at home in week 1, not things you want in a road favorite. I thought Detroit's defense looked fast and disciplined for most of the game against Arizona, they just ran out of gas near the end. I'm not a fan of Matt Patricia and Darrell Bevell, but if they let Stafford throw the ball as much as they did in week 1, this will be a Lions win.
Packers -3 - Kirk Cousins attempting only 10 passes in a win might be my favorite stat of week 1. The Packers' defense is legit, as good as or maybe even better than the Vikings. So in a matchup of two good defenses, how do you not take Aaron Rodgers at home over Cousins?
Redskins +5.5 - This is a bit of an overreaction to Dallas's nice week 1 performance against an awful Giants defense. The Redskins looked competent on both sides of the ball last week and should be able to keep this game close.
Broncos +2.5 - I'm going back to the well with Denver after they let me down last week. The Broncos are typically much better at home and Vic Fangio should be able to scheme something up to stop Trubisky and the Bears offense.
Jaguars +8.5 - The lookahead line was +3, so we're seeing a 6 point move based on last week's results and the downgrade of Foles to Minshew. As much as I love Foles, I thought Minshew looked pretty competent in relief last week and the line shift is a bit too much.
PIT -4.0. This is my lock of the week. Everyone is up in arms over how terrible the Steelers looked last week, which they did. But they always struggle in New England. They're back home and Home Ben is better than Road Ben. Big time bounce back coming against a team that will do everything in it's power to try and lose, just like they did last week, but came up short.
DEN +2.0. The Packers were my lock of the week last week. I love the Broncos this week. 2019 is the season of fading the Bears. The Bears are going 6-10, at best. They are bad. Mitch is bad. And the Broncos were not nearly as bad as people think on Monday night. The Bears do not get their first win on the road and the Broncos do not fall to 0-2 at home.
CIN -1.5. The Bengals almost, and probably should have, beaten the Seahawks in Seattle last week. Now they return home looking to level their record to 1-1 against a 49ers team that is not starting 2-0 on the road.
NYG +2.5. Another team that is not starting 2-0 on the road is the Buffalo Bills. I could be wrong here. The Giants may just be the worst team in the NFL. If that ends up being the case, I'm happy to be wrong. I don't think I am.
ATL +1.5. Will the Falcons fall to 0-2? Probably not. Will the Eagles move to 2-0 with a road win against a good offense. I don't think so. Narrative street 101 here.
Survivor Pick: New England
IND +3...TEN went from nobody liking them to possibly best defense in the league in 60 minutes! I think the defense is good but the offense is a question mark. Jacoby has a poor record as a starter but two years ago that Colts team that led in the 4th quarter in 9 of 15 of those games...this 2019 team is better and have had the Titans number.
ARI +13...I was very ready to bet against a rookie QB in his first road start. Instead I’ll grab the inflated points. Jimmy Smith is out so the Ravens CB depth will be challenged when ARI spreads them out. L. Jackson is being baptized after a game where he attempted 20 passes which were all either screens or bombs. The combo of the Ravens running up the score last game, Chiefs on the schedule next week and and worst case Kyler back door is what got me here.
MIA +18.5...Patriots are 5-0 SU in games where they are favored by 18+ but 0-5 ATS. Maybe they want revenge from last year (or the last couple of years) but if they are up 24 I can see the Dolphins caring and he Pats just wanting to get out of there. All makes sense in my mind, but perhaps this year’s Dolphins are a glitch in the Matrix.
JAC +9...Just “no” to the Texans being favored by 9. Minshew looked good the entire time (not just garbage time as I heard reported). Fournette fumbled a reception early in the 2nd half and that put the Jags way behind to stay. I’ll be on the money line too, just in case the Jaguars D decides to try to stop the other team.
KC -7...Don’t love road favorites, this is just a play against the Raiders after winning their Super Bowl. Any time a coach takes a victory lap high diving fans, I’ll be on the other side the following week.